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📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path

Retatrutide's triple-agonist phase-3 data (37lb loss, liver fat -80%, A1C 7.9→6.0, muscle-sparing) makes it the premium upgrade above $50-Medicare tirzepatide — 'the Mercedes to the Honda... that's where they're going to start to make all this money' — with approval possibly late 2026, mid-2027 latest, and an 'avalanche of peptides' expanding the market beyond obesity into fitness and longevity.

Plays

Mention log

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E271 (2026-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:46 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“for 50 bucks. But if you want to upgrade, get the Retatrutide, that's the high premium product. And that's where they're going to start to make all this money. That'll be the Mercedes to the Honda.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E271 (2026-05-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:02:13 SUPPORT

“it just looks like a wonder drug. I can't wait. ... It just feels like we're about to have an absolute avalanche of peptides to choose from.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 74% of moves

+30.3 → net +30.3

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 26% of moves

+10.5 → net +10.5

⏳ decay drained -11.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events