🏛️ US capital gets walled off from Chinese AI and advanced tech
CFIUS-style screening gets extended in the outbound direction: American LPs and VCs are barred from funding Chinese AI and other frontier technologies, on the argument that the US should not have its fingerprints on adversary capability. Chamath calls for it outright, Sacks already applies a private version of the rule (never take money from a country Washington calls an adversary), Friedberg dissents on interdependency. The read-through is a widening political-risk discount on Chinese tech as its access to US capital closes.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 58.8 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT KWEB
expression · bearish politics-market
PARTIAL
outcome · R +10.2% · α -18.2%
2024-04-07
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-04-07 → 2024-04-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT KWEB (primary play). KWEB fell 10.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +10.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +28.4%
→ α = +10.2 − (+28.4) = -18.2%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +38.5% — did KWEB move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Brad Gerstner, Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-04-07)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | KWEB | etf | PRIMARY | Chinese internet/AI complex is the direct loser as US capital access closes |
| ▼ SHORT | BABA | stock | adjacent | Friedberg's own named example of state action wiping out shareholders in Chinese tech |
| ▼ SHORT | FXI | etf | adjacent | broad China large-cap carries the same escalating investment-restriction discount |
Mention log
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E123 (2023-04-07) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:07:29
OPPOSE
“So, you know, to Sacks's point, I'm not sure you can really say China is a true and complete adversary in the sense that we're on opposite sides. There's obviously deep interdependencies. So, you know, it's hard to kind of say I draw the line at this kind of technology investing there, but I benefit from their technology investing that's going on there in other ways with some of my other businesses, right?”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E132 (2023-06-10) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 38:07
SUPPORT
“I think that it should be possible to do business with China without it being seen as either unpatriotic or immoral. However, there are strategic technologies that are just going to be, I think, it's too hard and too risky to be supporting China.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
politics-market w=0.86 · n=7
· E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 43:56
OPPOSE
“Just real quickly, I would say there's a real appetite in the business community to be engaged. This idea that we're going to decouple the world and never have to deal with these folks is just a farce. ByteDance bought a billion dollars worth of NVIDIA chips announced this week.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -48.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E123 2023-04-07 | init | +42.9 | 42.9 | E123 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.02] |
| E123 2023-04-07 | reinforce | +12.4 | 55.3 | E123 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E123 2023-04-07 | oppose | -10.1 | 45.2 | E123 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.7 | 41.7 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | reinforce | +17.8 | 51.8 | E132 Jason support x3 (new voice) |
| E132 2023-06-10 | reinforce | +7.0 | 58.8 | E132 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -2.4 | 56.4 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | oppose | -10.3 | 46.2 | E134 Brad Gerstner opposes x2 [w=0.86] |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -1.8 | 44.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -1.8 | 42.5 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -1.7 | 40.8 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.6 | 39.2 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 20.4 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E173 silent |