| idea | category | result | return | vs SPY |
|---|
| 🛢️ Battery metals are the best-performing asset of 2022 |
commodities |
WRONG |
-29.21% |
-10.81% |
| 📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax |
equities |
HALF |
3.91% |
22.3% |
| 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up |
crypto |
RIGHT |
64.17% |
82.56% |
| 🌍 Fed ending QE drains liquidity-dependent assets in 2022 |
macro |
RIGHT |
66.78% |
85.17% |
| ⚡ Global conflict era begins — energy and defense outperform |
energy |
RIGHT |
62.71% |
81.1% |
| 🌍 American exceptionalism soars and the economy booms in 2022 |
macro |
WRONG |
-33.16% |
-14.77% |
| 🏦 2023 is the year debt markets unravel — EM sovereigns first |
rates |
WRONG |
-5.6% |
-28.0% |
| ⚡ US natural gas industry wins 2023 — Europe is now a captive LNG customer |
energy |
HALF |
18.5% |
-3.91% |
| 🤖 Google Search is 2023's biggest business loser as AI answers erode it |
tech |
WRONG |
-55.4% |
-77.81% |
| 📈 Gig/supply platforms win 2023 as unemployment gets sticky |
equities |
RIGHT |
118.11% |
95.7% |
| 🏦 Inflation stays sticky in 2023 — the wage chapter |
rates |
HALF |
5.27% |
-17.13% |
| 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 |
rates |
HALF |
5.01% |
-17.39% |
| 📈 Infrastructure-spend compounders are the best asset of 2023 |
equities |
WRONG |
-0.44% |
-22.84% |
| 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks |
equities |
WRONG |
-12.16% |
-34.56% |
| 🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class |
rates |
WRONG |
-7.74% |
-30.14% |
| ⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023 |
energy |
WRONG |
-0.26% |
-22.67% |
| 🤖 Tech has another tough year in 2023 |
tech |
WRONG |
-48.62% |
-71.03% |
| 🌍 2023 marks the beginning of the end of dollar reserve dominance |
macro |
WRONG |
-4.52% |
-26.92% |
| 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 |
commodities |
WRONG |
3.94% |
-23.12% |
| 🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024 |
tech |
HALF |
12.02% |
-15.03% |
| 🌍 German economy is 2024's biggest business loser |
macro |
WRONG |
-12.4% |
-39.46% |
| 🤖 Smartphone manufacturers slow as consumers skip generations |
tech |
WRONG |
-32.68% |
-59.73% |
| 🏦 Regional banks still sick — Fed must extend BTFP |
rates |
WRONG |
-19.73% |
-46.79% |
| 🤖 Inference cost collapse deflates OpenAI, LLM startups and Nvidia's multiple |
tech |
WRONG |
-186.06% |
-213.11% |
| 🛢️ Uranium (URA) is the best-performing asset of 2024 |
commodities |
HALF |
10.01% |
-17.04% |
| 📈 Long public software, short late-stage private SaaS |
equities |
HALF |
28.02% |
0.97% |
| ⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation |
energy |
HALF |
7.48% |
-19.58% |
| 📈 Consumer comfort services (DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber) best asset of 2024 |
equities |
RIGHT |
77.65% |
50.6% |
| 📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024 |
equities |
HALF |
13.72% |
-13.34% |
| 🪙 Bitcoin's most important year ever — ETFs take it mainstream |
crypto |
RIGHT |
132.05% |
105.0% |
| 🤖 Apple makes huge AI gains in 2024 (contrarian) |
tech |
RIGHT |
32.68% |
5.63% |
| 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware |
tech |
HALF |
6.57% |
-9.52% |
| 🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025 |
tech |
RIGHT |
26.41% |
10.32% |
| 🪙 Dollar stablecoins are 2025's biggest business winner |
crypto |
WRONG |
-17.8% |
-33.9% |
| 🤖 Google's AI comeback pays off in 2025 |
tech |
RIGHT |
60.71% |
44.61% |
| 📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025 |
equities |
RIGHT |
33.65% |
17.55% |
| 📈 Mag-7 concentration unwinds — trillions in drawdown |
equities |
WRONG |
-17.03% |
-33.13% |
| 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 |
equities |
WRONG |
-33.37% |
-49.47% |
| 📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers |
equities |
WRONG |
4.41% |
-11.69% |
| 🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset |
tech |
RIGHT |
218.81% |
202.72% |
| 🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS) |
macro |
WRONG |
-14.98% |
-31.07% |
| 🤖 The software industrial complex cracks in 2025 |
tech |
WRONG |
-0.92% |
-17.02% |
| ⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025 |
energy |
RIGHT |
64.82% |
48.72% |
| 📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025 |
equities |
WRONG |
3.73% |
-12.37% |
| 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset |
equities |
RIGHT |
94.25% |
74.23% |
| 📈 Robinhood keeps compounding — product velocity plus retail loyalty |
equities |
WRONG |
-16.3% |
-38.29% |
| 🛢️ US state-backed critical-minerals champions win |
commodities |
WRONG |
-21.1% |
-41.69% |
| 📈 The CRE refinancing wall bites — buildings go back to the banks |
equities |
WRONG |
0.14% |
-20.45% |
| 🌍 Risk-off window: November to February |
macro |
WRONG |
-3.23% |
-6.47% |
| 🌍 COVID crash goes deeper — no V-shaped recovery |
macro |
WRONG |
-65.5% |
-131.01% |
| 🌍 Rapid reopening: weeks, not months |
macro |
RIGHT |
29.65% |
0.0% |
| 🌍 Eurozone collapses, Japan finished, dollar is the only safety |
macro |
WRONG |
-79.17% |
-144.67% |
| 🌍 Vaccines ship in Q4 2020 |
macro |
RIGHT |
116.57% |
96.73% |
| 📈 Facebook short: ad boycott + political-ad ban |
equities |
WRONG |
-46.62% |
-87.01% |
| 📈 Point-of-care antigen testing scales — BD wins |
equities |
WRONG |
-1.62% |
-42.01% |
| 🌍 Fed at zero for half a decade — get paid to be long equities |
macro |
RIGHT |
34.1% |
0.0% |
| 📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex |
equities |
RIGHT |
45.0% |
10.9% |
| 🌍 COVID a distant memory by summer 2021 |
macro |
RIGHT |
48.59% |
20.31% |
| 📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture |
equities |
HALF |
10.44% |
-27.38% |
| 🌍 Dem sweep of Georgia runoffs cracks the market 30-40% |
macro |
WRONG |
-17.01% |
-34.02% |
| 📈 GameStop mania ends very badly for late buyers |
equities |
RIGHT |
56.48% |
37.45% |
| 📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash |
equities |
RIGHT |
26.84% |
13.07% |
| 🌍 More market volatility, not less |
macro |
WRONG |
-63.28% |
-77.06% |
| 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates |
macro |
RIGHT |
37.24% |
23.55% |
| 🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement |
crypto |
WRONG |
-31.49% |
-45.19% |
| 🏛️ Australia's news code spreads and platforms end up paying publishers |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-4.38% |
-18.07% |
| 🌍 Conditioned fear keeps behaviour suppressed after vaccination |
macro |
HALF |
11.56% |
-2.13% |
| 🤖 Bottom-up SaaS is the dominant mode of business software |
tech |
RIGHT |
23.68% |
9.98% |
| 📈 Rising rates de-rate high-multiple growth stocks |
equities |
RIGHT |
44.92% |
30.2% |
| 📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies |
equities |
RIGHT |
18.39% |
7.32% |
| 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) |
macro |
RIGHT |
57.68% |
42.95% |
| 🌍 US labor boom: unemployment to 3-4% within two quarters |
macro |
WRONG |
4.57% |
-14.9% |
| 🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld |
politics-market |
HALF |
10.52% |
-4.2% |
| 🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble |
crypto |
RIGHT |
30.88% |
23.49% |
| 🪙 Everything with a title gets blockchained |
crypto |
RIGHT |
30.88% |
23.49% |
| 🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30% |
commodities |
RIGHT |
13.9% |
6.52% |
| 🤖 SaaS pricing power expands as category winners entrench |
tech |
WRONG |
-10.72% |
-18.1% |
| 🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored |
macro |
HALF |
16.87% |
0.99% |
| 📈 Movie theaters do not go out of business |
equities |
RIGHT |
95.56% |
79.67% |
| 🏛️ Section 230 moderation mandates are regulatory capture that entrench the incumbents |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-23.73% |
-39.61% |
| 📈 The SPAC boom's back end breaks into the 2022 shot clock |
equities |
RIGHT |
55.88% |
57.81% |
| 📈 Archegos unwind stuffs the prime brokers with billions of losses |
equities |
RIGHT |
20.52% |
5.98% |
| 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus |
politics-market |
HALF |
6.77% |
8.79% |
| 🏛️ Infrastructure trillions get captured by the contractors |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
13.93% |
8.64% |
| 🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes |
tech |
WRONG |
-6.19% |
-10.42% |
| 🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years |
tech |
RIGHT |
97.3% |
14.18% |
| 📈 Direct listings top-tick on the opening print — sell day one |
equities |
RIGHT |
55.77% |
48.94% |
| 📈 Amazon is exceptionally cheap against the consumer surplus Prime delivers |
equities |
WRONG |
-10.02% |
-16.85% |
| 📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off |
equities |
WRONG |
-2.22% |
-9.05% |
| 🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law |
politics-market |
HALF |
3.58% |
0.0% |
| 🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
57.24% |
53.66% |
| 🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade |
politics-market |
HALF |
2.6% |
2.78% |
| 📈 Amazon's ad business passes AWS within three years |
equities |
HALF |
5.71% |
-19.34% |
| 🏛️ Free community college squeezes the for-profit colleges |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
12.96% |
13.15% |
| 🌍 America's accidental UBI creates a national labor shortage and throttles growth |
macro |
RIGHT |
16.67% |
17.47% |
| 🤖 Synthetic biology's Netscape moment |
tech |
WRONG |
-59.2% |
-62.56% |
| 🪙 Crypto survives the May 2021 regulatory correction |
crypto |
WRONG |
-19.22% |
-13.39% |
| 📈 Inflation scare peaks — rebirth of growth by the fall |
equities |
HALF |
12.76% |
3.96% |
| 🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-8.87% |
-3.05% |
| 🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
58.44% |
64.27% |
| 📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled |
equities |
RIGHT |
19.56% |
19.87% |
| 🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state |
tech |
WRONG |
-25.3% |
-24.99% |
| 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress |
equities |
RIGHT |
42.34% |
42.65% |
| 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney |
equities |
WRONG |
-38.25% |
-37.94% |
| 📈 Telcos go back to being dumb pipes — and that's a bad business |
equities |
WRONG |
-5.26% |
-4.95% |
| 🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails |
crypto |
WRONG |
-28.46% |
-28.15% |
| 🏦 Inflation may not show up — breakevens are rolling over |
rates |
WRONG |
-14.42% |
-14.11% |
| 📈 FDA's loosened approval bar creates markets — capital floods the biotech complex |
equities |
WRONG |
-53.67% |
-43.01% |
| 📈 Builders green-light supply once the inflation boogeyman dies |
equities |
WRONG |
-20.06% |
-9.4% |
| 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two |
tech |
WRONG |
-34.62% |
-23.96% |
| ⚡ Solar wins alternative energy — nuclear and wind lose |
energy |
WRONG |
-14.79% |
-4.14% |
| 🏛️ Big tech gets regulated as common carriers via a left-right deal |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
50.33% |
60.9% |
| 🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model |
tech |
RIGHT |
50.33% |
60.9% |
| ⚡ Brutal 2021 western fire season plus grid brownouts |
energy |
WRONG |
-17.84% |
-29.42% |
| 🏛️ Antitrust breaks Apple's App Store gatekeeping and 30% take rate |
politics-market |
HALF |
-7.03% |
0.23% |
| 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter |
macro |
RIGHT |
29.99% |
37.26% |
| 🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal |
macro |
WRONG |
-9.06% |
-20.15% |
| 📈 The IPO cohort outperforms the S&P after listing |
equities |
WRONG |
-52.46% |
-41.77% |
| 🏛️ Washington intervention in retail fintech is the real overhang |
politics-market |
HALF |
8.79% |
19.47% |
| ⚡ Distributed backup power boom — generators and rooftop solar |
energy |
WRONG |
-47.16% |
-37.68% |
| 🛢️ Western water scarcity repriced water rights and infrastructure |
commodities |
WRONG |
-13.15% |
-3.66% |
| 🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers |
commodities |
RIGHT |
15.08% |
24.56% |
| 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus |
equities |
RIGHT |
44.61% |
54.09% |
| 📈 Boosters become routine — recurring revenue for the mRNA vaccine makers |
equities |
WRONG |
-28.52% |
-36.99% |
| 📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters |
equities |
WRONG |
-70.23% |
-72.73% |
| 🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years |
tech |
HALF |
34.66% |
-51.56% |
| 🤖 3D printing has enormous upside as space manufacturing |
tech |
WRONG |
-60.91% |
-51.47% |
| 🤖 Electric bikes reshape cities |
tech |
WRONG |
-74.36% |
-64.91% |
| 🤖 AlphaFold's open proteome kickstarts a drug-discovery wave |
tech |
WRONG |
-36.23% |
-27.31% |
| 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down |
macro |
RIGHT |
23.89% |
28.6% |
| 🤖 In-vivo CRISPR proof point starts programmable biology |
tech |
WRONG |
-54.35% |
-49.63% |
| 🛢️ Carbon permits and carbon tariffs put a real price on emissions |
commodities |
RIGHT |
24.75% |
29.46% |
| 📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO |
equities |
WRONG |
-74.25% |
-69.54% |
| 📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack |
equities |
RIGHT |
21.84% |
26.56% |
| 📈 Zymergen's implosion impairs the whole synthetic-biology cohort |
equities |
RIGHT |
65.44% |
70.67% |
| 📈 Buy-now-pay-later is a feature, not a company |
equities |
RIGHT |
50.28% |
55.51% |
| 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers |
equities |
WRONG |
-71.28% |
-157.11% |
| 🏛️ Financial deplatforming becomes the next big political fight |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
65.9% |
71.13% |
| 🪙 Tether is a fraud and the peg breaks |
crypto |
HALF |
0.03% |
5.26% |
| 📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer |
equities |
RIGHT |
30.81% |
39.91% |
| 📈 Low-diligence capital breeds a fraud wave in the venture-backed cohort |
equities |
RIGHT |
55.4% |
67.28% |
| 🏛️ Regulatory and IP capture keeps US healthcare incumbents' rents intact |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
25.17% |
35.07% |
| 🏛️ Infrastructure-bill tax credits make the captured solar incumbents rip |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-13.71% |
-3.81% |
| 🏛️ China takes Taiwan and the silicon chokepoint forces US intervention |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
34.09% |
43.99% |
| 🏛️ Facebook Files become a tobacco-style liability event |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
58.87% |
68.7% |
| 📈 Liquid biopsy is the one blood-diagnostic thesis that actually works |
equities |
WRONG |
-54.37% |
-44.54% |
| 📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple) |
equities |
HALF |
0.12% |
15.53% |
| 📈 2021 is the peak of the risk-capital golden era |
equities |
RIGHT |
54.15% |
69.56% |
| 🪙 Solana is the layer-1 that challenges Ethereum |
crypto |
WRONG |
-79.01% |
-63.73% |
| 🪙 Picking individual tokens loses money — own managed/indexed crypto instead |
crypto |
RIGHT |
81.33% |
96.61% |
| 🏦 Fed and ECB are in a much tighter posture a year from now |
rates |
RIGHT |
31.01% |
49.83% |
| 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase |
macro |
HALF |
-7.24% |
11.58% |
| 🌍 Supply-chain crunch tips the US into 1970s-style stagflation next year |
macro |
RIGHT |
18.82% |
37.63% |
| 🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex |
tech |
WRONG |
-52.56% |
-33.74% |
| 📈 Trump's SPAC is a grift that does not hold its valuation |
equities |
RIGHT |
80.0% |
96.6% |
| 📈 Asset-light mega-cap software is the inflation hedge |
equities |
WRONG |
-32.9% |
-18.74% |
| 🪙 Meme coins are a blow-off top — take chips off the table |
crypto |
RIGHT |
81.54% |
95.7% |
| 📈 Airbnb beats the airlines as a travel spread |
equities |
WRONG |
-52.03% |
-33.5% |
| 📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers |
equities |
WRONG |
-46.48% |
-27.95% |
| 📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds |
equities |
WRONG |
-90.81% |
-72.28% |
| 📈 Zillow's iBuyer collapse is structural, not a stumble |
equities |
RIGHT |
52.82% |
71.35% |
| 📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality |
equities |
RIGHT |
76.63% |
90.09% |
| 🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk |
macro |
RIGHT |
13.45% |
26.91% |
| 🏛️ Escalating global conflict becomes the political outlet for inflation |
politics-market |
HALF |
1.33% |
14.78% |
| 📈 Deconglomeration wave - activists break up conglomerates and unlock value |
equities |
WRONG |
-18.75% |
-5.29% |
| 🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive |
crypto |
WRONG |
-54.14% |
-54.32% |
| 🤖 Deep physical science and R&D is the one long-duration bet still worth buying |
tech |
WRONG |
-39.98% |
-30.01% |
| 🌍 Conforming-loan expansion inflates home equity into a HELOC-fuelled bust |
macro |
WRONG |
-45.68% |
-81.74% |
| 🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade |
tech |
RIGHT |
64.79% |
82.1% |
| 📈 Private capital concentrates in a few mega-GPs that take themselves public |
equities |
RIGHT |
15.55% |
10.37% |
| 📈 EBV-causes-MS proof turns Epstein-Barr into a funded therapeutic target |
equities |
WRONG |
-73.91% |
-62.62% |
| 📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close |
equities |
WRONG |
-19.4% |
-10.86% |
| 📈 Ocean freight stays broken - capacity shrinks again and rates go higher |
equities |
WRONG |
-47.83% |
-41.52% |
| 📈 Over-ordering unwinds into an inventory glut that craters mid-market retail |
equities |
HALF |
4.79% |
11.1% |
| ⚡ Europe has to replace Russian gas — US natural gas and LNG export is the answer |
energy |
RIGHT |
24.43% |
30.38% |
| 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy |
equities |
RIGHT |
55.12% |
61.07% |
| 🌍 Sanctions blow a hidden hole in leveraged counterparty books |
macro |
WRONG |
-13.49% |
-11.68% |
| 🌍 Holding the sanctions line pushes the pain onto emerging markets |
macro |
HALF |
5.74% |
7.81% |
| 🤖 CRISPR patent chaos gets routed around by open source |
tech |
RIGHT |
30.97% |
33.04% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine ceasefire is weeks away — markets rally on the deal |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-17.32% |
0.0% |
| 📈 Late-stage private marks reset 30-60% — down-round IPOs become the norm |
equities |
RIGHT |
37.93% |
49.66% |
| 📈 Quality software grows through the de-rating — Snowflake |
equities |
WRONG |
-42.12% |
-30.4% |
| 📈 Rate-arbitrage fintechs implode as their cost of capital rises |
equities |
RIGHT |
37.95% |
49.67% |
| 🤖 The ad duopoly ratchets prices and makes its numbers through the startup bust |
tech |
WRONG |
-25.46% |
-13.74% |
| 🌍 US population stall - births plus immigration collapse throttles the economy |
macro |
RIGHT |
12.66% |
20.74% |
| 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year |
commodities |
HALF |
-5.57% |
2.51% |
| 🪙 Decentralized collateral-backed stablecoins have proven peg-resilient |
crypto |
HALF |
0.11% |
2.28% |
| 📈 Coinbase's regulated-first franchise makes it a great business |
equities |
WRONG |
-56.31% |
-54.14% |
| 🏛️ $10K student-loan forgiveness lands as a half-trillion consumer stimulus |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-13.16% |
-15.21% |
| 🌍 Consumer credit bubble bursts into a credit crisis |
macro |
RIGHT |
24.11% |
19.92% |
| 📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital |
equities |
RIGHT |
59.87% |
53.78% |
| 📈 Logistics real estate becomes a core institutional asset class |
equities |
WRONG |
3.59% |
-2.55% |
| 🌍 Nearshoring to Mexico as China's cheap-labour edge disappears |
macro |
RIGHT |
20.83% |
14.7% |
| 📈 Wall Street earnings estimates are wrong - the E resets, not just the multiple |
equities |
WRONG |
-24.34% |
-48.69% |
| 🪙 Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave |
crypto |
WRONG |
-238.56% |
-281.94% |
| 🌍 Europe eats the bill - energy crunch reopens the EU sovereign debt crisis |
macro |
WRONG |
-19.28% |
-32.15% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine endgame is an organized negotiated detente, not a Ukrainian win |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
12.87% |
0.0% |
| 🏛️ Crypto collapse triggers a regulatory crackdown that kills the opportunity |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-52.17% |
-71.59% |
| 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort |
equities |
WRONG |
-16.23% |
-35.65% |
| 📈 Stock-based comp and Evergreen dilution get repriced |
equities |
WRONG |
-28.31% |
-47.73% |
| 🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors |
rates |
HALF |
7.86% |
-11.56% |
| 🤖 Bottoms-up SaaS hits a growth wall — only the scaled platforms escape |
tech |
RIGHT |
55.19% |
35.77% |
| ⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated |
energy |
HALF |
8.3% |
-6.38% |
| 🏦 Inflation hasn't peaked and the terminal rate is above what's priced |
rates |
HALF |
9.71% |
-11.11% |
| 📈 ProKidney's autologous cell therapy for chronic kidney disease |
equities |
RIGHT |
26.8% |
5.97% |
| 🏛️ CHIPS Act capex subsidy is corporate welfare that doesn't fix Intel |
politics-market |
HALF |
9.7% |
-6.62% |
| 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs |
macro |
HALF |
9.39% |
-6.93% |
| 🌍 Factory exodus from China to Vietnam and India as Chinese wages hit $6/hr |
macro |
WRONG |
-0.26% |
-16.58% |
| 📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack |
equities |
HALF |
6.19% |
-10.13% |
| 📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts |
equities |
WRONG |
-23.33% |
-36.05% |
| 📈 Telehealth keeps its COVID share gain while e-commerce mean-reverts |
equities |
WRONG |
-23.31% |
-36.03% |
| 📈 SoftBank survives the Vision Fund blowup - Masa gets to swing again |
equities |
HALF |
6.14% |
0.53% |
| 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year |
macro |
WRONG |
-5.61% |
-11.22% |
| 🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-19.07% |
-49.32% |
| 📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower |
equities |
WRONG |
-17.18% |
-27.51% |
| 🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud |
tech |
HALF |
9.81% |
-0.52% |
| 🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
35.2% |
24.88% |
| 🏛️ Student-debt executive order gets struck down as unconstitutional |
politics-market |
HALF |
9.9% |
-0.42% |
| 🤖 The gut microbiome becomes a real therapeutic platform |
tech |
WRONG |
-35.11% |
-45.43% |
| 📈 The health halo on processed 'better-for-you' food is a scam |
equities |
RIGHT |
61.54% |
51.21% |
| 🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level |
tech |
RIGHT |
248.35% |
232.67% |
| 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction |
equities |
RIGHT |
78.64% |
62.74% |
| 🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-102.88% |
-118.79% |
| 📈 FedEx's warning is competitive, not macro - Amazon is eating the parcel business |
equities |
WRONG |
-59.57% |
-75.48% |
| 📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro |
equities |
WRONG |
-26.61% |
-42.51% |
| 🏛️ The IRA kills the carbon tax — carbon markets and DAC are dead ends |
politics-market |
WRONG |
1.06% |
-6.26% |
| ⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in |
energy |
WRONG |
-27.47% |
-34.79% |
| 🏛️ Medicare price negotiation compresses pharma pricing power and biotech returns |
politics-market |
HALF |
9.77% |
2.45% |
| 🏛️ Blue-state permitting has broken housing construction — building migrates to light-regulation states |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
43.01% |
35.69% |
| ⚡ Household energy resilience — every home becomes its own virtual power plant |
energy |
WRONG |
-57.09% |
-75.91% |
| 🌍 Markets are bottoming now - the Fed breaks something and the Fed put returns |
macro |
RIGHT |
18.44% |
0.0% |
| 🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline |
tech |
WRONG |
-116.59% |
-135.03% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine risk is already ring-fenced - even a nuclear incident barely moves markets |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
18.44% |
0.0% |
| 🌍 UK mortgage resets flip the UK economy upside down |
macro |
WRONG |
-21.86% |
-40.29% |
| 📈 Life sciences stays funded through the bust - own the tools companies |
equities |
WRONG |
-2.96% |
-21.4% |
| 🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead |
tech |
RIGHT |
136.37% |
116.1% |
| 🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-39.42% |
-59.68% |
| 🏛️ Federal cannabis normalization - descheduling plus banking access unlocks the legal market |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-40.0% |
-60.26% |
| 📈 Amazon pivots to cash cow - the GARP re-rating |
equities |
HALF |
21.41% |
-1.14% |
| 🏦 Levered pension unwind spills into US credit |
rates |
WRONG |
-7.8% |
-30.35% |
| 📈 This drawdown is the best vintage in a decade to build and deploy |
equities |
HALF |
16.46% |
-6.1% |
| 📈 Legacy journalism is obsolete - the opinion economy takes the audience |
equities |
WRONG |
-46.75% |
-69.3% |
| 🤖 Social network effects are not moats - the platforms fragment |
tech |
WRONG |
-137.94% |
-150.86% |
| 📈 Zero-vote dual-class governance orphans Snap - and the super-voting era ends at 4% rates |
equities |
WRONG |
-13.6% |
-26.52% |
| 🤖 A decade of zero rates under-trained a generation of operators |
tech |
WRONG |
-2.54% |
-15.46% |
| 🤖 Musk turns Twitter around fast - MAU value doubles or triples |
tech |
WRONG |
-8.9% |
-16.91% |
| 📈 Activists cannot move founder-controlled big tech above the line |
equities |
WRONG |
-218.52% |
-226.53% |
| 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power |
tech |
RIGHT |
90.66% |
74.46% |
| 🏛️ Split government ends the spending orgy and blocks the interventionist response |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-2.95% |
-19.15% |
| 📈 FTX's cap table is a who's-who of no diligence |
equities |
WRONG |
-27.1% |
-43.15% |
| 🤖 Only foundation models can disrupt search - and Google is too far ahead |
tech |
RIGHT |
41.54% |
25.5% |
| 🤖 Natural-language chat disrupts Google's search box |
tech |
WRONG |
-32.55% |
-49.25% |
| 🤖 SaaS gets replaced by MaaS — Models as a Service |
tech |
WRONG |
-51.85% |
-68.56% |
| 🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat |
tech |
RIGHT |
96.71% |
18.38% |
| 🤖 Generative AI is the next Silicon Valley bubble cycle |
tech |
RIGHT |
181.65% |
164.95% |
| 🤖 SaaS seat contraction — net revenue retention goes below 100% |
tech |
WRONG |
-94.13% |
-110.83% |
| 📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library |
equities |
HALF |
5.73% |
-20.35% |
| 📈 Base-edited T-cells cure incurable blood cancer - gene editing inflects |
equities |
WRONG |
-22.58% |
-48.66% |
| 🤖 Foundation models are a big-tech oligopoly - the substrate gets given away |
tech |
RIGHT |
63.82% |
42.39% |
| 🤖 Meta's best move is capping the metaverse bet and reallocating to AI |
tech |
RIGHT |
173.39% |
151.95% |
| 🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
116.27% |
35.16% |
| 🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
23.71% |
0.0% |
| 🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
175.13% |
151.42% |
| 🤖 AI drug discovery hasn't lifted pharma hit rates — the M&A bid is falling |
tech |
WRONG |
-11.33% |
-35.04% |
| ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge |
energy |
HALF |
37.03% |
-18.18% |
| 🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China |
commodities |
HALF |
16.41% |
-7.3% |
| 📈 COVID vaccine reckoning collapses trust in vaccination |
equities |
RIGHT |
34.04% |
12.07% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall |
politics-market |
HALF |
15.49% |
-6.48% |
| 📈 Startup mass extinction event in late 2023 and 2024 |
equities |
WRONG |
-61.7% |
-112.68% |
| 📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders |
equities |
WRONG |
-78.49% |
-129.47% |
| 🤖 Inference cost is the gate on AI search — 10x too expensive today |
tech |
RIGHT |
509.95% |
459.19% |
| 🤖 Google defends search by doubling TAC — margin traded for share |
tech |
WRONG |
-57.49% |
-80.74% |
| 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up |
politics-market |
HALF |
8.25% |
-15.0% |
| 🏛️ East Palestine forces rail safety re-regulation and operator liability |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-13.32% |
-37.83% |
| 🏛️ The AI trust-and-safety layer is the next censorship war |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-57.86% |
-82.38% |
| 📈 Zantac carcinogen cover-up becomes a pharma liability reckoning |
equities |
WRONG |
-21.6% |
-46.11% |
| 🏛️ Dominion's $1.6B defamation claim against Fox fails the actual-malice test |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-15.08% |
-43.89% |
| 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks |
equities |
WRONG |
-14.85% |
-49.54% |
| 📈 SVB collapse is an extinction-level event that freezes startup funding |
equities |
WRONG |
-11.04% |
-18.39% |
| 🏛️ Regulators backstop all uninsured deposits within days |
politics-market |
HALF |
6.73% |
0.0% |
| 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated |
crypto |
WRONG |
-249.57% |
-284.26% |
| 🏦 Fed's bank funding facility only kicks the can — massive rate cuts are the exit |
rates |
WRONG |
-9.88% |
-42.5% |
| 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis |
rates |
HALF |
9.34% |
-39.69% |
| 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-36.03% |
-69.64% |
| 🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue |
tech |
WRONG |
-10.05% |
-43.66% |
| 🤖 ChatGPT plugins make OpenAI the next great computing platform |
tech |
RIGHT |
47.13% |
17.51% |
| 📈 Code-for-hire outsourcers displace white-collar labor first |
equities |
HALF |
23.15% |
-6.47% |
| 🏛️ US capital gets walled off from Chinese AI and advanced tech |
politics-market |
HALF |
10.15% |
-18.25% |
| 🏛️ An FDA for AI — model deployment gets licensed at the compute layer |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
48.66% |
23.01% |
| 🏛️ Defamation litigation wave hits media balance sheets |
politics-market |
HALF |
5.04% |
-16.83% |
| 🤖 Starship gives Starlink a launch monopoly that squeezes legacy satcom |
tech |
WRONG |
-74.86% |
-152.36% |
| 🤖 AI collapses the cost of knowledge work to ten cents on the dollar |
tech |
RIGHT |
33.33% |
9.36% |
| 📈 Cellular meat is uneconomic this cycle - alternative protein is a value trap |
equities |
RIGHT |
52.73% |
28.76% |
| 🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge |
tech |
RIGHT |
92.32% |
64.01% |
| 📈 FTC merger-blocking chills early-stage biotech financing |
equities |
WRONG |
-6.83% |
-35.13% |
| 🏛️ PBMs, not pharma, are the real drug-price target |
politics-market |
HALF |
13.87% |
-14.44% |
| 🤖 Apple's AR headset becomes the next compute platform |
tech |
HALF |
8.97% |
-19.33% |
| 📈 Mortgage rate lock-in freezes housing turnover |
equities |
WRONG |
2.84% |
-25.46% |
| 📈 Model Y becomes the best-selling car in America |
equities |
WRONG |
-7.21% |
-35.09% |
| 🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore |
crypto |
WRONG |
-394.09% |
-419.36% |
| 📈 Star athletes take the equity off the sports owners |
equities |
WRONG |
-5.52% |
-30.79% |
| 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks |
equities |
HALF |
21.48% |
-3.36% |
| 🤖 Meta's Project 92 takes Twitter's slot by paying creators and handing back data control |
tech |
RIGHT |
79.79% |
54.95% |
| ⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain |
energy |
WRONG |
-7.5% |
-35.06% |
| 🏛️ Taiwan's US protection expires as fabs onshore — TSMC carries the risk |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-359.45% |
-435.86% |
| 📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40% |
equities |
HALF |
24.26% |
-3.3% |
| 🏛️ Affirmative-action ruling propagates into corporate DEI and ESG |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-24.08% |
-48.68% |
| 🤖 Data-infra platforms buy the AI tool chain — more M&A at premium multiples |
tech |
WRONG |
-19.33% |
-43.94% |
| 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program |
politics-market |
HALF |
9.92% |
-18.27% |
| 🏛️ Courts reverse agency overreach - the regulatory premium on tech and crypto compresses |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
107.03% |
80.64% |
| 🏛️ Structural breakup replaces merger-blocking as the big-tech remedy |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-47.73% |
-74.11% |
| 📈 Record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures drive the biggest hurricane season ever |
equities |
WRONG |
-27.69% |
-54.07% |
| 📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie |
equities |
RIGHT |
32.38% |
10.38% |
| 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market |
equities |
RIGHT |
63.74% |
41.74% |
| 🤖 In-silico materials discovery cracks cheap battery chemistry |
tech |
WRONG |
-38.67% |
-60.68% |
| 🤖 LK-99 is a diamagnet, not a room-temperature superconductor |
tech |
WRONG |
-107.76% |
-128.7% |
| 📈 Down-round IPOs wipe out the late-stage preference stack |
equities |
WRONG |
-10.34% |
-31.61% |
| 📈 The equity beta trade is done — software back at fair value, alpha only from selection |
equities |
WRONG |
-20.93% |
-42.2% |
| 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand |
macro |
HALF |
6.2% |
-15.07% |
| 🌍 Soft-landing rally underprices the lag risk |
macro |
WRONG |
-28.77% |
-57.53% |
| 📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy |
equities |
WRONG |
-23.5% |
-74.8% |
| 📈 Payment processors are middlemen with no pricing power |
equities |
WRONG |
-14.37% |
-43.14% |
| 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon |
tech |
WRONG |
-181.21% |
-210.77% |
| 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging |
equities |
WRONG |
-31.66% |
-61.21% |
| ⚡ Energy-transition capital flows under a national-security frame, not a climate frame |
energy |
WRONG |
-34.0% |
-63.55% |
| ⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship |
energy |
WRONG |
-31.47% |
-58.15% |
| 🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy |
macro |
WRONG |
-21.08% |
-47.76% |
| 📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers |
equities |
HALF |
6.16% |
-27.65% |
| 📈 Venture's alpha does not clear liquid alternatives — LP money leaves the asset class |
equities |
WRONG |
-46.38% |
-80.19% |
| 📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts |
equities |
RIGHT |
48.3% |
14.5% |
| 📈 Take-rate decay caps the GTV marketplaces — model Instacart down, not up |
equities |
WRONG |
-40.47% |
-74.27% |
| 🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced |
tech |
WRONG |
-7.26% |
-40.38% |
| 📈 The Sphere becomes a replicable immersive-venue format |
equities |
HALF |
19.58% |
-13.55% |
| 🏛️ Record border encounters force a bipartisan enforcement buildout |
politics-market |
WRONG |
3.53% |
-29.59% |
| 🏛️ Oct-7 derails Israel-Saudi normalization and reprices regional risk |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-38.3% |
-74.44% |
| 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
93.14% |
57.01% |
| 🏛️ EU's Digital Services Act becomes a binding censorship and compliance regime on the platforms |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-20.81% |
-61.49% |
| 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade |
equities |
WRONG |
-58.07% |
-98.74% |
| 📈 Uninsurable coastal property gets repriced down |
equities |
WRONG |
-69.1% |
-112.0% |
| 📈 Profitability plus buybacks is the setup for the tech turn |
equities |
RIGHT |
88.26% |
45.36% |
| 📈 Cruise's robotaxi program collapses under GM |
equities |
WRONG |
-93.4% |
-136.3% |
| 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins |
equities |
WRONG |
-128.93% |
-162.07% |
| 🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally |
macro |
RIGHT |
33.14% |
0.0% |
| 🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India |
politics-market |
HALF |
24.26% |
-8.89% |
| 🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates |
tech |
RIGHT |
44.97% |
11.11% |
| 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years |
rates |
WRONG |
1.01% |
-51.38% |
| 🏛️ Speculative-competition antitrust blocks chill tech M&A |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-75.07% |
-108.93% |
| 🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-28.78% |
-58.56% |
| 🏛️ Federal agencies run a coordinated regulatory campaign against Elon's companies |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-83.68% |
-113.46% |
| 🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation |
macro |
RIGHT |
154.25% |
127.62% |
| ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock |
energy |
WRONG |
4.06% |
-22.57% |
| 🏛️ Third-party candidates take a Perot-plus share of the 2024 vote, at Biden's expense |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
106.17% |
79.38% |
| 🪙 Solana's post-FTX recovery runs - the besties are still holding |
crypto |
RIGHT |
78.48% |
51.69% |
| 🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones |
tech |
WRONG |
-17.93% |
-41.91% |
| 📈 Disney keeps politicizing its franchises and keeps flopping |
equities |
WRONG |
-17.21% |
-41.19% |
| 📈 Boeing is rotting because a duopoly has no accountability |
equities |
HALF |
20.43% |
-5.03% |
| 📈 Regulatory certification makes sole-source aerospace suppliers pricing-power machines |
equities |
RIGHT |
33.83% |
8.38% |
| 🤖 The streaming churn war's only winners are Google and Meta |
tech |
RIGHT |
34.38% |
8.93% |
| 📈 Microplastics evidence pushes beverages out of PET |
equities |
WRONG |
-1.01% |
-26.47% |
| 📈 Ad-supported legacy media is structurally dead |
equities |
WRONG |
-239.65% |
-265.98% |
| 📈 Fintech is fin, not tech — margins and multiples reckon |
equities |
WRONG |
-36.3% |
-62.63% |
| 🏛️ Delaware voiding Elon's package chills performance comp and drives charter flight |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-115.32% |
-138.62% |
| 📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies |
equities |
WRONG |
-28.43% |
-51.74% |
| 📈 Snap's zero-vote governance and stock-comp dilution keep destroying shareholder value |
equities |
WRONG |
1.71% |
-19.69% |
| 📈 Meta's profit engine plus buybacks makes its AI option value free |
equities |
RIGHT |
53.22% |
31.82% |
| 🤖 OpenAI keeps the consumer AI lead through a developer network effect |
tech |
WRONG |
-1.84% |
-23.24% |
| 🤖 YouTube is the largest proprietary training corpus on earth - Google's insurmountable AI moat |
tech |
HALF |
24.84% |
3.44% |
| 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts |
equities |
WRONG |
-0.03% |
-21.43% |
| 📈 Trade the second-order cost of immersive tech, not Apple's revenue |
equities |
WRONG |
-4.02% |
-25.42% |
| 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost |
tech |
WRONG |
1.65% |
-21.98% |
| 📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing |
equities |
WRONG |
-24.31% |
-47.94% |
| 🏛️ Biden stays the nominee - there is no mechanism to remove him |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-42.11% |
-60.48% |
| 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem |
tech |
WRONG |
-172.91% |
-228.24% |
| 🤖 Gemini's ideological tuning breaks Google's AI product |
tech |
WRONG |
-25.25% |
-44.9% |
| 📈 Gemini blunder forces a Meta-style purge — GOOGL at 17x is the buy point |
equities |
RIGHT |
24.62% |
7.27% |
| 📈 AI agents gut the outsourced customer-support industry |
equities |
RIGHT |
36.99% |
19.64% |
| 🏛️ OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion becomes a tax and litigation overhang |
politics-market |
WRONG |
2.44% |
-11.55% |
| 📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left |
equities |
WRONG |
-40.69% |
-54.68% |
| 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
24.0% |
10.01% |
| 🪙 Spot ETF approvals extend past Bitcoin to Ethereum |
crypto |
WRONG |
-43.44% |
-57.43% |
| 🏛️ Patriot Act 2.0 - the foreign-adversary app law becomes a divestiture weapon against domestic platforms |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-4.02% |
-15.48% |
| 🏛️ Florida's cultivated-meat ban spreads to other ranching states before federal preemption undoes it |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
91.06% |
58.36% |
| 🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
45.18% |
35.6% |
| 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle |
tech |
WRONG |
-5.47% |
-15.05% |
| 📈 Gene-edited pig organs unlock an effectively infinite organ supply |
equities |
RIGHT |
31.56% |
21.98% |
| 📈 Trump Media's meme premium unwinds once the float opens up |
equities |
RIGHT |
59.25% |
51.48% |
| 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting |
equities |
RIGHT |
115.97% |
108.2% |
| 📈 Google's rumoured HubSpot bid doesn't get done |
equities |
RIGHT |
25.15% |
26.45% |
| 📈 Shrinking global equity float lifts prices regardless of fundamentals |
equities |
HALF |
5.85% |
0.0% |
| 🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
82.54% |
76.69% |
| 🏛️ Section 174 R&D amortization crushes small R&D-heavy companies |
politics-market |
WRONG |
2.34% |
-5.32% |
| 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet |
equities |
WRONG |
-17.38% |
-25.04% |
| 📈 Tesla's 40% drawdown is mispriced against an on-plan Master Plan |
equities |
RIGHT |
69.32% |
59.6% |
| ⚡ 100 million homes become mini-utilities and strand incumbent utility debt |
energy |
WRONG |
-26.35% |
-36.07% |
| 🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-1.49% |
-11.21% |
| 🤖 AI-designed open-source gene editors break the CRISPR patent toll |
tech |
WRONG |
-9.46% |
-21.72% |
| 🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces |
tech |
WRONG |
-59.8% |
-69.54% |
| 🤖 AlphaFold 3 turns drug discovery into software — Google/Isomorphic captures it |
tech |
WRONG |
-8.99% |
-18.73% |
| 🛢️ Boosted breeding delivers a step-change in crop yield |
commodities |
WRONG |
-21.15% |
-34.81% |
| 🌍 Milei's fiscal austerity makes Argentina the reform trade |
macro |
RIGHT |
47.22% |
33.57% |
| 🤖 Nvidia forward-integrates into cloud and attacks the hyperscalers |
tech |
RIGHT |
23.35% |
12.58% |
| 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework |
politics-market |
HALF |
9.16% |
-4.02% |
| 📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index |
equities |
HALF |
13.86% |
0.67% |
| 📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly |
equities |
WRONG |
-47.65% |
-61.27% |
| 📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses |
equities |
WRONG |
-20.55% |
-35.09% |
| 🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer |
tech |
HALF |
38.2% |
-1.79% |
| 🤖 Enterprises tune and self-host open-source models instead of paying for proprietary APIs |
tech |
HALF |
13.11% |
-26.87% |
| 🌍 A second-term tariff-plus-tax-cut policy mix stokes stagflation |
macro |
WRONG |
-10.35% |
-20.7% |
| ⚡ AI datacenter demand needs double-to-triple current US electricity generation |
energy |
RIGHT |
19.27% |
8.92% |
| 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax |
politics-market |
HALF |
5.85% |
-4.5% |
| 🏛️ Microsoft's bundle playbook gets an antitrust remedy |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-9.42% |
-23.58% |
| 🏛️ Harris is the only feasible replacement if Biden leaves the ticket |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
43.44% |
39.81% |
| 🏛️ Immunity plus Fisher rulings collapse the January 6 prosecution |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-35.04% |
-49.19% |
| 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
42.13% |
27.98% |
| 🏛️ Socialist policy turn across the industrialized democracies |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-12.82% |
-25.57% |
| 🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth |
tech |
RIGHT |
56.07% |
40.33% |
| 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-4.67% |
-20.41% |
| 📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise |
equities |
WRONG |
-82.67% |
-101.14% |
| 📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve |
equities |
HALF |
16.24% |
-2.24% |
| 📈 Fox's neocon drift misaligns it with its own audience — bad for the business |
equities |
WRONG |
-52.81% |
-71.29% |
| 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment |
equities |
RIGHT |
484.25% |
465.78% |
| 📈 You cannot build durable public equity value on a bet-making business |
equities |
WRONG |
-30.75% |
-48.87% |
| 🌍 BOJ is trapped — Japan can never raise rates and the yen keeps depreciating |
macro |
WRONG |
1.13% |
-19.91% |
| 📈 Hidden hedge-fund leverage forces another wave of equity selling |
equities |
WRONG |
-12.58% |
-25.15% |
| 📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts |
equities |
RIGHT |
21.04% |
0.0% |
| 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power |
equities |
WRONG |
-23.12% |
-44.16% |
| 🏛️ Google's search-monopoly remedy is a broad consent decree, not a breakup |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-23.66% |
-44.7% |
| 🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
21.75% |
9.17% |
| 🏛️ A Google breakup unlocks value - sum of the parts beats the whole |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
25.73% |
8.2% |
| 📈 Starbucks is a sugar company - GLP-1s and sugar awareness are the real problem |
equities |
WRONG |
2.0% |
-15.52% |
| 🏛️ Harris's federal food price-gouging ban is a discredited price control |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-33.7% |
-51.22% |
| 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
21.86% |
15.86% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-46.1% |
-70.44% |
| 🤖 Apple launches its own search engine and goes head-to-head with Google |
tech |
WRONG |
-25.73% |
-43.25% |
| 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority |
equities |
WRONG |
-1.27% |
-18.79% |
| 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data |
macro |
WRONG |
-16.23% |
-32.45% |
| 🤖 Demand mix shifts to inference and Nvidia has to choose margin or share |
tech |
WRONG |
-82.55% |
-122.27% |
| 🏛️ RFK's MAHA agenda puts a policy overhang on processed food and soda |
politics-market |
WRONG |
2.02% |
-13.84% |
| 📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical |
equities |
WRONG |
-8.34% |
-29.61% |
| 🤖 A CUDA transpiler breaks Nvidia's software lock-in |
tech |
WRONG |
-62.47% |
-83.75% |
| 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract |
macro |
WRONG |
-18.22% |
-36.43% |
| 🤖 Next year's foundation model commoditizes this year's AI app-layer startups |
tech |
HALF |
19.88% |
1.67% |
| 📈 Rate cuts plus the AI wave start a new venture cycle - a golden era, not a bubble |
equities |
RIGHT |
24.76% |
6.54% |
| 📈 Blue-collar trades boom and a rising premium on human service |
equities |
RIGHT |
36.8% |
19.59% |
| 📈 Agents replace the entry-level analyst — static team size at scale |
equities |
RIGHT |
47.15% |
29.94% |
| 📈 PBM margin model breaks on drug-price transparency |
equities |
WRONG |
-28.8% |
-48.09% |
| 📈 Pro sports franchise valuations have not peaked |
equities |
HALF |
8.09% |
-11.19% |
| 📈 Venture has to shrink to clear public-market alpha - fund sizes and GP count come down |
equities |
WRONG |
-3.2% |
-17.24% |
| ⚡ US SMR buildout stalls on NIMBY and unproven technology |
energy |
WRONG |
-143.0% |
-158.03% |
| 📈 Uber-Expedia super-app cross-sell doesn't pencil |
equities |
WRONG |
-35.41% |
-50.45% |
| 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable |
tech |
RIGHT |
29.21% |
10.82% |
| 📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech |
equities |
HALF |
8.88% |
-6.76% |
| 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around |
equities |
HALF |
12.58% |
-3.05% |
| 📈 Fat-cell epigenetic memory makes obesity therapy chronic |
equities |
RIGHT |
41.4% |
29.77% |
| 📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale |
equities |
RIGHT |
51.01% |
36.23% |
| 🤖 Pre-training scaling laws still hold — Colossus and Grok 3 are the proof |
tech |
RIGHT |
31.45% |
16.67% |
| 🏛️ US compute export controls keep China off the AI frontier from 2025 |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
31.45% |
16.67% |
| 🏛️ Atkins SEC loosens accredited-investor gating and retail money reaches private markets |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-15.38% |
-30.15% |
| 📈 The exit drought is a valuation overhang, not antitrust or markets |
equities |
WRONG |
-54.76% |
-68.97% |
| 🛢️ Targeted tariffs act as a reverse subsidy that makes US critical-minerals supply chains investable |
commodities |
RIGHT |
192.51% |
178.31% |
| 🪙 Stablecoins become the standard US payment rail and crush the card take rate |
crypto |
WRONG |
-12.05% |
-28.53% |
| 📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer |
equities |
WRONG |
-11.33% |
-32.12% |
| 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment |
equities |
HALF |
7.69% |
-13.09% |
| 🏛️ Arctic shipping-lane control is the real Greenland play |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
60.44% |
39.66% |
| 📈 AI eats middle management before the entry level |
equities |
HALF |
18.9% |
2.86% |
| 📈 Higher education's value unwinds, starting with the MBA |
equities |
WRONG |
-4.15% |
-20.19% |
| 🏛️ Wildfire value-at-risk pushes fire-hardened building code national |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-31.68% |
-47.72% |
| 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment |
tech |
WRONG |
-13.06% |
-29.41% |
| 🤖 DeepSeek proves frontier-model costs are collapsing |
tech |
WRONG |
-58.52% |
-74.86% |
| 🏛️ Washington starts taking equity and royalties in exchange for permits and grants |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
122.13% |
105.79% |
| 🤖 DeepSeek R1 was distilled from OpenAI, not a clean $6M cost breakthrough |
tech |
RIGHT |
59.23% |
42.9% |
| 📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords |
equities |
WRONG |
-13.0% |
-29.33% |
| 🏛️ Carried interest loophole gets closed in the Trump tax bill |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
21.48% |
5.17% |
| 📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class |
equities |
RIGHT |
21.38% |
5.07% |
| 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down |
politics-market |
HALF |
11.69% |
-1.11% |
| 🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments |
commodities |
WRONG |
-55.57% |
-68.37% |
| 🪙 Memecoins are negative-sum rug-pull machines |
crypto |
RIGHT |
58.85% |
42.58% |
| 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status |
macro |
WRONG |
-3.66% |
-19.93% |
| 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt |
macro |
WRONG |
1.52% |
-19.83% |
| ⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons |
energy |
RIGHT |
63.69% |
42.33% |
| 🏛️ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken out of conservatorship |
politics-market |
WRONG |
4.81% |
-13.34% |
| 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation |
rates |
HALF |
9.99% |
-4.28% |
| 📈 Nvidia's receivables build is the Blackwell transition, not vendor financing |
equities |
RIGHT |
54.6% |
39.95% |
| 🌍 Red Sea reopening contains the freight-driven inflation impulse |
macro |
WRONG |
-93.78% |
-108.43% |
| 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-5.16% |
-36.68% |
| 📈 Newsmax's post-IPO meme premium reverts |
equities |
RIGHT |
87.95% |
56.43% |
| 🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium |
macro |
WRONG |
-3.38% |
-32.09% |
| 🏛️ Nvidia's Asia revenue is diverted China demand |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-108.16% |
-147.94% |
| 🏛️ Federal research funding retreats from universities |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-25.29% |
-65.07% |
| 🤖 Forced KYC on cloud compute buyers dents hyperscaler revenue |
tech |
WRONG |
-62.17% |
-85.83% |
| 📈 Trans-Pacific container volume collapse seizes up the physical logistics economy |
equities |
WRONG |
-55.29% |
-83.9% |
| 🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-41.2% |
-69.81% |
| 📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade |
equities |
WRONG |
-10.87% |
-39.48% |
| 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices |
rates |
WRONG |
-1.64% |
-27.32% |
| 🏛️ Gulf capital realigns to a US bloc, displacing China's Belt and Road |
politics-market |
RIGHT |
66.24% |
40.56% |
| 🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-40.24% |
-65.92% |
| 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies |
rates |
WRONG |
2.47% |
-12.38% |
| 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital |
macro |
RIGHT |
14.85% |
0.0% |
| ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda |
energy |
RIGHT |
56.36% |
30.69% |
| 📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers |
equities |
WRONG |
-19.12% |
-44.93% |
| 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle |
equities |
WRONG |
-48.48% |
-74.29% |
| 🤖 Consumption-based software pricing destroys the business — Snowflake is the case study |
tech |
WRONG |
-8.69% |
-34.5% |
| 📈 Generative video (Veo 3) collapses Hollywood inside a year |
equities |
WRONG |
-145.32% |
-171.12% |
| 📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash |
equities |
HALF |
12.19% |
-7.11% |
| 🏛️ State AI-regulation patchwork advantages incumbents over startups |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-20.92% |
-42.24% |
| ⚡ The US power bottleneck is turbines, transmission and storage, not generation |
energy |
RIGHT |
110.48% |
89.15% |
| 📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does |
equities |
RIGHT |
41.71% |
20.38% |
| 🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps |
tech |
HALF |
21.33% |
-1.07% |
| 🏛️ CLARITY Act market-structure bill clears the Senate and is signed by October |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-18.76% |
-24.72% |
| 🤖 Apple licenses an outside frontier model (Gavin's pick: xAI/Grok) rather than building or bolting one on |
tech |
RIGHT |
57.69% |
38.17% |
| 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher |
politics-market |
WRONG |
-22.94% |
-45.89% |
| 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold |
crypto |
RIGHT |
55.04% |
41.86% |
| 📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset |
equities |
RIGHT |
32.68% |
16.58% |
| 📈 Gaming is AI's biggest entertainment winner |
equities |
WRONG |
-18.43% |
-34.68% |
| 📈 Private equity model is broken |
equities |
RIGHT |
30.97% |
14.72% |
| 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable |
macro |
WRONG |
-31.84% |
-54.24% |
| 📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization |
equities |
WRONG |
0.49% |
-20.02% |
| ⚡ Nuclear is the fastest path to carbon neutral — uranium is being cornered |
energy |
HALF |
-2.44% |
8.22% |
| 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them |
equities |
WRONG |
-36.99% |
-58.27% |
| 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast |
equities |
RIGHT |
36.64% |
23.21% |
| 📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions |
equities |
HALF |
8.02% |
-17.44% |
| 🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline |
tech |
RIGHT |
64.66% |
23.42% |
| 🤖 OpenAI is 2023's biggest winner — Microsoft deal inevitable |
tech |
RIGHT |
64.95% |
42.54% |
| 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 |
rates |
WRONG |
-4.64% |
-15.41% |
| 📈 Opaque payment fee pools get competed to zero |
equities |
WRONG |
-8.75% |
-22.52% |
| 📈 Pediatric ADHD/antidepressant over-prescription becomes an opioid-style reckoning |
equities |
WRONG |
-2.78% |
-12.95% |
Chamath
Jason
Sacks
Friedberg
Brad Gerstner
Gavin Baker