🤖 Tech has another tough year in 2023
Markets pay for over-earning, not value to society; tech under-earns and has a tough 2023.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 47.7 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT QQQ
expression · bearish tech
WRONG
result · return -48.6% · vs SPY -71.0%
2024-01-06
born 2023-01-06 (E110) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
QQQ ·
It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
LONG
GREEN 75.6
← stronger than this idea (9.7)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT QQQ (primary play). QQQ rose 48.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -48.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4%
→ vs SPY = -48.6 − (+22.4) = -71.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -26.2% — did QQQ move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Brad Gerstner
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-01-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | QQQ | etf | PRIMARY | broad tech expression of 'tech will have a tough year' |
Mention log newest first
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
tech 71% · n=17
· E133 (2023-06-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 14:05
OPPOSE
“We're still trading below the 10-year average for internet and software companies based upon our numbers.”
Sacks
tech 39% · n=53
· E114 (2023-02-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:01:22
SUPPORT
“The tech ecosystem is clearly going through a reset and a recession. Job cuts are now the rule, valuations are much lower, whereas in the overall economy, we saw jobs support today of over 500,000 new jobs. So, the fact of the matter is that even if the overall economy avoids a recession, that doesn't mean that things are just going to bounce back. Tech is a boom bust cycle and we had a phenomenal 10 years of boom.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -40.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E110 2023-01-06 | init | +32.0 | 32.0 | E110 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x1) |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | reinforce | +19.4 | 47.7 | E114 Sacks support x3 (new voice) |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.9 | 45.8 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.8 | 43.9 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.8 | 42.2 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.7 | 40.5 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.6 | 37.3 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.5 | 35.8 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | oppose | -14.4 | 10.4 | E133 Brad Gerstner opposes x3 |
| E133 2023-06-16 | reinforce | +13.4 | 23.8 | E133 Chamath support x2 |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E160 silent |