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⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain

The DOE Loan Programs Office balance sheet (~$400B) plus the IRA credits successfully underwrite an onshored US battery and EV supply chain, and Ford/SK's $9.2B three-plant loan is the template every other OEM follows. Chamath, Brad and Jason treat it as the correct use of the government's balance sheet — energy independence as a national-security imperative that the invisible hand will not deliver, with a peace-dividend kicker. Sacks takes the other side: the money goes to the politically connected rather than the best products, so without a once-in-a-generation Elon in the portfolio it produces a lot of Solyndras.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 57.9 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG F
expression · bullish energy
WRONG
result · return -7.5% · vs SPY -35.1%
2024-06-24
born 2023-06-24 (E134) → window closed

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-06-24 → 2024-06-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG F (primary play). F fell 7.5% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -7.5% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.6% → vs SPY = -7.5 − (+27.6) = -35.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    ▶ WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath, Jason | opposed: Sacks | proxy-sensitive: GM→HIT (+32.6%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-06-24)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG Fstock PRIMARY direct recipient of the $9.2B DOE loan for three BlueOval SK battery plants; the named subject of the call
▲ LONG GMstock adjacent Chamath's explicit read-through — 'whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do'
▲ LONG LITetf adjacent lithium and battery-technology supply chain, the sector the subsidy bid flows into

Mention log newest first

Sacks
Sacks energy 47% · n=16 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 53:16 OPPOSE
“I mean, the administration just gave all these subsidies and credits to big companies like Ford and GE to make EVs, but no one wants those cars.”
Chamath
Chamath energy 27% · n=22 · E137 (2023-07-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 51:26 SUPPORT
“This specific thing is more because of the bureaucracy of the government not allowing these credits to basically work across all different kinds of cars.”
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) energy: 2 resolved, unproven · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:23:54 SUPPORT
“Listen, while generally against industrial policy, I come down on Chamath's side. I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence. It's not going to happen just according to the invisible hand of the market.”
Sacks
Sacks energy 47% · n=16 · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:23:09 OPPOSE
“So Elon was basically a fluke. I mean, you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happened to be working on this EV problem, and he got that loan. If you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio, it all looks like Solyndra. So the question is, like, what is this portfolio going to look like? Is there really going to be another Elon in there? Because if not, there's going to be a lot of Solyndras.”
Jason
Jason energy 50% · n=17 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:18:52 SUPPORT
“Jobs, energy independence and less dependency on autocratic nations.”
Chamath
Chamath energy 27% · n=22 · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:17:46 SUPPORT
“It's us using our balance sheet to make sure that we get to energy independence. So this is actually a perfect role for government. It's shaping incentives so that capitalism can do its job. What this does for Ford is Ford has a partnership with SK. And so SK has a lot of capability in Korea, but they can bring that know-how now domestically onshore to the United States. You'll be hiring thousands of people, you'll be building battery factories. Ford needs batteries. Their forecast is they'll be selling two and a half million electric vehicles by 2026, 2027 So whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath 27%
2 scoring events · 47% of moves
+49.4 → net +49.4
Sacks
Sacks 47%
2 scoring events · 27% of moves
+0.0 / -28.8 → net -28.8
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 16% of moves
+16.7 → net +16.7
Jason
Jason 50%
1 scoring event · 10% of moves
+10.4 → net +10.4

⏳ decay drained -40.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E134 2023-06-24 init +42.0 42.0 E134 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3)
E134 2023-06-24 reinforce +10.4 52.4 E134 Jason support x1 (new voice)
E134 2023-06-24 oppose -14.4 38.0 E134 Sacks opposes x3
E134 2023-06-24 reinforce +16.7 54.8 E134 Brad Gerstner support x3 (new voice)
E135 2023-07-01 decay -2.2 52.6 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -2.1 50.5 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 reinforce +7.4 57.9 E137 Chamath support x2
E137 2023-07-14 oppose -14.4 43.5 E137 Sacks opposes x3
E139 2023-07-27 decay -1.7 41.8 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -1.7 40.1 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -1.6 38.5 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -1.5 37.0 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -1.5 35.5 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -1.4 34.1 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -1.4 32.7 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 decay -1.3 31.4 E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07 decay -1.3 30.1 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -1.2 28.9 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -1.2 27.8 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -1.1 26.7 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -1.1 25.6 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -1.0 24.6 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 decay -1.0 23.6 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -0.9 22.6 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 decay -0.9 21.7 E159 silent
E160 2024-01-06 decay -0.9 20.9 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -0.8 20.0 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -0.8 19.2 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -0.8 18.5 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -0.7 17.7 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -0.7 17.0 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -0.7 16.3 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -0.7 15.7 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -0.6 15.1 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -0.6 14.4 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -0.6 13.9 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -0.6 13.3 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -0.5 12.8 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -0.5 12.3 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -0.5 11.8 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -0.5 11.3 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -0.5 10.9 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -0.4 10.4 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -0.4 10.0 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -0.4 9.6 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -0.4 9.2 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -0.4 8.9 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.4 8.5 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -0.3 8.2 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -0.3 7.8 E184 silent