📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E64 (2022-01-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 55:51 SUPPORT

“We're in the eighth, in my opinion, I think we're in the eighth inning of the tech drawdown. So if you're a high growth tech company, you've been smashed for three months in a row. ... When you see this thing really get cracked is when those folks trade down another 10% or 15%. And then I think we're kind of through most of the pain.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 40:19 SUPPORT

“if you go back to the, you know, from 1950 onwards today, every time the government has started to raise rates or the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates, the stock markets have actually rallied. Now, why is that? It's typically that they see through the end of the rate hike cycle, and they start to price the business as if these rate hikes are done and to rebase things. And on average, I think the stock markets go up between 7 and 8 percent.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:46 OPPOSE

“these market levels that we're at right now, we look 60% correction in growth stocks. But this is with that still in a good economy in peacetime conditions. And now we have a risk of recession and war. So, you know, there's still room for, you know, a lot more negative news here is kind of my point.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E67 (2022-02-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 58:58 SUPPORT

“what you saw over this past week is the bottoming out of a lot of these growth stocks that were beaten up, right? They rallied pretty significantly every day, three, four, five, six percent rallies. ... other names in big tech have rallied really well, including Microsoft.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E68 (2022-02-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:05 SUPPORT

“In the.com bubble, it took somewhere between three to five years for most stocks to bottom. ... So it took three to five years to go basically minus 80%. We did that in three months, you know, maybe four months. And so the markets have become a lot more efficient over time. So now that we have that reset, it's pretty natural that there's going to be a very quick reset on the private market side.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E70 (2022-02-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 54:03 SUPPORT

“think that the bottom in the S&P is around $3,800 and that what we still need to do is this one last flush and that last flush will really touch the big cap companies, but that growth is largely done sort of getting taken to the woodshed. So in general, I think that so generally buyers of growth now, sellers of value and waiting for this one last, you know, 400 point move down the S&P and I think people think it's roughly the bottom.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E70 (2022-02-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:05 SUPPORT

“And as of I would say last week, it was right at about the historical trend, and now it's starting to go under the historical trends. So from a bargain hunting standpoint, you'd have to say that this is the first time that we've been below the average for a few years. ... But if this conflict can stay localized and the economy doesn't go into a recession because of everything that's happened, then yes, this might be bargain hunting.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E70 (2022-02-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:44 SUPPORT

“It feels to me like huge setup right now. People have capitulated. The markets gotten demolished. I just think these companies are still great. Like Zoom is still a great company.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E70 (2022-02-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:16 SUPPORT

“Things are relatively cheap relative to a time horizon that Sacks pointed out and Gertzner pointed out. So things are relatively cheap. Find businesses you like to own and buy them cheap.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:42 SUPPORT

“I actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news. And we're so negative, and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to keep moving forward. ... But I think that there's a lot of good news out there.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:32 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“Well, I think that we're in the midst of what I would call a meltup. So, you know, probably the next month, month and a half, there really isn't much, quote unquote, bad news that hasn't been priced in. ... So where are we going from here? Probably up.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E73 (2022-03-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 7:23 SUPPORT

“I think the markets are mostly moving upwards for the short term and then I think volatility is going to come back. I'm just trying to find good long-term businesses and just kind of close my eyes and not have to look at these stock prices every day.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E73 (2022-03-26) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 49:51 OPPOSE

“for us in moments like this, and I've lived probably through five of them in the public markets, we always do the same thing. Degross, take risk down. First thing is like have less chits on the board. Number two, reduce the number of outliers. Pull in the risk curve, right? For me, I want to own five or six things, because remember, I'm the biggest LP in the fund.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E75 (2022-04-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:14 REVERSAL

“until the Fed see that there's a massive trading of liquidity, which means like you see these indices crack big time, 35, 3600 in the S&P, they're just going to keep ratcheting things up. As it comes all the way down to our companies in Silicon Valley and tech, what that means is like you have to start planning for the worst.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E78 (2022-04-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 40:17 SUPPORT

“to be bearish right now is effectively not being bearish these growth stocks, because as we said, they've been just decimated. At this point, to be bearish, the indices means very specifically to be bearish. Those four names and only those four names. ... And so that may actually mean that the market has effectively crashed already.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E78 (2022-04-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 41:33 SUPPORT

“I'm not necessarily bearish on growth stocks from here, because like you said, they've already been beat up so badly. The stock market is usually a leading indicator. What I'm a bearish about is just the state of the economy, because the stock market is traded down on expectations.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E80 (2022-05-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:36:00 SUPPORT

“I actually think we're probably close to a near bottom-ish here, 3,800-ish in the S&P 500 ... You're actually starting to see some of these early green shoots of a market bottom. What are those? It's when the most heavily shorted stocks start to rip up”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E80 (2022-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:37:05 OPPOSE

“Look, the market is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator. And so, it adjusts first and then the real economy adjusts after that. And the risk right now is the stock market is telling us something about where the real economy is headed.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E80 (2022-05-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:29:00 OPPOSE

“we've got several multiples still to go with respect to volume that needs to trade before you find what the true market bottom is.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E81 (2022-05-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 48:01 OPPOSE · horizon 12mo

“We will be higher for growth stocks this time next year. But we may very well get there by way of lower and potentially meaningfully lower.”

Bill Gurley (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.11 · n=9 · E81 (2022-05-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 49:36 SUPPORT

“I'm very excited about public stocks here, actually. ... Yeah. Like the valuations are getting super interesting.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E84 (2022-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:54 REVERSAL

“we're at the beginning of the beginning. Again, we're at the beginning of the beginning. Okay, for all of us that lived through the 2000, this was four years of sheer hell and a grind. ... people all of a sudden assume that two or three rate hikes and five or six months of headlines are enough.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E85 (2022-06-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:04:23 REVERSAL

“You used this term, Jason, before like skipping along the bottom. ... I just think it's like psychological wishful thinking as opposed to sort of like a rational summation of the actual.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E85 (2022-06-30) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 34:14 SUPPORT

“One thing that I thought was an interesting sign of potentially bouncing along the bottom.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E85 (2022-06-30) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:52 SUPPORT

“I am looking at buying high quality share businesses, buying shares of high quality businesses right now. I think that there are things that are cheaply priced.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E86 (2022-07-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 30:34 REVERSAL

“And this is why I think we're in this first inning of this. So I don't know whether Ackman is right or wrong. But I think we're in the early phases of a two phase recession. ... But now the second shoe has to drop, which is if you believe that after this supply side issues are resolved, you go through a demand destruction phase, the earnings of these companies are in real trouble.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E87 (2022-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:32 REVERSAL

“So they don't necessarily have to buy at any point. They just need to make money in the end. So right now we're in a situation where the markets are looking for a direction. Retail seems to think that direction should be up. Hedge funds don't have an opinion or saying, we're just going to wait this thing out.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E87 (2022-07-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:51 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“So, you know, my very, very, very anecdotal experience has been that significant market participants I think are going to start to perk their head up this quarter and start to think about doing new things.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E88 (2022-07-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:31:07 REVERSAL

“But if you look at the public markets, which is again the ultimate terminal buyer, they have more cash than they ever had since 2008, which means that there is no reason to buy.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E90 (2022-08-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:00 REVERSAL

“So there you have it. I really don't know what's going to happen from here, but I tend to think things still have to get a lot worse to flush everything through the system.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E90 (2022-08-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 23:01 OPPOSE

“What it basically shows is that during protracted bear markets, you can still get substantial bear market rallies. And so during the 20002001.com crash, you had these plus 32%, plus 41%, plus 45% rallies, but even while the market as a whole was going down. And so they ended up being sort of sucker rallies. Now, I don't know if that is what's happening here, but it is a possibility.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E90 (2022-08-05) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 16:57 SUPPORT

“You may have called the bottom here on the program a couple of months ago, and I started J trading three weeks ago based on our discussions here thinking we're bouncing along the bottom.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E97 (2022-09-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:30 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“But the silver lining is I think that we are starting a bottoming process for the equity markets. And I think that by the end of this year or the early part of next year, most of that will be done.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:16:18 SUPPORT

“Well, we talked about this a few weeks ago, but my thought then, and it's the same that I think now, is that we've effectively seen the near-term bottom and we're now consolidating.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E100 (2022-10-14) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:21:35 SUPPORT

“It does feel like that those are the last cities to fall, Chamath.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E101 (2022-10-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 37:56 SUPPORT

“As I sit here today, yes, we're going to have harder times ahead economically, but it feels to me like a lot of it is priced in. I don't think we have huge asymmetry and skew to the downside. I think that's like fighting the last battle.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E102 (2022-10-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:03:13 SUPPORT

“And, you know, we always said the market bottom will be when the generals, quote unquote, get shot, you know, to borrow a phrase from Gavin Baker. And it looks like the generals have been shot.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E103 (2022-11-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 32:23 REVERSAL · horizon 24mo

“So like, you know, for me, I'm like, wow, I thought that we could get through the worst of this by mid 23 But now you have to plan for the worst, which means, OK, now I'm thinking that, man, rates could be higher for much longer, which means, you know, we could be in this market till early 25”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E105 (2022-11-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:41:37 SUPPORT

“We just weren't as efficient as we needed to be in running these companies. And now we're in the age of efficiency, austerity, excellence. But it also comes to this great setup for a rebound, isn't it?”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E109 (2022-12-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:44:05 REVERSAL

“I have been guiding our portfolio company CEOs to be at cash flow break even now or extend runway to Q1 2025”