📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left

“It's literally not just photos. It's like the phone doesn't work. So there are just core structural issues with this operating system now that makes the iPhone maybe 10% to 30% less usable. And that's really frustrating.”

“And but now, like my photos app is completely unusable. So I totally understand, you know, Chamath, the frustration and they are showing like the decay function, you know, culturally and otherwise, that eventually somebody will figure out an angle to rip them out.”

“both of these businesses are victims of their own success”

“there could be another decade or so where Apple can continue to run this play with very little impact”

“what happens when a company gets to this level of maturity, much like has happened with Apple, is the multiples compress”

“My prediction is Apple buys a search engine and they go it alone and expand their advertising network like Amazon, Uber and other companies have.”

“But if you're holding Apple today, I think you have to take the $20 billion that Google pays you every year, which comes in at 99% margin, and you should probably sensitize the value of Apple for not having that 20 billion if this antitrust ruling against Google stands.”

“So because this business is not yet a regulated monopoly, it may be a monopoly in many senses of the word, it's not regulated yet, and that transition could be financially painful for Apple.”

“if you're running out of in-house innovation and you can't do M&A, then your options are kind of limited. I mean, I do think that the fact that the big news out of Apple is the iPads getting thinner does represent kind of the end of the road in terms of innovation.”

“Apple hasn't bought anything more than $50 or $100 million. And so the idea that all of a sudden they come out of the blue and buy a $10, $20 billion company, I think is just totally doesn't stand logic.”

“It seems like a car is the only thing people can think of that would move the needle in terms of earnings.”

“They need some new products. I mean, maybe Apple Vision Pro someday becomes the platform of the future, but they've squeezed as much revenue as they can out of the iPhone.”

“I think, to your point, Chamath, the challenge Apple is facing is that the pool of options, the portfolio of call options that you would get a new product coming out of Apple is shrinking. Very limited.”

“But Apple is a company now that grows as the economy of the world grows. So that is not super great for its future prospects, unless it can expand the surface area of where they operate ... So all of these things, I think, mean to me that it is effectively becoming a cyclical rate sensitive stock.”