🏛️ Immunity plus Fisher rulings collapse the January 6 prosecution
Trump v. United States (presumptive immunity for official acts) combined with Fisher v. US (Sarbanes-Oxley obstruction misapplied to January 6) have gutted Jack Smith's election-interference case: every alleged act now has to be relitigated as official or personal, and the obstruction theory behind roughly 200 convictions is void. Sacks' call is that the case never reaches a verdict and Smith should resign, which lifts Trump's criminal-legal overhang.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 41.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG DJT
expression · bullish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -35.0% · α -49.2%
2025-07-04
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-07-04 → 2025-07-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG DJT (primary play). DJT fell 35.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -35.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.2% → α = -35.0 − (+14.2) = -49.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-07-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | DJT | stock | PRIMARY | listed proxy on Trump's political odds and on his legal overhang lifting |
Mention log
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E186 2024-07-04 | init | +40.6 | 40.6 | E186 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E186 2024-07-04 | oppose | -12.0 | 28.6 | E186 Jason opposes x2 |
| E186 2024-07-04 | reinforce | +13.1 | 41.7 | E186 Chamath support x1 (new voice) [w=1.02] |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E234 silent |