🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-07-11 → 2026-07-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT BKNG (primary play). BKNG fell 21.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +21.3% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4% → vs SPY = +21.3 − (+22.4) = -1.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +43.7% — did BKNG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   ▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Travis Kalanick | proxy-sensitive: ABNB→MISS (-9.8%); EXPE→MISS (-48.6%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 45%

1 scoring event · 64% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Jason 53%

1 scoring event · 20% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

Travis Kalanick 67% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 16% of moves

+10.1 → net +10.1

⏳ decay drained -54.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one