🏛️ Delaware voiding Elon's package chills performance comp and drives charter flight
Chamath and Sacks on the Chancery ruling voiding Tesla's 2018 all-milestone package: an increasingly unpredictable Delaware court makes all-upside founder comp unwritable, so boards default to gameable plans, the best operators reincorporate elsewhere (Chamath discloses his newer companies are in Nevada) and stay private longer. Bearish the listed vehicle that just had $55.8B of CEO incentive voided and now carries appeal, re-grant and reincorporation overhang.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 61.6 WATCH
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT TSLA
expression · bearish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -115.3% · α -138.6%
2025-02-02
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
also touching these tickers, same direction: Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 28 (TSLA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT TSLA (primary play). TSLA rose 115.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -115.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +23.3%
→ α = -115.3 − (+23.3) = -138.6%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -92.0% — did TSLA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-02-02)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | TSLA | stock | PRIMARY | the company whose CEO package was voided; appeal, re-grant and reincorporation risk lands here |
| ▼ SHORT | IPO | etf | adjacent | the stated response is founders staying private longer, which thins the recent-IPO cohort |
Mention log
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E164 (2024-02-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 46:48
SUPPORT
“It will have a chilling effect, I think, in how people think about compensation. It will cause companies to be even more constipated and sclerotic and unimaginative as a result of this because the most talented individual entrepreneurs now have even more of an incentive for incorporating in other places and also staying private.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -72.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E164 2024-02-02 | init | +42.9 | 42.9 | E164 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.02] |
| E164 2024-02-02 | reinforce | +12.4 | 55.3 | E164 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -2.0 | 48.9 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.7 | 41.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.2 | 30.0 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | reinforce | +12.8 | 39.3 | E183 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E183 2024-06-14 | reinforce | +11.2 | 50.4 | E183 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E183 2024-06-14 | reinforce | +11.1 | 61.6 | E183 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -2.5 | 59.1 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -2.4 | 56.8 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -2.3 | 54.5 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -2.2 | 52.3 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -2.1 | 50.2 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -2.0 | 48.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.9 | 46.3 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.9 | 44.4 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.8 | 42.7 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.7 | 41.0 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.6 | 39.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.6 | 37.7 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.4 | 34.8 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.4 | 33.4 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.3 | 32.1 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.3 | 30.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.2 | 28.4 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E213 silent |