📈 Liquid biopsy is the one blood-diagnostic thesis that actually works
Chamath's post-Theranos read: single-drop general blood panels are physically impossible, but cell-free cancer DNA detection from a small blood volume is real and already a good business — and it runs on expensive sequencing machinery bought from Illumina, making the toolmaker the toll booth.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 16.8 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ILMN
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -54.4% · α -44.5%
2022-09-18
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ILMN (primary play). ILMN fell 54.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -54.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.8% → α = -54.4 − (-9.8) = -44.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-09-18)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ILMN | stock | PRIMARY | supplies the sequencers the liquid-biopsy players depend on, and owns GRAIL after the August 2021 close |
| ▲ LONG | EXAS | stock | adjacent | Exact Sciences is the other scaled blood/molecular cancer-screening franchise |
| ▲ LONG | GH | stock | adjacent | Guardant Health is the named pure-play cell-free-DNA business |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E47 (2021-09-18) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:13:15
SUPPORT
“The only version of this problem that has been solved well is the ability to detect cell-free cancer DNA in blood, using a very small quantum of blood. Companies like Garden and Grail have actually done and built a great business out of it. But it requires extremely sophisticated machinery sold to them by Illumina and others.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E47 2021-09-18 | init | +16.8 | 16.8 | E47 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=0.84] |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.1 | 2.6 | E96 silent |