State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF

the Fed did something that I thought was very clever. They basically said, we're not going to cut just to bail out the equity market. But if the market's liquidity is no longer functioning, emphasis on liquidity, then we'll step in to restore liquidity.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 19:47

What I'm saying very directly is that the Fed is acting in a manner that is as much politically motivated as financially metric motivated, because the financial metrics, some of the most critical leading indicators, particularly around liquidity and the credit health of the American consumer, are blinking yellow. So right now, they are choosing to ignore these historically useful leading indicators. And the only reason that I can come up with to ignore it are political reasons.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 54:04

And if you remember the interview that Besant gave to us a couple weeks ago, he was very clear that one of his mandates is to enable the re-leveraging of the financial system. Meaning he wants to give banks the ability to issue more debt, to introduce more capital and more liquidity into the markets by taking away some of the regulatory restrictions that have made it more difficult for the banks to issue credit to business owners and to individuals. So if they are successful in their deregulatory efforts, it will introduce more liquidity into the market

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:10:13

So in an extremely difficult, confusing storm, what is the best thing to do when you're driving the storm is just maybe try to keep the car going straight, not hit the brakes or not hit the gas. And that's what they're doing. They're taking a wait and see.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:11:09

Again, there was a really interesting anecdote where Bessent talked in the interview about how he really wants to deregulate and loosen up bank lending standards, particularly at the community level. And I think that this is one very interesting thing that is a workaround to the Fed.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 35:43

Well, book value is a term that you need to put in quotes. So my question would be, what are the rules around the real mark to market? Because I think that when we talked about the banking crisis, the biggest problem was these guys were playing fast and loose with valuations.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:08:15

major US banks are facing large unrealized losses. Bank of America had unrealized losses of $131 billion on securities in Q3

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity E132 · 2023-06-10 ▶ 1:10:45

First Republic and others have now proclaimed that they're going to start charging a lot more service fees to hold your money and they're going to start taking a lot less risk. So we're already headed in that direction.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E131 · 2023-06-02 ▶ 22:56

I mean, if you saw what happened around the whole banking crisis that I think is still going on in slow motion, I mean, the amount of animosity both towards the banks that went under and the idea of potentially bailing them out, and then also the animosity towards JP Morgan when it actually bought First Republic.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E128 · 2023-05-12 ▶ 37:49

And if that happens, they'll continue to be incredible stress on the banking system and more banks are going to break.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E123 · 2023-04-07 ▶ 27:26

One was these long dated bonds having unrealized losses, which is causing problems in regional community banks. The second piece of it is the commercial real estate crisis, which I think is metastasizing right now, which is also going to be a banking crisis once all those unrealized losses come due.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 1:15:18

If you look at how well run Citi, B of A, Wells and JPMR relative and contrast them to the sub GSIBs, it's like night and day.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 1:13:54

Make it abundantly clear that we're never going to insure 100% and deal with that risk, or make it 100% and deal with the fallout, which is largely about wiping out a lot of equity value in banks.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 1:05:45

And so the irony is if you actually did, and this is getting super technical, but if you actually looked at the statistical model and said, how much is this going to cost to insure every deposit? It gets much, much cheaper the higher the deposits that you're willing to insure would be.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 58:35

If you were to now additionally cover the whole thing, all the deposits, it would be another roughly 100 billion of premiums paid by these banks. That seems very manageable to me, actually.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 15:33

The banks are saying we don't have enough liquidity right now to cover our needs, which are highly volatile right now because basically depositors are moving out of community and regional and small banks into the big four so-called systemically important or CIP banks.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E120 · 2023-03-17 ▶ 27:40

Because if it's two trillion for everybody else but the top four, what's the gap for the top four? That looks like it's somewhere between a trillion and two trillion.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E120 · 2023-03-17 ▶ 18:36

However, it has also now, I think, created a situation where people are less confident about them. And so the money flows are going from the regional banks to the systemically important banks, the SIBs.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 1:20:38

And I think what we know and what we're seeing is the next dominoes are already falling.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 43:54

Because then you will see a lot of people trying to move money away from any institution that stores their money in some sort of security that's not 100% liquid like cash. And that's going to cause a massive run.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 1:23:14

Folks, when you look at the equity tier of these regional banks, people are liquidating the equity tier because they know that that is the first domino to fall if banks go into receivership. Please act accordingly. You can see it in the ETFs. You can see it in the trade flows. This is not a Silicon Valley problem anymore.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 53:23

So I think there's a chance that if the federal government doesn't step in here, the whole regional banking system could be decimated, and you're just going to be left with four too big to fail banks.