🌍 Risk-off window: November to February
Markets enter a 2-3 month risk-off/rebalancing phase — capex-ROI anxiety, early tax-loss harvesting, year-end consolidation — before returning 'firmly risk-on in February'. Bitcoin breaks $100K to the downside with another 5-10% to run.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 55.5 WATCH
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT SPY
expression · bearish macro
WRONG
result · return -3.2% · vs SPY -6.5%
2026-02-07
born 2025-11-07 (E250) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
QQQ ·
It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
LONG
GREEN 75.6
← stronger than this idea (40.0)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-11-07 → 2026-02-07 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SPY (primary play). SPY rose 3.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -3.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +3.2%
→ vs SPY = -3.2 − (+3.2) = -6.5%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +0.0% — did SPY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.(SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone | proxy-sensitive: BTC-USD→HIT (+33.0%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-11-07)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
macro 50% · n=10
· E250 (2025-11-07) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 39:46
SUPPORT
· horizon 3mo
“Early in the year... Altimeter was positioned small... By May... we went to kind of extra large positioning and we've been there most of the year. And so now we're back to kind of medium, medium small positioning in the market... There's a pause as we head in over the course of the next couple months.”
Chamath
macro 53% · n=47
· E250 (2025-11-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 6:37
SUPPORT
· horizon 3mo
“To be clear, we are very much getting into a phase of risk-off... We will be back firmly in risk-on mode in February, is my suspicion... Bitcoin is about to break through 100,000 to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another 5% or 10% more to run.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -17.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E250 2025-11-07 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E250 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E250 2025-11-07 | reinforce | +14.6 | 49.6 | E250 Brad Gerstner support x2 (new voice) |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -2.0 | 47.6 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | reinforce | +7.9 | 55.5 | E252 Chamath support x2 |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -2.2 | 53.3 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -2.1 | 51.1 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -2.0 | 49.1 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -2.0 | 47.1 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.7 | 41.7 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E260 silent |