TSLA

Tesla, Inc.

stock all instruments
+23.6
net board stance what this means
369.1
+4.2% · close 2026-09-08
+12% / -7% / +7%
1m / 3m / 12m
-23%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
37%
of 52w range · -24.7% off high
1/10
hit rate as primary · α -35
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF — 1 live bullish idea (+51.8) against 1 bearish (-28.2). Net them before sizing; don't hold both expressions.

Where we stand — 2 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab ▲ LONG primary 51.8 +51.8 226d
🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis ▼ SHORT primary 28.2 -28.2 219d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Sacks
Sacks w=0.89 equities
9 ideas (0 live) · last heard E204
+9
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
12 ideas (1 live) · last heard E286
+8
pushes up
EL
Elon Musk guest ×1.0
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E249
+5
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08 tech
6 ideas (0 live) · last heard E232
+2
pushes up
CY
Cyan Banister guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E210
+2
pushes up
PH
Philippe Laffont guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E227
+2
pushes up
SA
Sam Altman guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E178
+1
pushes up
TR
Travis Kalanick w=1.33 tech guest ×1.0
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E269
+1
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
13 ideas (1 live) · last heard E278
+0
neutral
MA
Mark Cuban guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E198
-2
pushes down
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker w=1.46 tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E221
-2
pushes down

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2027-04-17 219d 🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 28
2027-04-24 226d 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab 52

Track record on TSLA

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 2 partial / 7 miss over 10 closed windows — credit 0.2, average α -35.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware ▲ LONG primary PARTIAL +6.6% -9.5 2026-01-04
🤖 Musk turns Twitter around fast - MAU value doubles or triples ▲ LONG primary MISS -8.9% -16.9 2023-10-29
📈 Tesla's 40% drawdown is mispriced against an on-plan Master Plan ▲ LONG primary HIT +69.3% +59.6 2025-04-26
🏛️ Federal agencies run a coordinated regulatory campaign against Elon's companies ▼ SHORT primary MISS -83.7% -113.5 2024-12-16
🏛️ Delaware voiding Elon's package chills performance comp and drives charter flight ▼ SHORT primary MISS -115.3% -138.6 2025-02-02
📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers ▲ LONG primary MISS -46.5% -27.9 2022-11-06
📈 Model Y becomes the best-selling car in America ▲ LONG primary MISS -7.2% -35.1 2024-05-26
🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle ▲ LONG adjacent MISS -5.5% -15.1 2025-03-22
🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced ▲ LONG primary MISS -7.3% -40.4 2024-10-07
🏛️ Patriot Act 2.0 - the foreign-adversary app law becomes a divestiture weapon against domestic platforms ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -4.0% -15.5 2025-03-15
📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40% ▼ SHORT primary PARTIAL +24.3% -3.3 2024-06-24
📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower ▲ LONG primary MISS -17.2% -27.5 2023-08-26

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding TSLA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 35:08
go? It goes up into the cloud and then comes back down into Silicon Valley, polarizing more wealth. And that's where ... I will predict it now, they're going to ban Waymos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E278 · 2026-06-26 ▶ 1:16:34
here's a shipping container that you can just drop on a concrete pad somewhere, plug in the power and let it rip. ... if Tesla can make them available, folks like us for my data center project, we would be enormous buyers of these things ... you have like a 90-day build cycle, which is unheard of.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E277 · 2026-06-19 ▶ 17:42
Now the consolidation phase will begin and we're going to see Tesla and SpaceX merge and it's going to be glorious.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E274 · 2026-05-22 ▶ 59:50
I still don't like the fact that Tesla is over here. And as I told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds... That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E272 · 2026-05-08 ▶ 24:12
When Tesla and SpaceX merge, and we have all things Elon and Elon Corp, which will happen probably by the end of the year, maybe the middle of next year... you'll have this one asset that will trade at a valuation premium... which is logically explainable — everybody else has stopped innovating.
TR Travis Kalanick support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis E269 · 2026-04-17 ▶ 38:22
we should watch for this in the autonomous car space too. Cities may get cute and start doing things like that. And what they did on scooters, they could do on cars. ... New York is literally doing this right now.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E267 · 2026-04-03 ▶ 2:23
gives you a valid mark-to-market assessment of the value of Tesla. And this allows you to put these two things together ... dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E249 · 2025-10-31 ▶ 1:03:43
It's obviously going to happen, but I just get very nervous that the pressure to put these things on the road faster than they're ready is just a little crazy.
EL Elon Musk support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E249 · 2025-10-31 ▶ 1:00:38
All of the cars we make are capable of unsupervised full autonomy... We start production of the CyberCab in Q2 next year... ultimately, we'll make millions of CyberCabs per year... we do expect that the cars will be driving around without any safety monitor before the end of the year, so sometime in December... [with a 100M-vehicle fleet] you'd have 100 gigawatts of inference computer.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab E248 · 2025-10-24 ▶ 51:52
when you buy it today, you're trying to buy what that company is going to look like in 18 months from now. ... printing $3.5 billion a quarter and it's operating margins, ... I read all of those things and I was very bullish. I think that he is humming on all cylinders on the critical layers of the stack that he needs to build this next version of Tesla.
TR Travis Kalanick support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E235 · 2025-07-11 ▶ 7:57
And so those customers are starting to deploy this quarter. And it's pretty interesting. I mean, in our delivery kitchens, the cost of labor is about 30% of revenue. That's what the successful guy, let's say 30%, 35% of revenue. In a brick and mortar restaurant, it's even higher. When they're running our machine, it's between 7% and 10% of revenue.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 1:29:10
For physical AI, they're a kingmaker in parts because they're a sink for demand. So they'll just generate so much demand for robots. So if a figure lands the BMW or the UPS robot successfully, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them. If Optimus lands a successful robot that they tune inside the Tesla factory and then are ready to sell, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 47:31
My number one is build a humanoid robot. Like, how does Apple not have a humanoid robot? That seems like that's obviously the next giant consumer market is having optimists or figure in your house.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 35:23
I think this humanoid robot opportunity is absolutely mind-blowingly ginormous. I don't think that there's a better company on earth positioned to execute against this humanoid robotics opportunity than Tesla.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:25:00
And I'll just say, Elon, amazing, Tesla, incredible, and I would not be sleeping on this company, is what I would say.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 1:28:41
Automation, which is unlocked by AI, we are going to see an explosion of robots. They're not going to all be humanoid robots, but robotics allows humans to get an incredible amount of work done. Imagine having the cost to build a giant building go down by 50x.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:30:50
one of these robotic companies that has zero revenue and wanted a $40 billion valuation, and there's all these civilians, retail investors who are investing in your fund, but also have direct access to these secondary markets, you also have to buy at the right price. These, I know firsthand, for those top companies are massively inflated.
PH Philippe Laffont support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:31:36
Listen, humanoids is a pretty exciting area. I don't know what companies are, but there is going, like, let me, in my top 25, I don't think, I think it's a bit early. I would have a humanoid company.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 1:16:58
there's a lot of videos getting posted on Twitter of FSD being on and then the car drives into the sunlight and at a certain angle, when the sun hits the cameras, the car goes into an emergency disconnect on FSD. I've had that happen. I know it's true. I know it's real. So, it is a bit of a risk with the camera-only mode on how Tesla operates FSD if they can actually run a full, you know, never to disengage RoboTaxi service like Waymo does.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 1:16:21
Oh, yeah. I mean, right now, my car is effectively a robo-taxi. ... That's the worst part about the experience because it is so good.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:41:38
Yeah, we need to get better at this stuff. I mean, the good news is we're going to have robots to do this.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 29:59
And isn't where the puck's going that we're going to have optimist robots, figure robots, pick a robot company doing all this work?
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 33:05
I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 19:41
It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 16:25
The thing that you noticed though is that the actuators are good, they're not great. And so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited. And I think that that doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years.