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🪙 Solana's post-FTX recovery runs - the besties are still holding

Sacks names Solana the turnaround of 2023 (roughly $9 to $92 a token) and discloses that he and others on the pod never sold through the FTX-contagion drawdown and are still holding size. The positioning disclosure is the signal: the asset that was written off as an FTX-adjacent zombie is being held, not distributed, into 2024.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 30.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG cg:solana
expression · bullish crypto
RIGHT
result · return +78.5% · vs SPY +51.7%
2024-12-29
born 2023-12-29 (E159) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
COIN · OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk SHORT EMBER 17.0 ← stronger than this idea (7.0)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG cg:solana (primary play). cg:solana rose 78.5% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +78.5% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.8% → vs SPY = +78.5 − (+26.8) = +51.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 78.5, vs SPY 51.7)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Sacks

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-29)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG cg:solanacrypto PRIMARY the asset itself - the disclosed bag
▲ LONG COINstock adjacent listed US exchange with equity beta to an alt-L1 rally and SOL trading volume

Mention log newest first

Sacks
Sacks crypto 58% · n=18 · E172 (2024-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 4:28 SUPPORT
“He made a seed investment in Solana that I think is worth billions now, especially now that Solana has recovered. ... I think that Solana was hard with the brush of being a Sam coin because SBF invested in it, but as it turns out, as far as we know, it's a completely legitimate developer project.”
Sacks
Sacks crypto 58% · n=18 · E159 (2023-12-29) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 48:10 SUPPORT
“let's just say that those of us who are still holding bags of Solana are very happy campers right now.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks 58%
2 scoring events · 100% of moves
+42.2 → net +42.2

⏳ decay drained -35.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E159 2023-12-29 init +30.0 30.0 E159 born by Sacks (positioning x2)
E160 2024-01-06 decay -1.2 28.8 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -1.2 27.6 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -1.1 26.5 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -1.1 25.5 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -1.0 24.5 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -1.0 23.5 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -0.9 22.5 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -0.9 21.6 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -0.9 20.8 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -0.8 19.9 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -0.8 19.1 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -0.8 18.4 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 reinforce +12.2 30.6 E172 Sacks support x2
E173 2024-04-05 decay -1.2 29.4 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -1.2 28.2 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -1.1 27.1 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -1.1 26.0 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -1.0 25.0 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -1.0 24.0 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -1.0 23.0 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -0.9 22.1 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -0.9 21.2 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.8 20.4 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -0.8 19.5 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -0.8 18.8 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay -0.8 18.0 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay -0.7 17.3 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 decay -0.7 16.6 E187 silent
E188 2024-07-19 decay -0.7 15.9 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 decay -0.6 15.3 E189 silent
E190 2024-08-02 decay -0.6 14.7 E190 silent
E191 2024-08-09 decay -0.6 14.1 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -0.6 13.5 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -0.5 13.0 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -0.5 12.5 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -0.5 12.0 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -0.5 11.5 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -0.5 11.0 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.4 10.6 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.4 10.2 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay -0.4 9.8 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.4 9.4 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.4 9.0 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.4 8.6 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.3 8.3 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.3 8.0 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.3 7.6 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -0.3 7.3 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -0.3 7.0 E208 silent