📈 Robinhood keeps compounding — product velocity plus retail loyalty
Robinhood 'keeps releasing exceptional products over and over' (401ks, margin, crypto, new verticals every six months) on its way to being the default home for retail finances — a disclosed long from $12 that the holder keeps adding to.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 29.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG HOOD
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -16.3% · α -38.3%
2026-08-15
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 12 (HOOD) · Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization 10 (HOOD)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-08-15 → 2026-08-15 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG HOOD (primary play). HOOD fell 16.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -16.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.0% → α = -16.3 − (+22.0) = -38.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-08-15)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | HOOD | stock | PRIMARY | the disclosed position itself |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E239 (2025-08-15) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 1:23:17
SUPPORT
“Having been an investor in Uber and Robinhood when they were $5 and $20 million companies... I did the same for Robinhood at $12 [as a public investor]... they keep releasing exceptional products over and over again... when it was at $12, I was like, this obviously is undervalued, I'm just going to buy more. And now it's at $120 — a 12-bagger in the public markets.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -24.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E239 2025-08-15 | init | +29.1 | 29.1 | E239 born by Jason (positioning x2) [w=0.97] |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E285 silent |