🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 50:17 SUPPORT

“But it really highlights the fragility of our global supply chain. ... centralized by finding the lowest cost possible, but it loses all of its durability.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:53 SUPPORT

“a little bit more inefficiency, a little bit more inflation, a little bit more redundancy will allow us to be resilient. And maybe that's what we really want.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 56:41 SUPPORT

“We were so concerned about short-term profit maximization that we offshored our entire pharmaceutical production and PPE manufacturing to China, which then said that they might ration it to us based on geopolitical concerns. No, thank you. So yeah, that is penny wise and pound foolish, the absolute definition.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 56:19 SUPPORT

“there is something to having the redundancy in your home and the supply chain and obviously drugs, which we witnessed during the pandemic.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 55:40 SUPPORT

“But it allows us to actually reestablish and rejuvenate the industrialized rust belt of America. We just have to spend the money. ... have literally a trillion dollars allocated to reestablishing entire supply chains across critical industries that we want to own”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:02 OPPOSE

“We're rebranding the same old social programs as infrastructure because the politicians know that's one of the last categories of spending that's still popular. I mean, it's not going to go to the right things.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 59:56 OPPOSE

“That's my point. It's not. No, no, no, it's not. That's my point. ... And I think that that's what I mean is we're missing this opportunity.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 17:33 SUPPORT

“I think this is the most important macro investing theme that I've seen in my lifetime, which is that globalization, as we know it, is over. And what Saxie Poo just said is what I really believe, which is that you have to onshore and you have to move to a place where you value resiliency over just in time. And if you look at the businesses that need to get built in order to enable resiliency, you will see trillions of dollars of opportunity.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E34 (2021-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 15:57 SUPPORT

“At a minimum, we need to decouple ourselves from China with regard to anything that's a vital American interest. We cannot be dependent on them for the manufacturing of our PPE, for our antibiotics, for our pharmaceuticals. It is insane.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:09 SUPPORT

“The 90-day sort of window that they've given the Chinese to kind of give us an answer as to what happened here is window dressing. And then we're going to start the process of becoming more independent from China.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E46 (2021-09-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 45:42 SUPPORT

“when you guys hear an Intel press release that says they're investing 90 fucking billion dollars, do you not think where does Intel come up with 90 billion dollars? ... This is a pull through from US government because it allows us to start to rebuild an enormous amount of critical infrastructure that we've left to other people.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E51 (2021-10-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 22:26 SUPPORT

“And we're now seeing on the other side, Walmart, Home Depot, Target and other big retailers integrating their supply chain to get product into stores. ... And so we're going to see a lot of investment, I think, by businesses that make product or deliver product to the consumer as they try and integrate the supply chain problem themselves.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E51 (2021-10-16) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 24:45 SUPPORT

“the Taiwanese semiconductor company is doing a $7 billion project to build a new factory in Japan, funded by the Japanese government. So we're seeing a lot of redundancy and we're also seeing the middle class grow.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E57 (2021-12-04) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 36:20 SUPPORT

“myself and Fortress, we did this deal a few, a year ago to bring this company public called MP Materials. And the whole idea was to start to build diversity in the supply chain, to build a decentralized supply of all kinds of things. ... we have massively under-invested in the level of infrastructure we need to support ourselves.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E63 (2022-01-15) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 20:29 SUPPORT

“I think I'm spending a lot of time and money actually trying to fortify America's supply chain. You guys know about some of the things that I'm doing. ... I'm not doing that from a moral perspective. I'm doing that from a practical capitalist perspective.”

Ryan Petersen (regular guest ×1.0) macro: 4 resolved, unproven · E66 (2022-02-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:52 OPPOSE

“In my view, that would be a shame if we we have the best companies in the world who need to be able to source raw materials, components, finished goods anywhere on planet Earth. And we should have a modern infrastructure that makes that possible instead of being like, oh, we can't trade with the rest of the world. So we're going to become like self-sufficient. ... But you're right. That might be an end result is people can't rely on these supply chains and start saying, hey, let's manufacture at home or let's manufacture in Latin America. Let's manufacture closer to home. To my perspective, that would be a shame.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E66 (2022-02-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:36:34 SUPPORT

“And so we have to make sure we follow through on that and that's successful. And the reason is that it gives us optionality. ... And so we have to invest in the United States. So the solution to all of these things is we cannot be overly dependent on any one country, any one shipping lane, any one product, any one natural resource. You just can't do that anymore.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:05 SUPPORT

“We have woken up from a delusion that we can intertwine our economies with rich and nuclear powered dictators in communist countries, both China and Russia. And now I think the great decoupling and the great independence is upon us with us moving semiconductors back on shore, going nuclear.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 31:37 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo

“I think the big trend for the next decade or two, everyone's going to have like an institutional memory of this ... you're going to see companies that are going to start to vertically integrate supply chains ... I think the near-term trend is in de-globalization. People making less capital-efficient decisions that create redundancy in supply chains. There's a lot of ways as investors to play that, by the way.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:06 SUPPORT

“trade creates economic wealth, but it also creates dependency, and we're realizing the downsides of having that dependency ... we are going to have to rethink all those trade relationships. You can't have trade without trust”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E72 (2022-03-19) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:12:26 SUPPORT

“the new war is the war on our dependency on dictators. We must have a race to resiliency.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E73 (2022-03-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:06 OPPOSE

“So we have this interconnected world, this idea that we're de-globalizing. ... What we do doesn't impact anybody else. That ship has sailed a long time ago, and the Chinese see this.”