+15.9
net board stance
what this means
171.3
-1.7% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / +30% / +10%
1m / 3m / 12m
+25%
vs SPY since 2025-02-07
64%
of 52w range · -17.3% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +466
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses | ▲ LONG | primary | 15.9 | +15.9 | — | 65d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on PLTR
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +465.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +93.1% | +57.0 | 2024-10-13 |
| 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +484.2% | +465.8 | 2025-07-26 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding PLTR, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
It was all these legacy media types making that claim. That's the first clue that he's actually saying something insightful and maybe kind of brilliant. ... what technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha,
I think the Palantir short is stupid. And I think that those people will lose money. ... Palantir is both unique and well-run. And there's no clear alternative, so there's no place to churn to. ... the duration and the durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you typically see ... I'm neither long nor short. I was long in the private markets.
CY
Cyan Banister
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 38:18
I think that the government has long relied on private industry to solve some of its biggest problems, and that's what sets us apart from other countries in the world. And so you look at some of the best companies like SpaceX, Andoril, etc. We need more companies like this if we're going to compete. And so doing this absolutely makes sense, and it's just going to help the sales cycle to get that sort of stamp of approval that our government is using that software.
I suspect palatiers go to market. When they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives.
For example, the most highly valued public software company right now in terms of ARR multiple is Palantir. I think that's largely because the market perceives Palantir is having a big AI opportunity.
We didn't have a set price. The government didn't come and say, you will build it for X and I'm only doing it one time. The free market was able to solve this problem, and it turned out the more capable solution was 40 percent cheaper than the one that they thought was going to work.
I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
the investors in Silicon Valley that are making these investments are likely going to outperform those who are not
eight years ago, I came to this conclusion and I invested in this company called SailDrone, which is autonomous drones in the seas. Our customers include the US Navy
the defense industry is consolidated down to these five prime defense contractors who are basically in oligopoly. And we have this cost plus procurement system where they just raise their prices every year and the government pays it... the only way that's going to change is if the defense industry gets disrupted by a bunch of startups doing innovative things
on the defense side, there's a large portion of that budget that's migrating away from traditional tactical warfare to things that are unmanned vehicles and cyber and whatnot, that could save two or $300 billion there
There's no competition and they're charging cost plus. They're not innovating anymore. And they need competition, right? Just like SpaceX was massive competition for all of the governmental agencies around doing space travel.
we led the Series A in a company called SailDrone about seven years ago. ... it is incredibly hard for startups, no matter how innovative we've been to break through this logjam.
there's no question that we need to shake up the military industrial complex. We need to get a lot more startups in there. There's a lot of VCs now who are funding defense startups. ... this is going to be a huge area of innovation. And I think that because of the Ukraine war, the Pentagon must now realize the urgency of being able to mass produce effective drones, as well as create effective drone air defense.
you can really do incredible damage to very expensive airplanes with hypersonic missiles that go incredibly fast or like Mach 5 or something insane, and they're cheap. ... So $100 million or $20 million fighter jet can just be annihilated by a couple of $100,000 in hypersonic missiles.
the asymmetry of the warfare that the hoodies can launch a drone or a cheap missile that costs thousands of dollars and it costs us millions of dollars to shoot it down. ... That is just not sustainable for the US.
In Silicon Valley, we have now the funding of military startups, and there's a whole new class of warfare, supersonics, drones, quadcopters
But the thing that I think we agree with is that the US better bring more innovation into the military industrial complex and figure out, like, procurement, because our whole cost plus system right now is so broken. There was an article recently in The New York Times where it said that the cost of the United States of producing an artillery shell is $6,000. For Russia, it's $600.