+9.7
net board stance
what this means
158.93
-1.4% · close 2026-09-08
+6% / +13% / -7%
1m / 3m / 12m
-28%
vs SPY since 2025-01-31
71%
of 52w range · -8.6% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization | ▲ LONG | primary | 9.7 | +9.7 | — | 30d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on ICE
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -47.6% | -61.3 | 2025-06-07 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ICE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization
E248 · 2025-10-24
▶ 23:52
Polymarket actually has the news before the news does... when people have incentives, that market will find the truth... The polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market... everyone will get a more fair price.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization
E248 · 2025-10-24
▶ 24:12
Somebody needs to build the app that makes all of these things fungible. ... you'll want to have a large pool of capital that you can trade across anything. So I can go long NVIDIA, but I can also go short the NICS, and then I can own some Bitcoin all in the same trade.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization
E246 · 2025-10-10
▶ 1:21:43
everything is becoming a market. And you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets, you'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this way, ... I think that that is a huge deal,
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly
E182 · 2024-06-07
▶ 1:01:02
it showed the cost of going public on Nasdaq, Amex and the New York Stock Exchange was about $7.4 million. Cost of going public through an over-the-counter bulletin board listing service was about $2 million.
Chamath
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly
E182 · 2024-06-07
▶ 59:58
I think if you have a third player, there's a chance that more competition will create more rational behavior, which will flow into the companies themselves. So I'm a huge fan of this.