+0.0
net board stance
what this means
86.0
-2.0% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / +3% / +49%
1m / 3m / 12m
+132%
vs SPY since 2023-10-27
88%
of 52w range · -4.6% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -94
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on GM
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.0, average α -94.0. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -28.4% | -51.7 | 2025-02-02 |
| 📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +6.2% | -27.6 | 2024-09-22 |
| ⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -7.5% | -35.1 | 2024-06-24 |
| 📈 Cruise's robotaxi program collapses under GM | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -93.4% | -136.3 | 2024-10-27 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding GM, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
The way executive comp typically works at the board level at public companies is you hire these comp consultants and the comp consultants come in and they use comparables, which basically means let's do what everyone else does.
Sundar being a hired gun, not having founder authority to your point, Friedberg
it's a really important sign that founder led companies with these voting rights, you know, have the ability to make these sorts of hard decisions that it might be very difficult for a management by committee group to make.
I bet you if she got paid $1 in her health care and she had to get to $80 a share, I bet you that would be an $80 stock price.
Then you got crony capitalism. You got these companies that have been around for a hundred years. The value was created by people long dead. ... they pay themselves as much comp as they can possibly justify. Whether or not they create any value for the shareholder. That's what we saw at GM.
So right now what we are doing is we are not motivating CEOs to run great companies. We're motivating CEOs to understand financial arbitrage. The result will be crappier companies that diminish American exceptionalism. That is the only outcome.
I didn't think cruise was sophisticated enough, or really GM, who's their backer, was sophisticated enough technologically to get this right. And I still maintain that
They work, I looked it up, 58 to 64 hours a week, factory workers. The US factory workers want to work 32 hours a week. ... I mean, they're just going to move these factories to Mexico or
the auto companies are facing what you'd expect to be reduced demand because no one can afford a car payment at these higher interest rates, the unions are going on strike demanding
I think that the labor deal is an existential risk to the unionized auto industry in America. ... If the deal as announced happens and you sensitize Stellantis, GM and Ford's P&L to these new terms ... it's going to be very difficult for the established auto industry to survive
This specific thing is more because of the bureaucracy of the government not allowing these credits to basically work across all different kinds of cars.
I mean, the administration just gave all these subsidies and credits to big companies like Ford and GE to make EVs, but no one wants those cars.
Jobs, energy independence and less dependency on autocratic nations.
So Elon was basically a fluke. I mean, you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happened to be working on this EV problem, and he got that loan. If you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio, it all looks like Solyndra. So the question is, like, what is this portfolio going to look like? Is there really going to be another Elon in there? Because if not, there's going to be a lot of Solyndras.
Listen, while generally against industrial policy, I come down on Chamath's side. I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence. It's not going to happen just according to the invisible hand of the market.
It's us using our balance sheet to make sure that we get to energy independence. So this is actually a perfect role for government. It's shaping incentives so that capitalism can do its job. What this does for Ford is Ford has a partnership with SK. And so SK has a lot of capability in Korea, but they can bring that know-how now domestically onshore to the United States. You'll be hiring thousands of people, you'll be building battery factories. Ford needs batteries. Their forecast is they'll be selling two and a half million electric vehicles by 2026, 2027 So whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do.