🏦 Inflation may not show up — breakevens are rolling over

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:16 SUPPORT

“One last thing for you guys, on a market check, my 10-year break evens, remember, we're now down to 242 It's been 18 days. ... My little inflation check, my little inflation check. And it seems like things are trending in the right direction.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:07 SUPPORT

“Well, I think what happened, Chamath, is you put it well, I think a couple of pods ago, the market sent a signal to Biden that, look, this is too much taxing, too much spending. It's too inflationary. ... So I think there's less inflationary pressure coming out of Washington, hopefully.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E40 (2021-07-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 25:40 SUPPORT

“We were afraid of inflation. Lumber prices today, by the way, are lower than they were when this whole kind of inflationary thing started and everyone was freaking out about it. So, you know, lumber prices are lower than they were at the start of the year, which is, you know, like a lot of this kind of inflation risk has kind of come out of the equation already. So, the markets have taken that pricing out.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 34:44 REVERSAL

“The thing that I have struggled with the most in these last few weeks is trying to come to a conclusion on inflation. My worry is that it's here and it will be persistent. ... And so I think what we've created is a really distortive inflationary cycle that's going to really hurt the United States because as Sacks talked about, we cannot print enough money to pay for the debt when interest rates go up.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 8:59 REVERSAL

“We have inflation at a 30 year high. We have 10 year break evens at a 25 year high. ... So I think that it's a it's this is the beginning of a persistence.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E57 (2021-12-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:42 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I just sent you a link to freight rates for cargo ships coming from China to LA. ... It's dropped by 50% and it's continuing to drop week after week right now. And we're seeing the same in lumber prices right now. ... these pricing issues that we've been seeing in the recent term may in fact still be transitory. We may see them work their way out at the end of 2022 And we're starting to see the early signs of that actually playing out.”

Jason rates w=0.86 · n=7 · E57 (2021-12-04) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 42:17 SUPPORT

“But competition does seem to drive prices lower. And so if we do see more people participating as employees or employment, well, then there'd be some competition for less competition for labor. And we might see more competition in other places in the economy.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E58 (2021-12-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 46:51 SUPPORT

“I want to remind you about the deflationary effect of technology, and it is really being felt in the economy.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E62 (2022-01-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:14 SUPPORT

“the volatility in the 10-year yield is slowing way down. And if that continues to hold, that means that people are really saying there's a small amount of real inflation, a reasonable amount of transitory inflation, and we're about to kind of wash most of it through the system with 100 basis points of rate hikes.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E64 (2022-01-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:54 SUPPORT

“the leading indicators all around the world tell us that their economies are weak, then inflation may have actually been much more transitory than we thought”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E67 (2022-02-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 56:33 SUPPORT

“one of the most interesting things is the rate of change of this inflation was actually lower month over month. And so if you think about it that way, we had a bad CPI print, but it's actually not going up as much. And in fact, it's starting to trail off and a lot of economists now forecast basically this inflation peaking or already having peaked over the last few weeks.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:32 SUPPORT · horizon 9mo

“And what people realized was, okay, you know, inflation may actually start to get tamed in the back half of the year.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 2 resolved, unproven · E73 (2022-03-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:06 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“PMI in January came in at 0.2 versus the consensus estimate of 0.6. That means the producer level of inflation was meaningfully less than we expected. ... That's why I think there's also a probability by the middle of the summer, the Fed in the United States is saying we now see a balanced risk between growth and inflation.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E73 (2022-03-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:23 SUPPORT

“Now, here we are again. We're worried about this inflationary boogeyman. And the Chinese government basically extended these tax cuts, increased the tax cuts, and essentially said we're going to be very stimulative in the economy, especially through the back half of the year.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:52 OPPOSE

“One thing I'll say about inflation, let's say you're running a company and you raise your prices, you're not often going back and dropping your prices again. ... consumables, durables typically stay high after they inflate. You end up having this persisting effect and it's really hard to just grow your way out of that without stimulus.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:26 OPPOSE · horizon 24mo

“Technology does cause deflation. It's deflationary. But this is not going to help us get out of what's coming over the next year or two.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E74 (2022-04-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 20:52 SUPPORT

“And incrementally, especially if you use technology, those things tend to be deflationary, so they do get cheaper. ... So you have this deflationary, natural deflationary effect where you tend to save money on the things you used to pay for”

Brian Armstrong (guest ×0.5) no rates track record · E77 (2022-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 48:15 OPPOSE

“because, frankly, you know, the dollar is seeing a lot of inflation. You guys have talked about it many times on this show. So do you really want to have a stable, quote, stable coin that is inflating 8% a year? ... they're basically looking at the consumer price index and they're trying to basically have flat purchasing power and assume that the dollar and various fiat currencies around the world are actually going to go through more inflation.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E80 (2022-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 7:17 REVERSAL

“Meanwhile, we're waiting for CPI to downtick inflation hasn't really done that.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E80 (2022-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:37:05 REVERSAL

“Larry Summers told him it would lead to inflation. Nobody, I know no one wants to listen to Larry Summers. He's like one of those guys you never want to admit is correct. But Larry Summers was correct.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 2 resolved, unproven · E81 (2022-05-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 7:22 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“You tell me, is the price of the used car this time next year higher than 29 or lower than 29? It's going to be lower because we're destroying demand by raising interest rates. ... That and consumer confidence tells me forward looking inflation is rolling.”