+0.0
net board stance
what this means
538.21
+2.5% · close 2026-09-08
-8% / +2% / +20%
1m / 3m / 12m
-57%
vs SPY since 2023-10-20
45%
of 52w range · -19.4% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on LMT
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +8.2% | -15.0 | 2024-02-11 |
| 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -33.4% | -49.5 | 2026-01-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding LMT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And so having spent far more on the Starliner program than on the Crew Dragon program, the Starliner program is gone now. It's basically done. And the Crew Dragon program has now done 16 crewed flights to space, 11 for NASA, four private commercial flights, and continues to perform.
CY
Cyan Banister
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 1:15:18
Well, obviously, Boeing is the big loser here. You've got to, it's interesting to me how bad they just fumbled this.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 34:07
We had a big contest four years ago, L3, Raytheon, Northrop. These guys, in and out of government for decades, they've gotten tens of billions of dollars to the same technology area. When we went head to head with them, we didn't just beat them by a little bit. We shot down the hardened drones nine and a half times farther away. Same size, same power, nine and a half times. Completely wiped the floor.
We've seen it in the Ukraine-Russia context that a $10,000 drone can destroy a $10 million piece of equipment and China now has drone factories that can output millions of drones each month... do we really need aircraft carriers? Do we really need tanks?
you can't be spending three or four billion dollars a boat and taking eight, nine, 10 years to build these things. This is not sustainable... What you have instead are system integrators with extremely deep connectivity that are able to contract well, not necessarily to invent well.
NA
Naval Ravikant
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
E215 · 2025-02-15
▶ 1:18:39
If you look at it today, probably the largest defense contractor in the world is DJI. They got all the drones. ... If we have a kinetic conflict right now and we don't have good drone supply chain internally in the US, we're probably going to lose because those things are autonomous bullets. That's the future of all warfare. We're buying F-35s and the Chinese are building swarms of narrowzones.
So on Thursday, what happened with Microsoft, they had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz-bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do? They went to Anderil. Now, why did they go to Anderil? Because Anderil has the technological supremacy to actually execute.
I went with the old defense and aerospace providers — Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon... defense budgets are going to shift towards a more tech-oriented and ROI-driven rationalization... this government contracting business is going to be deeply challenged this year.
And when it does happen, you get this lunatic fringe who unfortunately are some of the leaders of the Republican Party calling for a larger war against Iran.
The majority of people don't want to be involved in foreign wars. That's across both parties.
I can't imagine anybody would want to do more military action at this point in time when the American public is exhausted from it.
The problem is that with every war, the mainstream media starts propagandizing for the wars, and they'll basically demonize whoever it is that we're going to go to war with and explaining why they're a huge threat. They'll engage in threat inflation, and so the American people end up supporting it.
Will policymakers in Washington change their tune or change their perspective on this? Probably not, the uniparty of both Republicans and Democrats are still seems to be a majority who want to fund another 61 billion for Ukraine.
I've shared my point of view for a couple of years now. I think the US is in a, call it subconscious conflict escalatory state that would continue to drive us into these sorts of conflict
there's significant material and industrial production shortages, not just in the US, but around the world, to support rising conventional wars that seem to be scaling all over
our industrial capacity is so hollowed out that it's going to take us five plus years to replace our stockpiles of artillery ammunition, of javelins, of stingers
That artillery stockpile was basically taken and given to Ukraine. Remember, we ran out of the key type of ammunition in the Ukraine War, which is 155-millimeter artillery shells. That's why we gave them cluster bombs. The US is already dangerously low on ammunition, and that's before we get potentially another war or another front in this larger global conflagration that's happening.
And I think there is growing opposition to a blank check as long as it takes policy towards Ukraine. We've already appropriated over 100 billion. What's the return on investment of that? The counteroffensive failed.
From 2015 to 2021, we could have gone along with efforts under the Minsk Accords to resolve this conflict in the Donbass peacefully, but we never did that. We never gave it any support.
both Republicans and Democrats want more military spending. I don't hear anybody really argue for cutting military spending ... but the Democrats are completely on board with war now
And the people who are attacking him now are all these neocons. It's basically the whole military industrial complex. It's all the bought and paid for politicians and think tanks who want America to be in these forever wars. So I think he's being attacked by the right people, and that's going to help him.
It's a combination of being trapped in legacy thinking where we have to be the policemen of the world combined with all the big donors in the party, many of whom are wrapped up with the military industrial complex, want to contribute to that.
I do think that the solution is 10 more Palmer Luckeys. I mean, I think the Silicon Valley's anti-supporting the military is a crazy position that needs to change and we should make more weapons and have VC-backed companies making weapon systems
it's obviously going to require a significant influx of capital by some estimates up to $2 trillion to increase the security capacity of NATO
Now, you know who it's an asset for is the military industrial complex, because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend 2% of their GDP on defense.