🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model

“these DTC brands got a double whammy because Apple, what they was last year when they changed their privacy rules and their customer acquisition models on Instagram, Facebook, all these things stopped working.”

“The macro thing is that we are learning the broad sweeping impact of Apple's privacy changes, in my opinion. ... So the point is that I think Netflix in some ways was a little bit of a canary in the coal mine for the shrinking effectiveness of online advertising. ... And it's only going to get worse because Google has also said that they're going to implement a lot of the same versions of what Apple did inside of Android. So customer acquisition is going up.”

“But Facebook always knew. And as we just discovered, that was always going to be a weak point for them because they were dependent upon hardware devices that were going to let them do that tracking across apps and across sites.”

“Well, they're losing $10 billion a year now because of this one permissions change that Apple has made, right? Because they're completely dependent on Apple's operating system for a big portion of their revenue. So, what is their defense against that? I mean, they're really pretty helpless.”

“One is that when they talked about usage kind of flattening and starting to decay, what they're really talking about is TikTok. And I think what we learned is that TikTok is an enormous threat and a huge competitive force now in the consumer social app ecosystem. ... The second is that Facebook is fundamentally an app that sits inside of an ecosystem that is subject to the rules of the platform owner, and that's Apple and Google. And so this IDFA change, so the change in how you can track advertisers, Facebook said is going to have a $10 billion impact in 2022”

“For example, this Apple, you know, ad revenue business, I think, is climbing by billions of dollars while Facebook's core business is being affected by the cookie tracking policy change on Apple iOS.”

“You can see it in the enormous amount of investment Apple, for example, is making in both advertising, the push to privacy, as well as implementing the push to privacy. You know, this last WWDC, you know, they really threw the gauntlet down, you know, they were really trying to blow up the advertising business models of Google and Facebook.”