+0.0
net board stance
what this means
515.42
+0.1% · close 2026-09-08
-9% / -6% / -10%
1m / 3m / 12m
-76%
vs SPY since 2023-02-11
8%
of 52w range · -32.3% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
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Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 44 EPISODES —
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PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
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Track record on NOC
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| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +8.2% | -15.0 | 2024-02-11 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding NOC, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And when it does happen, you get this lunatic fringe who unfortunately are some of the leaders of the Republican Party calling for a larger war against Iran.
The majority of people don't want to be involved in foreign wars. That's across both parties.
I can't imagine anybody would want to do more military action at this point in time when the American public is exhausted from it.
The problem is that with every war, the mainstream media starts propagandizing for the wars, and they'll basically demonize whoever it is that we're going to go to war with and explaining why they're a huge threat. They'll engage in threat inflation, and so the American people end up supporting it.
Will policymakers in Washington change their tune or change their perspective on this? Probably not, the uniparty of both Republicans and Democrats are still seems to be a majority who want to fund another 61 billion for Ukraine.
I've shared my point of view for a couple of years now. I think the US is in a, call it subconscious conflict escalatory state that would continue to drive us into these sorts of conflict
there's significant material and industrial production shortages, not just in the US, but around the world, to support rising conventional wars that seem to be scaling all over
our industrial capacity is so hollowed out that it's going to take us five plus years to replace our stockpiles of artillery ammunition, of javelins, of stingers
That artillery stockpile was basically taken and given to Ukraine. Remember, we ran out of the key type of ammunition in the Ukraine War, which is 155-millimeter artillery shells. That's why we gave them cluster bombs. The US is already dangerously low on ammunition, and that's before we get potentially another war or another front in this larger global conflagration that's happening.
And I think there is growing opposition to a blank check as long as it takes policy towards Ukraine. We've already appropriated over 100 billion. What's the return on investment of that? The counteroffensive failed.
From 2015 to 2021, we could have gone along with efforts under the Minsk Accords to resolve this conflict in the Donbass peacefully, but we never did that. We never gave it any support.
both Republicans and Democrats want more military spending. I don't hear anybody really argue for cutting military spending ... but the Democrats are completely on board with war now
And the people who are attacking him now are all these neocons. It's basically the whole military industrial complex. It's all the bought and paid for politicians and think tanks who want America to be in these forever wars. So I think he's being attacked by the right people, and that's going to help him.
It's a combination of being trapped in legacy thinking where we have to be the policemen of the world combined with all the big donors in the party, many of whom are wrapped up with the military industrial complex, want to contribute to that.
I do think that the solution is 10 more Palmer Luckeys. I mean, I think the Silicon Valley's anti-supporting the military is a crazy position that needs to change and we should make more weapons and have VC-backed companies making weapon systems
it's obviously going to require a significant influx of capital by some estimates up to $2 trillion to increase the security capacity of NATO
Now, you know who it's an asset for is the military industrial complex, because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend 2% of their GDP on defense.
And I think you could see now over the next few months a full mobilization in Russia.
And I've yet to meet a single parent who said to me, I care so much about this Ukraine situation, I would be willing to put my children in harm's way to fight for the defense of Europe. Okay, so those data points tell me at a very minimum, we need more of this discussion, more of this debate, not less.
we have created a very dangerous revolving door between our most critical institutions and the largest industrial companies in the United States. And that revolving door creates all kinds of conflicts of interest. And those things get sorted out via revenue and dollars and profits.
So we are out of 155-millimeter artillery shells. We cannot produce enough. This is the crazy thing. We spent $800 billion a year plus on the Pentagon and our national defense. We're out of ammo. I mean, we must be getting so royally ripped off by the military industrial complex.
I don't think it's contained. It's escalating. And as of yesterday, there seems to be some conflagration between Kosovo and Serbia. That's kicking up. So all of a sudden, we're talking about a totally different European land war.
That war seems to be contained. I'll be more worried about the relationship with China.
Especially if the Ukraine war is still going on because we're that close to being in a direct shooting war with Russia, which could lead to a nuclear war.
This is Biden's signature legislation is creating energy independence for America, which will have an enormous peace dividend. You will not fight these stupid endless wars.