📈 Liquid biopsy is the one blood-diagnostic thesis that actually works
Chamath's post-Theranos read: single-drop general blood panels are physically impossible, but cell-free cancer DNA detection from a small blood volume is real and already a good business — and it runs on expensive sequencing machinery bought from Illumina, making the toolmaker the toll booth.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 20.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ILMN
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -54.4% · vs SPY -44.5%
2022-09-18
born 2021-09-18 (E47) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ILMN (primary play). ILMN fell 54.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -54.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.8% → vs SPY = -54.4 − (-9.8) = -44.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-09-18)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ILMN | stock | PRIMARY | supplies the sequencers the liquid-biopsy players depend on, and owns GRAIL after the August 2021 close |
| ▲ LONG | EXAS | stock | adjacent | Exact Sciences is the other scaled blood/molecular cancer-screening franchise |
| ▲ LONG | GH | stock | adjacent | Guardant Health is the named pure-play cell-free-DNA business |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E47 (2021-09-18) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:13:15
SUPPORT
“The only version of this problem that has been solved well is the ability to detect cell-free cancer DNA in blood, using a very small quantum of blood. Companies like Garden and Grail have actually done and built a great business out of it. But it requires extremely sophisticated machinery sold to them by Illumina and others.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E47 2021-09-18 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E47 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E96 silent |