🪙 Solana's post-FTX recovery runs - the besties are still holding
Sacks names Solana the turnaround of 2023 (roughly $9 to $92 a token) and discloses that he and others on the pod never sold through the FTX-contagion drawdown and are still holding size. The positioning disclosure is the signal: the asset that was written off as an FTX-adjacent zombie is being held, not distributed, into 2024.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 33.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG cg:solana
expression · bullish crypto
HIT
outcome · R +78.5% · α +51.7%
2024-12-29
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG cg:solana (primary play). cg:solana rose 78.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +78.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.8% → α = +78.5 − (+26.8) = +51.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 78.5, α 51.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-29)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | cg:solana | crypto | PRIMARY | the asset itself - the disclosed bag |
| ▲ LONG | COIN | stock | adjacent | listed US exchange with equity beta to an alt-L1 rally and SOL trading volume |
Mention log
Sacks
crypto w=1.11 · n=18
· E172 (2024-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 4:28
SUPPORT
“He made a seed investment in Solana that I think is worth billions now, especially now that Solana has recovered. ... I think that Solana was hard with the brush of being a Sam coin because SBF invested in it, but as it turns out, as far as we know, it's a completely legitimate developer project.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -38.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E159 2023-12-29 | init | +33.3 | 33.3 | E159 born by Sacks (positioning x2) [w=1.11] |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.9 | 20.4 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | reinforce | +13.3 | 33.7 | E172 Sacks support x2 [w=1.11] |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E208 silent |