📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025

“I went with the old defense and aerospace providers — Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon... defense budgets are going to shift towards a more tech-oriented and ROI-driven rationalization... this government contracting business is going to be deeply challenged this year.”

“So on Thursday, what happened with Microsoft, they had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz-bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do? They went to Anderil. Now, why did they go to Anderil? Because Anderil has the technological supremacy to actually execute.”

“If you look at it today, probably the largest defense contractor in the world is DJI. They got all the drones. ... If we have a kinetic conflict right now and we don't have good drone supply chain internally in the US, we're probably going to lose because those things are autonomous bullets. That's the future of all warfare. We're buying F-35s and the Chinese are building swarms of narrowzones.”

“you can't be spending three or four billion dollars a boat and taking eight, nine, 10 years to build these things. This is not sustainable... What you have instead are system integrators with extremely deep connectivity that are able to contract well, not necessarily to invent well.”

“We've seen it in the Ukraine-Russia context that a $10,000 drone can destroy a $10 million piece of equipment and China now has drone factories that can output millions of drones each month... do we really need aircraft carriers? Do we really need tanks?”

“We had a big contest four years ago, L3, Raytheon, Northrop. These guys, in and out of government for decades, they've gotten tens of billions of dollars to the same technology area. When we went head to head with them, we didn't just beat them by a little bit. We shot down the hardened drones nine and a half times farther away. Same size, same power, nine and a half times. Completely wiped the floor.”

“Well, obviously, Boeing is the big loser here. You've got to, it's interesting to me how bad they just fumbled this.”

“And so having spent far more on the Starliner program than on the Crew Dragon program, the Starliner program is gone now. It's basically done. And the Crew Dragon program has now done 16 crewed flights to space, 11 for NASA, four private commercial flights, and continues to perform.”