PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.

stock all instruments
+15.9
net board stance what this means
171.3
-1.7% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / +30% / +10%
1m / 3m / 12m
+25%
vs SPY since 2025-02-07
64%
of 52w range · -17.3% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +466

Where we stand — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
🤖 Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses ▲ LONG primary 15.9 +15.9 65d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Sacks
Sacks w=0.97 politics-market
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E279
+6
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath w=1.02 politics-market
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E251
+5
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=1.00 politics-market
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E164
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84 politics-market
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E174
+2
pushes up
CY
Cyan Banister w=1.00 equities guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E220
+2
pushes up

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2026-11-14 65d 🤖 Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses 16

Track record on PLTR

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +465.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +93.1% +57.0 2024-10-13
📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment ▲ LONG primary HIT +484.2% +465.8 2025-07-26

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding PLTR, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses E279 · 2026-07-03 ▶ 4:08
It was all these legacy media types making that claim. That's the first clue that he's actually saying something insightful and maybe kind of brilliant. ... what technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha,
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses E251 · 2025-11-14 ▶ 15:16
I think the Palantir short is stupid. And I think that those people will lose money. ... Palantir is both unique and well-run. And there's no clear alternative, so there's no place to churn to. ... the duration and the durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you typically see ... I'm neither long nor short. I was long in the private markets.
CY Cyan Banister support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 38:18
I think that the government has long relied on private industry to solve some of its biggest problems, and that's what sets us apart from other countries in the world. And so you look at some of the best companies like SpaceX, Andoril, etc. We need more companies like this if we're going to compete. And so doing this absolutely makes sense, and it's just going to help the sales cycle to get that sort of stamp of approval that our government is using that software.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 37:59
I suspect palatiers go to market. When they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 35:57
For example, the most highly valued public software company right now in terms of ARR multiple is Palantir. I think that's largely because the market perceives Palantir is having a big AI opportunity.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 1:30:01
We didn't have a set price. The government didn't come and say, you will build it for X and I'm only doing it one time. The free market was able to solve this problem, and it turned out the more capable solution was 40 percent cheaper than the one that they thought was going to work.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment E189 · 2024-07-26 ▶ 17:10
I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 1:09:18
the investors in Silicon Valley that are making these investments are likely going to outperform those who are not
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 1:09:18
eight years ago, I came to this conclusion and I invested in this company called SailDrone, which is autonomous drones in the seas. Our customers include the US Navy
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 1:14:28
the defense industry is consolidated down to these five prime defense contractors who are basically in oligopoly. And we have this cost plus procurement system where they just raise their prices every year and the government pays it... the only way that's going to change is if the defense industry gets disrupted by a bunch of startups doing innovative things
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 49:02
on the defense side, there's a large portion of that budget that's migrating away from traditional tactical warfare to things that are unmanned vehicles and cyber and whatnot, that could save two or $300 billion there
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:22:32
There's no competition and they're charging cost plus. They're not innovating anymore. And they need competition, right? Just like SpaceX was massive competition for all of the governmental agencies around doing space travel.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:28:28
we led the Series A in a company called SailDrone about seven years ago. ... it is incredibly hard for startups, no matter how innovative we've been to break through this logjam.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:27:49
there's no question that we need to shake up the military industrial complex. We need to get a lot more startups in there. There's a lot of VCs now who are funding defense startups. ... this is going to be a huge area of innovation. And I think that because of the Ukraine war, the Pentagon must now realize the urgency of being able to mass produce effective drones, as well as create effective drone air defense.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E158 · 2023-12-23 ▶ 35:32
you can really do incredible damage to very expensive airplanes with hypersonic missiles that go incredibly fast or like Mach 5 or something insane, and they're cheap. ... So $100 million or $20 million fighter jet can just be annihilated by a couple of $100,000 in hypersonic missiles.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E158 · 2023-12-23 ▶ 33:25
the asymmetry of the warfare that the hoodies can launch a drone or a cheap missile that costs thousands of dollars and it costs us millions of dollars to shoot it down. ... That is just not sustainable for the US.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E149 · 2023-10-13 ▶ 52:31
In Silicon Valley, we have now the funding of military startups, and there's a whole new class of warfare, supersonics, drones, quadcopters
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech E149 · 2023-10-13 ▶ 47:09
But the thing that I think we agree with is that the US better bring more innovation into the military industrial complex and figure out, like, procurement, because our whole cost plus system right now is so broken. There was an article recently in The New York Times where it said that the cost of the United States of producing an artillery shell is $6,000. For Russia, it's $600.