🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E152 (2023-11-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:33 SUPPORT

“if what we think is now this is just a version of conflict, timeout, and the market de-risks that, then it's actually pretty positive for equities, for startups”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E152 (2023-11-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 21:31 SUPPORT

“So if you believe that we're going to be in a cycle of rate decreases and that whole thing has played its way out, then everything's going to rally.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:05 SUPPORT

“If you see a quarter point rate cut in Q1, a trillion of the $5.7 trillion in money market accounts will rip into the market.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:17 SUPPORT

“Just people knowing that they're on the way down, that they've peaked and are on the way down is going to unlock a lot of capital.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:43 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I think now what the setup is for 2024 is basically we will melt up up until the first cut and then there'll probably be some real selling.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:20:12 OPPOSE

“We could be pulled into a war in the Middle East at any time. We still have a proxy war going in Ukraine. ... So there are a lot of risks still on the horizon.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E163 (2024-01-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 3:42 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“when we look back 18 to 24 months from now, the market will probably be materially higher because there's just so much money on the sidelines... I think that all roads lead to a continued melt up.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E163 (2024-01-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 11:03 SUPPORT

“People will take money that's sitting in cash, as you've pointed to, Chamath, there's trillions of dollars sitting in cash. And they want to look for some returns, some alpha. They're going to put it into markets.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E167 (2024-02-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:36 OPPOSE

“What's happening in the war is that the Russians just took this city of Deikha, which basically totally refutes the whole stalemate narrative, as I've been saying for a while. It's not a stalemate. The Russians are winning ... Why do I think this is a big deal? Because if something like this happens, it could really expand the Ukraine War ... this could lead to a major escalation in the war.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:02:39 SUPPORT

“I think the point is that I think there is a speculative party going on right now. And I'm not saying that Reddit is part of it, but whenever these things are so mispriced, it just means that people are ready to gamble a little bit.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:13:20 OPPOSE

“This really has the risk of tipping over into policy, I would say, in a Biden second term, where Biden agrees to do what our European allies are already calling for, which is send in NATO troops to Ukraine to save Ukraine from what Politico calls an imminent collapse. I think this is a very dangerous situation. I mean, we're really talking about here is World War III.”