🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-07-11 → 2026-07-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT BKNG (primary play). BKNG fell 21.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +21.3% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4% → α = +21.3 − (+22.4) = -1.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +43.7% — did BKNG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   ▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   · MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Travis Kalanick | proxy-sensitive: ABNB→MISS (-9.8%); EXPE→MISS (-48.6%)

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason w=1.05

1 scoring event · 18% of moves

+12.6 → net +12.6

Chamath w=0.90

1 scoring event · 14% of moves

+9.9 → net +9.9

⏳ decay drained -58.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one