Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 10:57

Gold is going to go up more probably

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 41:06

my personal position on this going into this new era, if it manifests as the markets are telling us it will, is kind of where Paul Tudor Jones is

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 40:54

If you look at commodities as a different example, Nick, I sent you this, commodities are up, broadly speaking, 30% since the beginning of the year

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 1:12:21

Cocoa has moved in price from about 2000 bucks a ton, which is where it normally trades at, to $10,000 a ton. ... They're talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars, raising prices, and starting to use other ingredients. You'll start to see that happen in the shelves in the next couple of months. But this is the big news in the commodity markets right now, is this parabolic spike in cocoa prices.

Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:23:37

China has 50 million homes ahead of schedule. 50 million additional supply that can house 150 million people. So as acute as our issues are, the China issue might be much, much seismic.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand E163 · 2024-01-26 ▶ 5:50

You also have what looks like a crash happening in China. The Chinese government took some actions to prop up the stock market there, which is a pretty negative signal.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 E160 · 2024-01-06 ▶ 20:36

There's a big commodities boom that's coming back in 2024... a lot of underinvestment relative to demand over the past 18 to 24 months... rebuilding stockpiles and supplies... commodities businesses are going to see a killer 2024.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand E141 · 2023-08-11 ▶ 1:30:21

And China just saw CPI down three-tenths of one percent in the month this week. Annualized, that's over three and a half percent. That is a major problem for China. So I think you have some yellow flags here, right? That say, do we have too much tightening? If one of the global engines of growth is experiencing this level of disinflation, that's going to impact the global economy, global demand, et cetera.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 21:30

No. And the other thing, in fact, it's the opposite. ... What I can tell you is I think that prices are too high in certain core commodities and goods. I think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:11:56

Today, corn, I think, is trading at $7.60 a bushel. That hasn't happened, guys. I can't tell you in how long. This was a commodity that was trading at $3.50 a few months ago. ... The trickle-down effect, as we're already seeing in California, or San Francisco, with the average price per gallon of gas at over $5. The trickle-down effect on purchasing behavior, on businesses defaulting because suddenly their counterparties dry up.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E67 · 2022-02-12 ▶ 1:03:46

there was a really interesting chart on inflation that actually Zero Hedge tweeted. And I threw it up in the notes here where they said real hourly earnings are negative 1.7 percent. It's the 10th month in a row where US incomes aren't keeping up with inflation. ... Actually, as it turns out, it boosted inflation so much that people are feeling worse off, even though their wages went up slightly, because on a net basis, their earnings are down. So I just think it's a good reminder that you can't just like print wealth. You can't print your way to prosperity.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 44:31

But David is saying something really important. The risk, in my opinion, is not of runaway inflation anymore. And the reason was what happened this weekend was incredibly important.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 43:04

But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 33:22

The Fed prints money, the government prints $100, takes that $100, steps into the market, and takes something from you, in this case, it's a bond, and gives you that freshly printed $100. What are you going to do? Well, you're probably going to go and spend that, you're going to buy other things. And that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates. ... when we're printing six, seven, eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 31:38

this BBB bill was particularly anachronistic once the 6.8%, you know, inflation print came out. In other words, we're in a hyperinflationary environment and here comes this bill that the CBO says if, you know, over 10 years would cost $5 trillion, that's the last thing we need is more money printing when, you know, we've got this inflationary fire out of control.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 17:37

We're seeing asset bubbles everywhere in NFTs, in crypto, in startups, in new startups, in new ideas. ... And as a result, we're kind of seeing this inflationary pressure persist.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 13:58

CPI is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise ... the largest owners of nationwide single-family rentals are reporting a 17% year-over-year rent increase ... it means that core CPI actually went from 4.9% today to actually 9%. And the CPI print, which was 6.8%, was actually 10.1%.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 9:04

it's definitely not transitory ... Then it went to 6.2. Now it's 6.8. Looks like it's headed to 7%. ... these guys are continuing to pump more and more stimulus into an economy that has enough

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 40:44

the government changed their formula for what is considered a conforming mortgage. I think it kicks in in January and essentially it basically allows US homeowners to have a million dollar mortgage and have it essentially be conforming. ... So worse terms become better terms. You have more equity. You can pull out more money. I think that people will spend that money. And so even on the consumer side, I think that you have an impetus to spend.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 35:23

we are moving the world back into a more, you know, decentralized place, right? The centralization was this just-in-time, you know, single supply chain, single point of failure existence. ... the solution to fixing the core structural inflation we have is going to take a decade. ... Inflation is now here. I think it's here to last. I've been pretty consistent about this. ... And this is the real reason why we're going to have a few years of pain. ... Structural inflation is here. We've under invested under invested at the macro level, and we've completely distorted people's incentives to work at the micro level.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E56 · 2021-11-20 ▶ 53:05

the primary reason for the increase in education costs because the government funds all the student loans, the increase in health care, the increase in defense, all of it is because the government is the customer and they tell the person that's servicing them upfront, they tell the market what they're willing to pay. And so the market just inflates to that amount.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 47:51

Yeah, I made one in January that said the same thing. ... So it's very likely that, you know, tax revenue could kind of present itself again as a driver if inflation continues to spiral up.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 45:11

The thing I'm seeing now is I think we've moved into what I'll call a contagion phase of inflation, which is people are hearing about inflation. They're seeing it. ... They're just saying, everything's going up around me. And so they raise prices.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 50:15

Inflation is very simple. It's too much money chasing too few goods. And we have both sides of the equation going on right now. ... You've got this massive expansion in the amount of money. Look, too much money chasing too few goods creates this problem. It was very predictable. What I said back in May, this is what I was warning about.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 42:54

I think it's persistent. And the reason I think it's persistent is that all of these things are intertwined. ... Fertilizer makes corn more expensive. Lumber makes house prices more expensive. Chip prices makes the iPhone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged. ... If you go back to the original measurement, it looks like inflation in CPI is much more pernicious than we would otherwise think if we just look at the new CPI that we started to look at as of 1980