+23.6
net board stance
what this means
369.1
+4.2% · close 2026-09-08
+12% / -7% / +7%
1m / 3m / 12m
-23%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
37%
of 52w range · -24.7% off high
1/10
hit rate as primary · α -35
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF
— 1 live bullish idea
(+51.8) against 1 bearish
(-28.2). Net them before sizing; don't hold both expressions.
Where we stand — 2 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab | ▲ LONG | primary | 51.8 | +51.8 | — | 226d |
| 🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis | ▼ SHORT | primary | 28.2 | -28.2 | — | 219d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on TSLA
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 2 partial / 7 miss over 10 closed windows — credit 0.2, average α -35.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding TSLA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
go? It goes up into the cloud and then comes back down into Silicon Valley, polarizing more wealth. And that's where ... I will predict it now, they're going to ban Waymos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.
here's a shipping container that you can just drop on a concrete pad somewhere, plug in the power and let it rip. ... if Tesla can make them available, folks like us for my data center project, we would be enormous buyers of these things ... you have like a 90-day build cycle, which is unheard of.
Now the consolidation phase will begin and we're going to see Tesla and SpaceX merge and it's going to be glorious.
I still don't like the fact that Tesla is over here. And as I told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds... That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years.
When Tesla and SpaceX merge, and we have all things Elon and Elon Corp, which will happen probably by the end of the year, maybe the middle of next year... you'll have this one asset that will trade at a valuation premium... which is logically explainable — everybody else has stopped innovating.
TR
Travis Kalanick
support ×2
▼ on
🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis
E269 · 2026-04-17
▶ 38:22
we should watch for this in the autonomous car space too. Cities may get cute and start doing things like that. And what they did on scooters, they could do on cars. ... New York is literally doing this right now.
gives you a valid mark-to-market assessment of the value of Tesla. And this allows you to put these two things together ... dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge.
It's obviously going to happen, but I just get very nervous that the pressure to put these things on the road faster than they're ready is just a little crazy.
EL
Elon Musk
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab
E249 · 2025-10-31
▶ 1:00:38
All of the cars we make are capable of unsupervised full autonomy... We start production of the CyberCab in Q2 next year... ultimately, we'll make millions of CyberCabs per year... we do expect that the cars will be driving around without any safety monitor before the end of the year, so sometime in December... [with a 100M-vehicle fleet] you'd have 100 gigawatts of inference computer.
when you buy it today, you're trying to buy what that company is going to look like in 18 months from now. ... printing $3.5 billion a quarter and it's operating margins, ... I read all of those things and I was very bullish. I think that he is humming on all cylinders on the critical layers of the stack that he needs to build this next version of Tesla.
TR
Travis Kalanick
support ×3
▲ on
🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware
E235 · 2025-07-11
▶ 7:57
And so those customers are starting to deploy this quarter. And it's pretty interesting. I mean, in our delivery kitchens, the cost of labor is about 30% of revenue. That's what the successful guy, let's say 30%, 35% of revenue. In a brick and mortar restaurant, it's even higher. When they're running our machine, it's between 7% and 10% of revenue.
For physical AI, they're a kingmaker in parts because they're a sink for demand. So they'll just generate so much demand for robots. So if a figure lands the BMW or the UPS robot successfully, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them. If Optimus lands a successful robot that they tune inside the Tesla factory and then are ready to sell, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them.
My number one is build a humanoid robot. Like, how does Apple not have a humanoid robot? That seems like that's obviously the next giant consumer market is having optimists or figure in your house.
I think this humanoid robot opportunity is absolutely mind-blowingly ginormous. I don't think that there's a better company on earth positioned to execute against this humanoid robotics opportunity than Tesla.
And I'll just say, Elon, amazing, Tesla, incredible, and I would not be sleeping on this company, is what I would say.
Automation, which is unlocked by AI, we are going to see an explosion of robots. They're not going to all be humanoid robots, but robotics allows humans to get an incredible amount of work done. Imagine having the cost to build a giant building go down by 50x.
one of these robotic companies that has zero revenue and wanted a $40 billion valuation, and there's all these civilians, retail investors who are investing in your fund, but also have direct access to these secondary markets, you also have to buy at the right price. These, I know firsthand, for those top companies are massively inflated.
PH
Philippe Laffont
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware
E227 · 2025-05-09
▶ 1:31:36
Listen, humanoids is a pretty exciting area. I don't know what companies are, but there is going, like, let me, in my top 25, I don't think, I think it's a bit early. I would have a humanoid company.
there's a lot of videos getting posted on Twitter of FSD being on and then the car drives into the sunlight and at a certain angle, when the sun hits the cameras, the car goes into an emergency disconnect on FSD. I've had that happen. I know it's true. I know it's real. So, it is a bit of a risk with the camera-only mode on how Tesla operates FSD if they can actually run a full, you know, never to disengage RoboTaxi service like Waymo does.
Oh, yeah. I mean, right now, my car is effectively a robo-taxi. ... That's the worst part about the experience because it is so good.
Yeah, we need to get better at this stuff. I mean, the good news is we're going to have robots to do this.
And isn't where the puck's going that we're going to have optimist robots, figure robots, pick a robot company doing all this work?
I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.
It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.
The thing that you noticed though is that the actuators are good, they're not great. And so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited. And I think that that doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years.