The tickers
where the board leans on every ticker it has an opinion on — contribution = conviction × (primary 1.0 / adjacent 0.5) × the play's own direction (long +1 / short −1). Ideas sharing a ticker stack or cancel. Track record counts closed ideas where the ticker was the primary play (hit 1 · partial 0.5 · miss 0).
492 / 492
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway green | ▲ bullish | primary | 86.5 | +86.5 |
| Nvidia risk: special-purpose silicon + Huawei dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 54.7 | +54.7 |
| The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 30.5 | +30.5 |
TRACK RECORD · 10.0/17 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -213%
RIGHT · vs SPY +10%
RIGHT · vs SPY +233%
RIGHT · vs SPY +165%
RIGHT · vs SPY +459%
WRONG · vs SPY -211%
WRONG · vs SPY -228%
RIGHT · vs SPY +13%
WRONG · vs SPY -122%
WRONG · vs SPY -84%
RIGHT · vs SPY +17%
RIGHT · vs SPY +17%
WRONG · vs SPY -75%
RIGHT · vs SPY +43%
RIGHT · vs SPY +40%
WRONG · vs SPY -148%
RIGHT · vs SPY +41%
RIGHT
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
HALF
HALF
HALF
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 6.5/22 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -78%
RIGHT · vs SPY +45%
HALF · vs SPY +3%
WRONG · vs SPY -19%
WRONG · vs SPY -14%
WRONG · vs SPY -60%
RIGHT · vs SPY +26%
WRONG · vs SPY -49%
WRONG · vs SPY -81%
WRONG · vs SPY -74%
WRONG · vs SPY -61%
RIGHT · vs SPY +9%
HALF · vs SPY +3%
WRONG · vs SPY -45%
RIGHT · vs SPY +7%
WRONG · vs SPY -19%
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
HALF · vs SPY -2%
WRONG · vs SPY -45%
RIGHT · vs SPY +8%
WRONG · vs SPY -43%
WRONG · vs SPY -86%
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
HALF
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 37.7 | +37.7 |
| Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 18.3 | +18.3 |
| Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 47.9 | +47.9 |
| SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 24.0 | +12.0 |
| ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 21.2 | +10.6 |
TRACK RECORD · 5.5/13 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +43%
RIGHT · vs SPY +42%
WRONG · vs SPY -82%
RIGHT · vs SPY +18%
RIGHT · vs SPY +23%
RIGHT · vs SPY +9%
WRONG · vs SPY -23%
WRONG · vs SPY -22%
WRONG · vs SPY -12%
WRONG · vs SPY -24%
HALF · vs SPY +2%
WRONG · vs SPY -37%
WRONG · vs SPY -42%
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left green | ▲ bullish | primary | 75.6 | +75.6 |
| The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 64.8 | +32.4 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/5 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -15%
WRONG · vs SPY -71%
RIGHT · vs SPY +14%
HALF · vs SPY +4%
WRONG · vs SPY -11%
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 86.5 | +43.2 |
| DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 42.4 | +21.2 |
| Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 54.7 | +27.3 |
| The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 30.5 | +15.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T green | ▲ bullish | primary | 91.2 | +91.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 55.4 | +55.4 |
| Tort floodgates open on social media ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 20.4 | -20.4 |
| Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 6.4 | +6.4 |
| Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 18.3 | +9.2 |
| The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 30.5 | +15.3 |
| Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 49.3 | +24.6 |
TRACK RECORD · 13.0/20 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -87%
WRONG · vs SPY -40%
RIGHT · vs SPY +61%
RIGHT · vs SPY +61%
RIGHT · vs SPY +69%
RIGHT · vs SPY +82%
WRONG · vs SPY -119%
WRONG · vs SPY -135%
RIGHT · vs SPY +116%
WRONG · vs SPY -151%
WRONG · vs SPY -227%
RIGHT · vs SPY +152%
RIGHT · vs SPY +151%
RIGHT · vs SPY +64%
RIGHT · vs SPY +55%
RIGHT · vs SPY +32%
RIGHT · vs SPY +10%
HALF · vs SPY -27%
RIGHT · vs SPY +11%
HALF · vs SPY -13%
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher watch | ▼ bearish | primary | 84.8 | -84.8 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon as a long-term compounding hold ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 26.9 | +26.9 |
| Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 18.3 | +9.2 |
| Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 47.9 | +23.9 |
| Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 93.5 | +46.8 |
| Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 49.3 | -24.6 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/6 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -17%
HALF · vs SPY -19%
WRONG · vs SPY -25%
HALF · vs SPY -10%
HALF · vs SPY -1%
WRONG · vs SPY -70%
HALF
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle green | ▲ bullish | primary | 77.9 | +77.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 64.8 | +64.8 |
BWX
State Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF
etf
21.39
▼-0.51%
NET CONVICTION
-59.2
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond vigilantes hit Western Europe: French OATs to 5.5-6%, UK gilts to 6% watch | ▼ bearish | primary | 59.2 | -59.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 34.3 | -34.3 |
| Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks green | ▲ bullish | primary | 93.5 | +93.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer watch | ▼ bearish | primary | 55.0 | -55.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 47.9 | +47.9 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +89%
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 93.5 | +46.8 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 91.2 | +45.6 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 86.5 | +43.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 42.9 | +42.9 |
TRACK RECORD · 6.0/12 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +58%
WRONG · vs SPY -42%
RIGHT · vs SPY +67%
RIGHT · vs SPY +70%
RIGHT · vs SPY +50%
HALF · vs SPY -6%
WRONG · vs SPY -43%
WRONG · vs SPY -113%
WRONG · vs SPY -18%
HALF · vs SPY -3%
WRONG · vs SPY -11%
RIGHT · vs SPY +7%
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 42.4 | +42.4 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +203%
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 68.5 | +68.5 |
| US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 55.0 | -27.5 |
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nike's $200B collapse is structural, not cyclical ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 40.0 | -40.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 39.5 | -39.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 77.9 | +38.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 20.3 | -20.3 |
| Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 59.2 | +59.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left green | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 75.6 | +37.8 |
TRACK RECORD · 3.0/4 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +85%
RIGHT · vs SPY +30%
RIGHT · vs SPY +54%
WRONG · vs SPY -15%
RIGHT
WRONG
HALF
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 68.5 | +34.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 68.5 | +34.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 34.2 | -34.2 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -47%
WRONG · vs SPY -50%
HALF · vs SPY -4%
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond vigilantes hit Western Europe: French OATs to 5.5-6%, UK gilts to 6% watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 59.2 | -29.6 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond vigilantes hit Western Europe: French OATs to 5.5-6%, UK gilts to 6% watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 59.2 | -29.6 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond vigilantes hit Western Europe: French OATs to 5.5-6%, UK gilts to 6% watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 59.2 | -29.6 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 28.4 | -28.4 |
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 55.0 | -27.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 55.0 | +27.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 55.0 | -27.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web2 buyouts: the flaccid-asset M&A wave ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 26.9 | +26.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice watch | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 49.3 | -24.6 |
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/4 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY -15%
RIGHT · vs SPY +20%
WRONG · vs SPY -69%
RIGHT · vs SPY +35%
WRONG
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 49.3 | +24.6 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 47.9 | +23.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout watch | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 47.9 | +23.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short nuclear: SMRs miss the economic window ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 22.9 | -22.9 |
TRACK RECORD · 3.0/5 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY -17%
RIGHT · vs SPY +49%
HALF · vs SPY +8%
HALF · vs SPY -6%
HALF · vs SPY -18%
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decentralized AI compute (Bittensor/TAO) ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 21.2 | +21.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nike's $200B collapse is structural, not cyclical ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 40.0 | +20.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nike's $200B collapse is structural, not cyclical ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 40.0 | +20.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 39.5 | -19.8 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +81%
WRONG · vs SPY -23%
HALF · vs SPY -20%
RIGHT
RIGHT
HALF
HALF
WRONG
HALF
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 34.3 | -17.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 34.2 | -17.1 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/2 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -31%
WRONG · vs SPY -70%
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
HALF
HALF
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 34.2 | -17.1 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 34.2 | -17.1 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 17.0 | -17.0 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -45%
WRONG · vs SPY -13%
RIGHT · vs SPY +42%
RIGHT
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 16.8 | +16.8 |
TRACK RECORD · 2.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -99%
RIGHT · vs SPY +30%
RIGHT · vs SPY +5%
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 16.2 | +16.2 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 13.8 | +13.8 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web2 buyouts: the flaccid-asset M&A wave ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 26.9 | +13.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 13.4 | +13.4 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 13.0 | -13.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple: the AI dark horse via local models watch | ▲ bullish | primary | 47.0 | +47.0 |
| Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice watch | ▼ bearish | primary | 49.3 | -49.3 |
| ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 21.2 | -10.6 |
TRACK RECORD · 6.5/14 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -60%
RIGHT · vs SPY +6%
WRONG · vs SPY -3%
HALF · vs SPY +0%
HALF · vs SPY +16%
HALF · vs SPY -1%
RIGHT · vs SPY +18%
HALF · vs SPY -19%
WRONG · vs SPY -59%
WRONG · vs SPY -55%
HALF · vs SPY -2%
RIGHT · vs SPY +23%
WRONG · vs SPY -74%
RIGHT · vs SPY +38%
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endowment liquidity crunch forces discounted private-equity secondaries dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 12.0 | -12.0 |
TRACK RECORD · 3.0/8 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +15%
RIGHT · vs SPY +10%
WRONG · vs SPY -58%
WRONG · vs SPY -80%
WRONG · vs SPY -49%
WRONG · vs SPY -17%
WRONG · vs SPY -30%
RIGHT · vs SPY +5%
WRONG
HALF
HALF
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 24.0 | +12.0 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -111%
RIGHT · vs SPY +11%
HALF · vs SPY +1%
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The debasement trade: USD is 2026's worst asset dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 10.9 | -10.9 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -27%
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
WRONG · vs SPY -32%
WRONG
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software ember | ▲ bullish | primary | 24.0 | +24.0 |
| The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 ember | ▼ bearish | primary | 34.3 | -34.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (and critical metals) goes parabolic dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 9.8 | +9.8 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 9.4 | +9.4 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -38%
WRONG · vs SPY -70%
RIGHT · vs SPY +108%
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 17.0 | -8.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 17.0 | -8.5 |
TRACK RECORD · 2.0/5 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +23%
RIGHT · vs SPY +23%
WRONG · vs SPY -28%
WRONG · vs SPY -54%
WRONG · vs SPY -57%
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk ember | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 17.0 | -8.5 |
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 16.8 | +8.4 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 16.2 | +8.1 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -43%
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock ember | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 16.2 | +8.1 |
LVMUY
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne
stock
90.96
▼-2.82%
NET CONVICTION
-7.9
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brands go to zero — pricing power erodes dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 7.9 | -7.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 13.4 | +6.7 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 13.4 | +6.7 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 13.0 | -6.5 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/5 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -12%
WRONG · vs SPY -9%
WRONG · vs SPY -82%
RIGHT · vs SPY +36%
WRONG · vs SPY -21%
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 13.0 | -6.5 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endowment liquidity crunch forces discounted private-equity secondaries dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 12.0 | -6.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endowment liquidity crunch forces discounted private-equity secondaries dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 12.0 | -6.0 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (and critical metals) goes parabolic dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 9.8 | +4.9 |
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (and critical metals) goes parabolic dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 9.8 | +4.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 9.4 | +4.7 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 8.5 | +4.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock dormant | ▲ bullish | adjacent | 8.5 | +4.3 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities are the biggest dollar short of the distributed-energy era dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 4.2 | -4.2 |
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +9%
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brands go to zero — pricing power erodes dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 3.0 | -1.5 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/2 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -27%
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
RIGHT
RIGHT
RIGHT
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 3.0 | -1.5 |
TRACK RECORD · 12.5/26 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -6%
WRONG · vs SPY -131%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -34%
HALF · vs SPY +0%
RIGHT · vs SPY +38%
RIGHT · vs SPY +27%
WRONG · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -49%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -11%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
HALF · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -58%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
HALF · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -21%
WRONG · vs SPY -25%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -32%
WRONG · vs SPY -36%
RIGHT · vs SPY +0%
WRONG · vs SPY -46%
WRONG
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 3.0/5 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +15%
HALF · vs SPY -15%
RIGHT · vs SPY +28%
WRONG · vs SPY -70%
RIGHT · vs SPY +40%
RIGHT
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/5 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -15%
RIGHT · vs SPY +17%
RIGHT · vs SPY +21%
WRONG · vs SPY -5%
HALF · vs SPY -4%
RIGHT
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/4 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -35%
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
HALF · vs SPY -18%
WRONG · vs SPY -19%
WRONG
HALF
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/4 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +20%
HALF · vs SPY -2%
RIGHT · vs SPY +37%
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/4 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +96%
HALF · vs SPY -27%
RIGHT · vs SPY +45%
WRONG · vs SPY -39%
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/4 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +43%
RIGHT · vs SPY +10%
HALF · vs SPY -17%
WRONG · vs SPY -171%
HALF
HALF
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/4 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -43%
WRONG · vs SPY -27%
HALF · vs SPY +2%
WRONG · vs SPY -35%
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -9%
WRONG · vs SPY -34%
WRONG · vs SPY -30%
RIGHT
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
HALF
TRACK RECORD · 2.0/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +83%
RIGHT · vs SPY +105%
WRONG · vs SPY -284%
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +25%
HALF · vs SPY +3%
WRONG · vs SPY -35%
RIGHT
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -38%
HALF · vs SPY -20%
WRONG · vs SPY -41%
RIGHT
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 2.0/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +29%
HALF · vs SPY -7%
HALF · vs SPY -15%
RIGHT
HALF
HALF
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -30%
HALF · vs SPY -12%
WRONG · vs SPY -30%
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 2.5/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +17%
RIGHT · vs SPY +64%
HALF · vs SPY -18%
HALF
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -42%
WRONG · vs SPY -64%
RIGHT · vs SPY +178%
WRONG
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD · 1.5/3 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +97%
HALF · vs SPY -4%
WRONG · vs SPY -37%
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/3 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +1%
WRONG · vs SPY -32%
WRONG · vs SPY -61%
HALF
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -4%
WRONG · vs SPY -36%
RIGHT · vs SPY +42%
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +11%
WRONG · vs SPY -15%
HALF · vs SPY -1%
WRONG
RIGHT
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/3 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -42%
RIGHT · vs SPY +128%
WRONG · vs SPY -108%
WRONG
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -68%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +80%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -129%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +34%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -63%
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control dormant | ▼ bearish | primary | 0.0 | -0.0 |
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -26%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -42%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -266%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +71%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +20%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +20%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +2%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -51%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +8%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -74%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -49%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -30%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -35%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -26%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -63%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -13%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -20%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -5%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +37%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -38%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -46%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +54%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -129%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +26%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -29%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -48%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -14%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -51%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -33%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -45%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -25%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -61%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -65%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +56%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +6%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY -0%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -38%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -29%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +51%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -29%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -4%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -3%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +6%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -75%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +30%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -15%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -16%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +50%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY -14%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -5%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +8%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -36%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +10%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -13%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY +5%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +22%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -77%
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -17%
TRACK RECORD · 0.5/1 as primary:
HALF · vs SPY -7%
XLY
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
etf
117.58
▼-0.05%
NET CONVICTION
+0.0
TRACK RECORD · 0.0/1 as primary:
WRONG · vs SPY -66%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +71%
TRACK RECORD · 1.0/1 as primary:
RIGHT · vs SPY +96%
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 0.0 | -0.0 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms dormant | ▲ bullish | primary | 0.0 | 0.0 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 0.0 | -0.0 |
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
| active idea | dir | relevance | conviction | contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control dormant | ▼ bearish | adjacent | 0.0 | -0.0 |
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
TRACK RECORD:
HALF
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
TRACK RECORD:
WRONG
TRACK RECORD:
RIGHT
XOP
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
etf
173.77
▼-0.19%
NET CONVICTION
+0.0