🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E91 (2022-08-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 59:34 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“They are basically going to send Trump to the big house or the White House. I mean, because now the Republicans have rallied around Trump, I think he's going to be very, very hard to beat as the nominee in 2024, unless the FBI comes up with ironclad evidence to show that he did something significantly wrong.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E123 (2023-04-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 6:10 SUPPORT

“But in rallying around him to defend him, you see that Trump's poll ratings among Republicans in the primary are going through the roof, distances are going down. And so what Ann Coulter fears is that this is all an elaborate ruse to make Trump the nominee because Biden would much rather face a reelection against Trump than against a young, youthful, vigorous governor like a DeSantis.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E125 (2023-04-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:28:34 REVERSAL

“But I think this new poll that you just mentioned is really interesting because it shows that that sugar high of Trump's poll ratings was a temporary bounce and it's coming down somewhat.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E125 (2023-04-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:45 OPPOSE

“I think Nikki Haley is going to win the Republican nomination.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E128 (2023-05-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 54:17 SUPPORT

“I'm sure that Trump and his campaign were delighted with what happened last night because I do think it makes him more likely to be the nominee.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E128 (2023-05-12) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:10 SUPPORT

“I think that I'm more surprised by the fact that the big Republican mega donors have taken a big step back away from DeSantis.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E128 (2023-05-12) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 59:30 SUPPORT

“And I think that Trump is going to be pretty appealing as the anti-Biden candidate.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E131 (2023-06-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 5:29 SUPPORT

“It'd be a high-class problem to have if it ended up being a DeSantis-Kennedy race instead of a Biden-Trump repeat.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E132 (2023-06-10) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:07:11 SUPPORT

“So right now, the Biden people, the Trump people and the media all want Trump over DeSantis.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E140 (2023-08-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:06 SUPPORT

“And part of the reason why I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash in the GOP where people basically think that he's being unfairly prosecuted and persecuted.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E142 (2023-08-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:19:20 SUPPORT

“what Democrats are doing with this partisan lawfare is that they are polarizing the outcomes. They're either going to send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House. That's what I said back in August last year when they rated Mar-a-Lago.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E142 (2023-08-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:12:40 OPPOSE · horizon 12mo

“I believe that you're gonna see Chris Christie and Vivek surge... It's gonna be a three-horse race with DeSantis. And I think Trump's gonna be out of the race in the next six to 12 months. That's just my prediction.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:36:48 OPPOSE

“I like to buy these deep out of the money options... I think that Vivek has a really good chance of winning this Republican nomination.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E143 (2023-08-25) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:36:48 OPPOSE

“Okay, so we take Trump off. If Trump doesn't run, which that's my personal belief”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:32:40 SUPPORT

“I think that what happens in practice is that the factions are trying to feed each other and that one faction is going to win. And I think it's probably going to be the MAGA faction.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E143 (2023-08-25) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:34:00 SUPPORT

“I don't know why he would. If he's up 50, 60, 70% of the polls. I mean, it would just be such a Trump move to just not show up to any of these debates and just get elected.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E144 (2023-09-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:39 SUPPORT

“The Trump people are actually promoting it because they want Trump to be up against a bunch. They want it to be up against a field, not against one.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E144 (2023-09-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 18:47 SUPPORT

“three people at 10 to 15% is better than one at 30 I think that's probably correct”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E149 (2023-10-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:04:20 SUPPORT

“By the way, at this rate, the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally, he's going to waltz into the White House. He's going to spend all of his time in the next year in the courthouses, battling all of these lawsuits, the lawfare against him. He's not going to be able to campaign, and it won't even matter because people are going to be so done with this.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E149 (2023-10-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:41 SUPPORT

“I think that when Trump was elected, I was told that it was the end of the world. And that's what I thought. And I'd already underwritten him as an F, okay? And then four years into the presidency, he was probably like a C. In my mind. And then as I get a little bit of distance away, I realized, no, hold on a second. This guy was like a BB+, like he was pretty good.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E149 (2023-10-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:41 OPPOSE

“And nobody wants him as president again. So I think that's... Everybody wants new choices.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:32:43 SUPPORT

“now I think that they've basically made his winning the Republican nomination a foregone conclusion and he is the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency after this.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:40:30 SUPPORT

“I said, I think it was like last year, that all of this lawfare, all these tactics, its shenanigans that the Democrats were trying, it's either gonna put Trump in the big house or the White House. And I think he said it for the White House on this basis right now.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 4:35 SUPPORT

“I think that the documents case galvanized his leadership in the Republican nomination... I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination and, barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case.”