+0.0
net board stance
what this means
198.9
-0.9% · close 2026-09-08
-10% / +10% / +31%
1m / 3m / 12m
+48%
vs SPY since 2025-01-04
65%
of 52w range · -11.8% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 47 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on RTX
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -33.4% | -49.5 | 2026-01-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding RTX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 1:13:49
And so having spent far more on the Starliner program than on the Crew Dragon program, the Starliner program is gone now. It's basically done. And the Crew Dragon program has now done 16 crewed flights to space, 11 for NASA, four private commercial flights, and continues to perform.
CY
Cyan Banister
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 1:15:18
Well, obviously, Boeing is the big loser here. You've got to, it's interesting to me how bad they just fumbled this.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 34:07
We had a big contest four years ago, L3, Raytheon, Northrop. These guys, in and out of government for decades, they've gotten tens of billions of dollars to the same technology area. When we went head to head with them, we didn't just beat them by a little bit. We shot down the hardened drones nine and a half times farther away. Same size, same power, nine and a half times. Completely wiped the floor.
Friedberg
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 38:07
We've seen it in the Ukraine-Russia context that a $10,000 drone can destroy a $10 million piece of equipment and China now has drone factories that can output millions of drones each month... do we really need aircraft carriers? Do we really need tanks?
Chamath
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 35:23
you can't be spending three or four billion dollars a boat and taking eight, nine, 10 years to build these things. This is not sustainable... What you have instead are system integrators with extremely deep connectivity that are able to contract well, not necessarily to invent well.
NA
Naval Ravikant
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E215 · 2025-02-15
▶ 1:18:39
If you look at it today, probably the largest defense contractor in the world is DJI. They got all the drones. ... If we have a kinetic conflict right now and we don't have good drone supply chain internally in the US, we're probably going to lose because those things are autonomous bullets. That's the future of all warfare. We're buying F-35s and the Chinese are building swarms of narrowzones.
Chamath
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E215 · 2025-02-15
▶ 37:54
So on Thursday, what happened with Microsoft, they had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz-bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do? They went to Anderil. Now, why did they go to Anderil? Because Anderil has the technological supremacy to actually execute.
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E209 · 2025-01-04
▶ 41:27
I went with the old defense and aerospace providers — Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon... defense budgets are going to shift towards a more tech-oriented and ROI-driven rationalization... this government contracting business is going to be deeply challenged this year.