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Last mention E221 · silent for 74 episodes.
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| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | RIGHT | +32.4% | +10.4 | 2024-07-27 |
| 📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HALF | +8.0% | -17.4 | 2025-01-19 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding PARA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And it just further erodes what's happening. I think if once Bobby puts a nail on the coffin of pharma ads on TV.
And if they lose all that advertising from Pharma, which I think in some of these networks is a third or a half, and that's all networks, that's from Fox to CNN and MSNBC, everybody combined, if they lose advertising from Pharma, it's over. Like those news networks are going to lose half their revenue overnight. That would be a death blow, Chamath, to your question.
In any event, I think that there's a very strong argument that the broadcasters have not been fair. That's a violation of their licensed requirements and we should be re-evaluating their spectrum, especially because it's not the highest best use spectrum anyway.
And then separately, with Bobby Kennedy's nomination to HHS, one of the things that he has said that he wants to put an end to is the advertising that pharma does on these broadcast stations. If you put these two things together where you deprive these folks of their largest revenue source, and at the same time, they have to sort of like answer for censorship or manipulating content, do you think that that changes the landscape of how all these companies behave in the future, or how do you think that that plays out?
I personally have never seen a B2C subscription business that works. The churn is just too high.
It's clearly going to be massive consolidation.
So I suspect that you're just going to see a lot of churn. I don't like this category at all as an investor.
Well, both the beer industry and Hollywood are both the shrinking industries. And so when you got unions demanding more and more and more of a shrinking pie, something is going to break.
I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and Hollywood have not yet grok-ed completely, which is they're not fighting each other. They're fighting TikTok, YouTube, podcasts, and people making their own content.
You guys saw the latest Disney earnings release and Eiger said, we are going to consider selling Nat Geo and a bunch of other channels. There may actually be a spinoff because content creation for that mid tier or that tail no longer makes sense.
And then my second thought is like, I just think unions in general are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay.