LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

stock all instruments
+29.0
net board stance what this means
1126.92
-2.0% · close 2026-09-08
-5% / -1% / +54%
1m / 3m / 12m
+20%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
73%
of 52w range · -12.0% off high
2/3
hit rate as primary · α -21

Where we stand — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path ▲ LONG primary 29.0 +29.0 417d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87 equities
6 ideas (1 live) · last heard E271
+8
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E150
+5
pushes up
AN
Antonio Gracias guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E214
-1
pushes down
RO
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E194
-2
pushes down
BE
Ben Shapiro w=0.50 politics-market guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E228
-2
pushes down
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
5 ideas (1 live) · last heard E271
-5
pushes down

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2027-11-01 417d 📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path 29

Track record on LLY

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.67, average α -21.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +63.7% +41.7 2024-07-27
📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade ▼ SHORT primary MISS -58.1% -98.7 2024-10-20
🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -40.2% -65.9 2026-05-17
📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -23.3% -36.0 2023-07-29
📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class ▲ LONG primary HIT +21.4% +5.1 2026-02-07
📈 Fat-cell epigenetic memory makes obesity therapy chronic ▲ LONG primary HIT +41.4% +29.8 2025-11-23

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding LLY, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path E271 · 2026-05-01 ▶ 1:02:13
it just looks like a wonder drug. I can't wait. ... It just feels like we're about to have an absolute avalanche of peptides to choose from.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path E271 · 2026-05-01 ▶ 1:03:46
for 50 bucks. But if you want to upgrade, get the Retatrutide, that's the high premium product. And that's where they're going to start to make all this money. That'll be the Mercedes to the Honda.
BE Ben Shapiro support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 1:30:48
So if you are talking about just artificially lowering prices by basically clocking Pharma, the reality is if you want to kill R&D, this is a great way to kill R&D.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 1:28:43
You'll make 10 million bucks, which is not enough to fight this R&D battle. So if you then further affect the profitability scale of pharma, the impact is probably that we push R&D to different places.
AN Antonio Gracias oppose ×1 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:28:05
how much do you think really long term when the long term studies are out is going to be that it was the drug or just that being obese is very bad for you?
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:25:59
So this goes to the point, if you guys remember the interview I did a couple months ago with the CEO of Eli Lilly, that they have all these clinical trials going on right now for different indications for the GLP-1 receptor agonists, that they're seeing that there's health benefits beyond just the weight loss in reducing things like kidney disease, obviously liver problems, mental problems and so on.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Fat-cell epigenetic memory makes obesity therapy chronic E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 1:04:43
Well, the problem, what we do see in all those results that when you go off of the GLP-1 agonist drugs, you gain the weight back very quickly.
RO Robert F. Kennedy Jr. support ×2 ▼ on 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade E194 · 2024-08-30 ▶ 1:48:32
But that company's entire value is based upon the projections of what is going to sell in the United States. And that company is pouring tens of millions of dollars into lobbying to pass this bill that will make Medicare pay for it for every American who is obese.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 49:02
they are looking at reimbursing things like Wigovia and Ozempic and whatnot. ... you put a large swath of the American population on those drugs, the reimbursement value of those drugs versus the cost of actually the chronic care management would save you many hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E159 · 2023-12-29 ▶ 47:13
I think these semi-glutide GLP1s are here to stay. They're transformational on society.
Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:16:38
I cycled off of it two or three times and had very minor weight gain back, three, four, or five pounds, but I deliberately changed my relationship with food, portion size, and I work out now ... I think it's an amazing wonder drug.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:14:11
we're basically creating a new multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical drug system that people are going to have to stay on in order to stay healthy.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:17:19
for many people from a health perspective, I think that it could be a really great solution. I think that these triple agonists that are coming out are going to be probably even more effective than these double agonists that we have right now.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:20:18
I mean, remember, over 40% of Americans are clinically obese. It's sorry, almost 60% now. It's an extraordinary health epidemic in the United States. And if this drug can have this sort of an effect, it can reduce costs across the health care system.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:19:56
But if you're making a trade, that seems like a hard trade to make. And just to give even some more color to it, Novo Nordisk announced that it was halting its ozempic kidney disease trial early because it was so conclusive.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade E150 · 2023-10-20 ▶ 1:17:51
From an economic market perspective, I think that these things are priced to perfection. It's kind of like NVIDIA ... It's a tough point in the cycle to be a buyer, I think, as an economic actor.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E139 · 2023-07-27 ▶ 16:10
I think Ozempic and Wagovi are incredible tools. And Manjaro.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market E139 · 2023-07-27 ▶ 20:35
These drugs seem to be very effective. There's some data now that shows, as soon as you stop taking it, the average person on it gains the weight right back.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts E89 · 2022-07-29 ▶ 1:07:52
No, what I'm saying is the NIH budget per year for Alzheimer's and dementia is 1.9 billion. Half of it, if you look at the tags, if you just search the tags, half the money has gone into Alzheimer's disease, amyloid beta.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts E89 · 2022-07-29 ▶ 1:08:55
And now the drug is in the market. Biogen gets approval and people start taking it. And we're seeing the data. It doesn't work. And no one wants to use it. So the market has collapsed and you kind of go back to the origin.