-9.5
net board stance
what this means
47.93
+4.1% · close 2026-09-08
+7% / +9% / +21%
1m / 3m / 12m
+50%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
43%
of 52w range · -22.5% off high
1/5
hit rate as primary · α +3
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚡ Short nuclear: SMRs miss the economic window CONTESTED | ▼ SHORT | primary | 9.5 | -9.5 | — | 122d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on URA
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 4 partial / 0 miss over 5 closed windows — credit 0.6, average α +3.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +37.0% | -18.2 | 2025-01-20 |
| ⚡ Nuclear is the fastest path to carbon neutral — uranium is being cornered | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | -2.4% | +8.2 | 2022-06-13 |
| ⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +8.3% | -6.4 | 2023-07-08 |
| ⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025 | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +64.8% | +48.7 | 2026-01-04 |
| 🛢️ Uranium (URA) is the best-performing asset of 2024 | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +10.0% | -17.0 | 2025-01-06 |
| ⚡ Energy-transition capital flows under a national-security frame, not a climate frame | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -34.0% | -63.5 | 2024-08-25 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding URA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
by the time any of these SMRs actually get near production, the TCO of solar will be like $10 or $12 per megawatt hour, and it will be 80% of all the power generation. It'll make no sense by the time SMRs get online. ... That reactor won't even get turned on until 2030 The entire world will be covered by solar by then, so it won't matter.
that's if you assume no shift in the demand curve. ... going to 8 terawatts of production by 2040 ... I really do question whether we can pin everything on solar. ... at some point here, there's an inflection that we have to meet.
Massively short nuclear... they've missed the window. By the time they deliver working SMRs at scale, the marginal cost of electricity will effectively be zero because of solar and storage... large form factor nuclear reactors make zero economic sense by 2032 or 2035... it just does not hang together mathematically.
EL
Elon Musk
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025
E249 · 2025-10-31
▶ 1:27:56
Generally, people don't welcome a nuclear reactor in their backyard... If people want to have fun with reactors, that's fine, have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the Sun. It's a fun science project... it's just peanuts compared to the Sun.
These are these very clean, meltdown proof nuclear energy production systems that are being deployed at scale in China now, and the US doesn't have any, and we have no path to getting these deployed.
PH
Phil Deutch
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025
E238 · 2025-08-09
▶ 22:05
So just to give credit where credit's due, I think all the stuff we're seeing on the small modular reactors at some level, owes its renaissance to AI and the energy demands of AI.
We have a trillion dollars now that we can put into nuclear power plants and these small modular reactors and that's what Lutnick said he wanted to spend it on.
scaling energy production, I personally think we need to fix the regulatory roadblocks in nuclear. And Chris Wright's been very vocal on this.
I mean, electrical production is fundamental to AI. If we do not significantly increase kind of domestic energy production and electricity generation, you know, we're already at a disadvantage to China. And I do think we want to close that kind of electrical generation gap as quickly as we can. You know, natural gas is great. Nuclear is great. Solar is great. Batteries are great. We need it all.
but what I'm hopeful for is it creates a natural market force for nuclear and that we actually see a better proliferation in nuclear, which Secretary Wright has said, and President Trump signed these EOs a couple of weeks ago, to reduce the regulatory burden on nuclear and increase the ability for nuclear to proliferate much more quickly than has been the case historically.
I still worry that with nuclear, the issue won't be the federal regulations. I think that it's good that the president cleaned it up. The real problem is going to be the local and state regulators and how quickly they're willing to turn these on. And the reality is that these are 10-year projects. And so even if you say go from today, the earliest these things can be turned on, really, in 2032, 2033 That's far too late.
The entire country knows that we need to win the AI race. The numbers are the numbers. You put up a chart like that, Thomas, and there's only one way for us to win, and that's to build more nuclear power plants.
I will tell you that there is a lot of capital, and we mentioned this last time, a lot of intellectual capital in the United States that's eager, hungry and ready to get moving on build out. The only thing that's challenged and the only thing that's holding it back is regulatory challenges, regulatory roadblocks.
TH
Thomas Laffont
support ×3
▲ on
⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025
E212 · 2025-01-25
▶ 1:28:54
So, you know, we expect and we think just the trend generally towards nuclear energy is going to continue. It's been proven in China. It's been proven in Europe. I think it will show to be a key part of the AI kind of arms race
My most anticipated trend is the announcement of buildout of nuclear power in the United States in 2025... nuclear is an inevitability... I know a lot of very smart people who have left very good jobs to start nuclear power companies in anticipation of this happening in 25. So I'm very bullish.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 15:39
This is a key national security thing, too, because we need manufacturing here to be affordable and competitive in order for national security
which is the increment in electricity production capacity in China compared to the United States. And so we are going from one terawatt to two terawatts. They're going from, I think, two to eight over the same time period, and they're doing it at a price
Maybe it's not such a bad thing that other countries are taking the early adopter risk of this technology.
But if China runs away with this and they have so many of these running, and then they're able to power AI and solve problems were not, we're going to have to get our act together and start standing these up.
We can fix that tomorrow. We already rely on a nuclear reactor that works, and to Sacks' point, it just happens to be millions of miles away.
If China races towards five cents per kilowatt hour for electricity, and we're sitting here at 20 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity, what's that going to do to our economic competitiveness?
But fundamentally, we are going to need to use uranium to make electricity to meet the demand of the growing GDP that it seems we're going to be growing it.
China has more electricity production. It's cheaper to make electricity and it's cheaper to build new capacity and they're building at an accelerated rate.
China's building 150 nuclear reactors and they're only spending about $2,500 a kilowatt.
I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry, largely of the left. When instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together.