🛢️ Battery metals are the best-performing asset of 2022
EV/battery demand makes a basket of battery metals — lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite — the top asset class of 2022.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.8 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG LIT
expression · bullish commodities
WRONG
result · return -29.2% · vs SPY -10.8%
2022-12-29
born 2021-12-29 (E61) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG LIT (primary play). LIT fell 29.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -29.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -18.4% → vs SPY = -29.2 − (-18.4) = -10.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: ALB→PARTIAL (-5.9%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-12-29)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Chamath
commodities 40% · n=10
· E81 (2022-05-23) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 20:00
SUPPORT
“our investing focus, we've moved in the last 18 months to focus a lot on these things. Lithium mines, I mean, the stuff that we're doing seems insane. If you had asked me, would you be sweating a mine in India, you know, and sending our CFO and a partner to go and make sure the mine exists, I never would have thought that it's possible.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -49.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E61 2021-12-29 | init | +40.0 | 40.0 | E61 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x2) |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | reinforce | +10.8 | 38.5 | E72 Chamath support x2 |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.5 | 37.0 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.4 | 34.1 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.3 | 30.2 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.2 | 29.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | reinforce | +13.0 | 40.8 | E81 Chamath support x3 |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.6 | 39.2 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E109 silent |