📈 Ocean freight stays broken - capacity shrinks again and rates go higher
The container system does not normalise: door-to-door transit is already 115 days versus 50 pre-pandemic, the ILWU West Coast contract expires July 1 2022, and the IMO's January 1 2023 rule forces every existing ship to cut carbon emissions 13% - achievable on an internal combustion engine only by sailing about 30% slower, which removes roughly that much effective capacity from the network. Container rates, already up ~10x from the $2,000 norm, go higher rather than mean-reverting, and the rule achieves no actual carbon reduction because the same containers move on the same ships.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 49.0 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG ZIM
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -47.8% · α -41.5%
2023-02-05
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ZIM (primary play). ZIM fell 47.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -47.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -6.3% → α = -47.8 − (-6.3) = -41.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: nobody | opposed: Ryan Petersen
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-02-05)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ZIM | stock | PRIMARY | container liner with almost pure exposure to spot ocean freight rates |
| ▲ LONG | BDRY | etf | adjacent | freight-futures ETF as a direct proxy for shipping rates rather than carrier equity |
| ▲ LONG | MATX | stock | adjacent | Pacific container operator levered to expedited trans-Pacific rates |
Mention log
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.17 · n=6
· E66 (2022-02-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 36:26
SUPPORT
· horizon 11mo
“But it will reduce the supply of shipping capacity and slow everything down another 30 percent. That takes place January 1st, 2023 It's getting very little attention, but to my view, it's going to be massively disruptive if we slow everything down, reduce the capacity of the network that much further. Prices are going to go to the moon.”
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.17 · n=6
· E82 (2022-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 44:13
REVERSAL
· horizon 36mo
“have actually ordered 25% more ships, increased the fleet by 25% over the next three years ... So it could be ugly the other way, real quick. You have too many ships and the ship owners can't make any money.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
RY
+49.0 / -16.6
→ net +32.4
⏳ decay drained -29.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E66 2022-02-05 | init | +49.0 | 49.0 | E66 born by Ryan Petersen (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.17] |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.3 | 30.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | reversal | -16.6 | 11.1 | E82 Ryan Petersen flips |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E114 silent |