🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E30 (2021-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 4:21 SUPPORT

“Now, my reaction is, I don't think it's going to pass, I think it's going to be really tough to get done. And I think it probably, you know, maybe maybe there's a watered down version, but this version, I'm not super worried about.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E30 (2021-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 5:59 OPPOSE

“I think it could pass because I think they're planning to do this tax increase as part of the second infrastructure bill. ... I think that bill will pass. I don't know if the rate will stay at 39.6, but I think there will be a big increase clearly in the cap gains rate. ... And I think that this risk kind of messing up the economic recovery that's really underway already.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E30 (2021-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 37:58 OPPOSE

“I just don't see another way out and I feel like it's the natural course to do exactly what's going on right now. I think it's going to pass. I think something like it's going to pass.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E33 (2021-05-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:22 SUPPORT

“And I had heard from somebody that there just is not the broad-based support for the capital gains tax, so that's not going to happen. ... And it looks like the corporate tax will probably go to 25%, not even up to 28%.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E33 (2021-05-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:35 SUPPORT

“Chamath put it really well in the last pod that the markets are sending a message to Washington. I think some of those centrist Democrats read the message. ... I think the moderate Democrats are getting a message and they're telling the White House the package is too big and I think that's why it's coming down.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:05:39 SUPPORT

“Yeah, what I heard last week, I spoke to some folks in Washington. ... Number two is that corporate will go to 25 but not to 28 And then number three, they're going to really tighten the IP loophole, which will prevent American companies from shipping IP to places like Ireland to not pay tax. ... That's actually, to your point, a very, very good outcome for the markets.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E34 (2021-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:19 SUPPORT

“I think the Democrats started at 2.3 billion. Now I think they're at 1.7. ... So hopefully it's being brought down to a more reasonable number. That's not going to bust the budget.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E46 (2021-09-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:08 SUPPORT

“look at what Washington is about to do. They want to stomp on all this innovation. I mean, they want to jack up the cap gains rate to the same, to higher than ordinary income. ... Now, that's not going to pass, thankfully, because we got Joe Manchin, but that's about it.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:21 SUPPORT

“I mean, you're talking about a three and a half trillion dollar reconciliation bill, it'll probably get brought down to somewhere between one and a half and two.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:42 SUPPORT

“And now what we're doing is we're fighting over tax policy. And part of the reason why this bill isn't going to get passed is because of corporate tax policy and trying to raise it again.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 19:21 SUPPORT

“files a lawsuit the day after it's passed and takes it to the Supreme Court, which will get heard. And, you know, this conservative Supreme Court would not have allowed this this tax to stand. You can't target 700 people. ... And that's really what we stopped was an important slippery slope. And then in its place, I think, is a tax that is fair.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:41 SUPPORT

“They've never had committee markups on it. It's been tried and repealed in European countries. And like you said, they pull it down at the 11th hour.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 28:48 SUPPORT

“I'll say it's really important to note the market is telling Congress something here. ... And so, you know, where they end up here, I think regardless, it's going to end up needing to be some sort of reconciliation on spending to make this all work.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E58 (2021-12-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:05 SUPPORT

“We just loaded the, we put the bullet in the chamber and loaded it from Manchin. This bill is not going to happen, David, with the $3 trillion deficit increase.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E58 (2021-12-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 34:12 OPPOSE

“I hope not. I mean, but the point is that, look, if people like us don't speak up and say, this is a reckless, foolish, crazy. Pump the brakes. Yes, exactly. Then it could happen.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 29:43 SUPPORT

“that bill is dead now. I mean, they pushed it to March to basically avoid a down vote. ... Nothing's going to happen. David, you're right. I think this bill is dead. ... I bet you that it's not just mansion on the Democrats that are having a little bit of heartburn and second thoughts.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 31:38 SUPPORT

“So, I think that is why the bill is being shelved, probably not to return.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 42:33 SUPPORT

“But they do it to appease some political aspect of the Democratic Party. And then as a result, it becomes DOA. Within eight minutes of it being announced, Manchin says, this is dead. What is the point of that theater? ... these were sacrificial totems to the progressive left, meaning that they do it for window dressing, like it's like throwing a cat a ball of yarn.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 25:12 SUPPORT

“Now Biden just floated this new trial balloon over this unrealized gains tax. So last year they floated the trial balloon about basically doing a wealth tax and everyone hated it. ... they leaked that they had mansion support behind it. And then the next day, mansion came out and disavowed it and said, no, no, no, I don't support this.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E74 (2022-04-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:14 SUPPORT

“And that's where the wealth tax that was floated, which seems, it's DOA already, but this concept of everybody having, who's over $100 million having to assess all their worth and give 20% back minimum each year, is that dividing of the pie”