+0.0
net board stance
what this means
79.45
-3.4% · close 2026-09-08
-13% / -3% / -36%
1m / 3m / 12m
-48%
vs SPY since 2022-01-29
9%
of 52w range · -42.5% off high
—
hit rate as primary
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Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
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PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
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Track record on PDD
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| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +58.4% | +64.3 | 2022-05-22 |
| 🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -41.2% | -69.8 | 2026-05-02 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding PDD, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And at the core of it was a feeling by them that Amazon had abandoned them as American purveyors and sellers of goods. And that Amazon on the margins had a tendency to help competitors from abroad come, stand themselves up and compete and essentially cannibalize on price and margin.
RY
Ryan Petersen
support ×2
▼ on
🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace
E226 · 2025-05-02
▶ 55:26
And those feedback loops are there. I mean, the Trump administration is going to act on this, and there's an act that's coming out of Congress as well to shut down the foreign import of records. So those feedback loops are there in ways that I don't know if they were there in the past.
The CCP really seems to be increasing its control and putting these people under its thumb. And there are a bunch of tech companies there like Alibaba, DD, Tencent, Baidu, jd.com. They've all been targeted for fines and tighter controls. And China's pretty much shut down the foreign IPO market for their tech companies.
they're bringing these entrepreneurs, these moguls, their oligarchs under their thumb, under the thumb of the CCP. ... And Xi Jinping, they're consolidating control and power and money. And it's also about the data.
China is basically becoming a completely vertically integrated government where the public and private sector has no real clear delineation ... China is systematically decomposing and basically destabilizing all the China Internet companies. They're going to control and inbound all of the critical resources.
you can overplay a hand and by squeezing people too tightly, you can't play video games, you can't run your own companies, you're going to get replaced, you can't practice your own religion, you can't say what you want, be a journalist. ... So you could see this, actually, I think, you know, maybe it's a small chance, 5% or 10%, you know, creating a lot of social unrest.
I'll be a dissenting voice here. This is like if we had given Tipper Gore dictatorial powers. I mean, this is insane. They're going to determine how many hours a kid can play video games. I mean, look, I get the potential benefit, but this is incredibly intrusive into the lives of citizens. ... And how many other insane policies will they foist on people with this mentality of you don't get to live your life individually?
But again, it's another, in my opinion, it's another tool that China will use to outcompete this century.
This is the only thing I've ever said that would make me want to move to China. This one rule is the most incredible thing I've ever heard, and they're so smart. By the way, what's so beautiful is they send Fentanyl and TikTok to us so that we get addicted to that shit. And they're like, no, you guys are going to learn STEM so that you can take over the world. It's beautiful. It's brilliant.
They suspended disbelief because they were greedy. ... This is a way for them to say, positive energy means don't criticize Xi Jinping or the CCP or bring up topics that are in the no-fly zone like the Uyghurs.
Now, how do you actively spread positive energy? I mean, as a business person under that regulation, what does that even mean? ... Yeah, they're bringing it all under their control. That's what it's about.
Capital markets in China, I think now, are the most volatile they've ever been. Essentially, the People's Republic of China, the government, the CCP, chooses how and who will make money. ... So you could eviscerate $2 trillion of market cap tomorrow if they decide, you know what, that VIE for Alibaba ... they're starting to now introduce legislation as a prelude, in my opinion, to canceling some of these VIEs in the most important area that we care about, which is tech. ... So you put these two things together, it is a moment in China tech. It's a takeover.
But there's no more game in terms of building companies and investing in China. How is the West ever going to trust? How is Goldman Sachs or Sequoia, you know, launching a venture firm there or retail investors or hedge fund investors? How are they ever going to want to participate in that market? ... And I just don't see anybody wanting to invest there anymore.
And I think the last thing that's going on here that's different is you saw China put the kibosh on. There are 34 IPOs of major Chinese tech companies that were scheduled to IPO in US markets, and they have sort of shut that pipeline down. ... I would come out in the middle and say they've just attached a discount rate that now every investor has to consider political risk when they invest in China, because the future is very uncertain.
if I was a betting man, which I am general, but I'm not in China, because just don't understand the market, it's super, great casino, it's a stupid place to bet. ... I think that what we're starting what we're starting to see is the beginning of nationalizations.
But look, but they deserve that level of scrutiny because the amount of power they have. But yeah, we don't put them in jail or house arrest or drive them out of their companies. ... And that is a big advantage for the US economy.
They're going for the jugular. ... I guess maybe the speculative part in me would say they're showing them who's really in charge of these companies.