📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market
Ozempic/Wegovy/Mounjaro actually work and the besties are personally on them - Jason discloses a 41-pound loss with Ozempic doing half the work and wants 'Wegovy for everybody' as national policy, Chamath calls them incredible tools, Friedberg says the data looks great and notes patients regain the weight the moment they stop, which implies chronic lifetime dosing. Obesity treatment becomes a normalized mass-market drug category rather than a niche.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 60.2 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG NVO
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +63.7% · vs SPY +41.7%
2024-07-27
born 2023-07-27 (E139) → window closed
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path 17 (LLY) · Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path 17 (NVO)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG NVO (primary play). NVO rose 63.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +63.7% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.0% → vs SPY = +63.7 − (+22.0) = +41.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 63.7, vs SPY 41.7)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-07-27)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E172 (2024-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 49:02
SUPPORT
“they are looking at reimbursing things like Wigovia and Ozempic and whatnot. ... you put a large swath of the American population on those drugs, the reimbursement value of those drugs versus the cost of actually the chronic care management would save you many hundreds of billions of dollars a year.”
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E150 (2023-10-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:17:19
SUPPORT
“for many people from a health perspective, I think that it could be a really great solution. I think that these triple agonists that are coming out are going to be probably even more effective than these double agonists that we have right now.”
Jason
equities 49% · n=105
· E150 (2023-10-20) · sentiment · strength 3
▶ 1:16:38
SUPPORT
“I cycled off of it two or three times and had very minor weight gain back, three, four, or five pounds, but I deliberately changed my relationship with food, portion size, and I work out now ... I think it's an amazing wonder drug.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -67.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E139 2023-07-27 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E139 born by Jason (sentiment x2) |
| E139 2023-07-27 | reinforce | +18.0 | 38.0 | E139 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | reinforce | +11.1 | 37.4 | E150 Friedberg support x2 |
| E150 2023-10-20 | reinforce | +11.3 | 48.6 | E150 Jason support x3 |
| E150 2023-10-20 | reinforce | +11.6 | 60.2 | E150 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -2.4 | 57.8 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -2.3 | 55.5 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -2.2 | 53.3 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -2.1 | 51.1 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -2.0 | 49.1 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | reinforce | +7.6 | 56.7 | E159 Chamath support x2 |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -2.3 | 54.5 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -2.2 | 52.3 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -2.1 | 50.2 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -2.0 | 48.2 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.9 | 46.2 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.9 | 44.4 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.8 | 42.6 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.7 | 40.9 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.6 | 39.3 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.6 | 37.7 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.4 | 34.8 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | reinforce | +9.8 | 44.5 | E172 Chamath support x2 |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.8 | 42.8 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.7 | 41.0 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.6 | 39.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.6 | 37.8 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.5 | 36.3 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.5 | 34.9 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.3 | 32.1 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.3 | 30.8 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.2 | 28.4 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.0 | 25.2 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E189 silent |