+0.0
net board stance
what this means
73.77
-0.6% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / -6% / +44%
1m / 3m / 12m
-106%
vs SPY since 2022-10-14
59%
of 52w range · -19.1% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α -22
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on LIT
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.33, average α -21.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30% | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +13.9% | +6.5 | 2022-03-13 |
| 🛢️ Battery metals are the best-performing asset of 2022 | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -29.2% | -10.8 | 2022-12-29 |
| 🤖 In-silico materials discovery cracks cheap battery chemistry | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -38.7% | -60.7 | 2024-07-27 |
| ⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -7.5% | -35.1 | 2024-06-24 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding LIT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
This Korean team did is they had a separate paper that they published talking about the demonstration of using AI to try and be predictive around quantum mechanics, which is something that people said we can't really do quantum modeling until we get quantum computers.
And what we're finding is, holy shit, like we don't know anything. And there are these like really big breakthroughs, one which we'll probably announce in like the next few weeks because we just raised a bunch of money around this idea.
This specific thing is more because of the bureaucracy of the government not allowing these credits to basically work across all different kinds of cars.
I mean, the administration just gave all these subsidies and credits to big companies like Ford and GE to make EVs, but no one wants those cars.
Jobs, energy independence and less dependency on autocratic nations.
So Elon was basically a fluke. I mean, you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happened to be working on this EV problem, and he got that loan. If you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio, it all looks like Solyndra. So the question is, like, what is this portfolio going to look like? Is there really going to be another Elon in there? Because if not, there's going to be a lot of Solyndras.
Listen, while generally against industrial policy, I come down on Chamath's side. I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence. It's not going to happen just according to the invisible hand of the market.
It's us using our balance sheet to make sure that we get to energy independence. So this is actually a perfect role for government. It's shaping incentives so that capitalism can do its job. What this does for Ford is Ford has a partnership with SK. And so SK has a lot of capability in Korea, but they can bring that know-how now domestically onshore to the United States. You'll be hiring thousands of people, you'll be building battery factories. Ford needs batteries. Their forecast is they'll be selling two and a half million electric vehicles by 2026, 2027 So whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do.
our investing focus, we've moved in the last 18 months to focus a lot on these things. Lithium mines, I mean, the stuff that we're doing seems insane. If you had asked me, would you be sweating a mine in India, you know, and sending our CFO and a partner to go and make sure the mine exists, I never would have thought that it's possible.
all of that results in us needing batteries while batteries need lithium. There's enormous lithium deposits in the United States that today can never get access
This is simple. This will be battery metals. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite. Put them in a basket. You can be long these things.
China has done a masterful job. They control a lot of the lithium, a lot of the nickel, a lot of the cobalt, a lot of the graphite. They control a lot of the rare earths that go into the permanent magnets. And we don't have a solution.
We don't have rare earths. We don't have lithium. We don't have nickel. We don't have cobalt. We don't have graphite. So we actually can't make the batteries, which means that now oil is at $100 a barrel and gas costs $10 at the pump.
yesterday, we're starting something really ambitious in batteries, and I have to sit there for an hour, and we have to go through ordering the equipment, setting up the lab, getting the human resource
I had a kickoff meeting for a startup that's doing something incredible in batteries ... and then I had a call because I'm trying to put a you know, more than a billion dollars to work in a different battery idea.
if you believe in electrification and you believe in, you know, zero emissions and you believe in using these batteries, you need to believe in nickel, which is a tough business, okay? ... And right now, we have a deficit of nickel that's going to emerge now in less than a year. ... And we have about a 37 to 40% shortage of what we need.
if you break down the batteries, it goes into three critical inputs, lithium, nickel and cobalt. ... And so the cost of Tesla's are going to go up by 20 or 30%