-19.8
net board stance
what this means
61.62
-0.0% · close 2026-11-06
-3% / +8% / +44%
1m / 3m / 12m
+30%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
69%
of 52w range · -12.0% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +13
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 39.5 | -19.8 | — | 64d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on XLE
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.5, average vs SPY +12.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding XLE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
The price of Brent crude will drop precipitously. On the day of the election, the price of Brent crude dropped 10%. Is that because something changed in the straight-of-the-move? No. It's because the market started to price in the mere possibility that the war would end sooner. We got a 10% cut in the price of Brent crude. It will go from, it's been as high as 117, it'll go from 110 to 70
And I think that people are sleeping on the fact that we are not nearly as dependent on oil the way that we used to be. And so even though we used to breathlessly look at Brent crude and WTI and all this stuff, I don't think it matters nearly as much as it used to.
China has been smoothing the energy consumption globally ... we've kind of kept a damper on $200 a barrel oil. In fact, we're sub $100. ... If China somehow runs out of reserves and they need to go back into the spot market and buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.
The market literally took oil from $120 a barrel to $90 a barrel, almost in, ... there is no path to a sustained conflict. ... a coordinated release of about 400 million barrels
My suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration... The United States produces 20 million barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 million barrels a day. This is a modest problem for the United States.
the trend in oil is inexorable, and it's down. ... on a per-barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.
It double and triples down the ability to monetize oil and start to invest those returns in future projects that have a much better ROI. All of that leads to cheaper energy.
I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA. And I think that they've taken their first shot and I don't think it's their last.
President Trump accomplished that. We're not in a forever war. We're not in a war with Iran.
I mean, you could see oil double, double. What happens to the economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything, of inflation. If you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a barrel, it's not good.
Their conventional weapons are fearsome and could do great damage to our allies, to Israel and to American assets in that area and also to energy production in countries that we rely on. So I think the downsides are really kind of overwhelming. I think a protracted, meaning anything over a day or two engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the presidency.
This bill passed by one vote margin. It was hanging on by a thread. And if it failed, you get basically hundreds of billions of tax increases, which we don't need right now.
This past week, Besson said that the tax bill will allow you to fully deduct all the PPE and all of the incidental costs of building a factory... The point is, that thing would create an absolute economic bonanza if it were to get passed.
But I do think that this sets us up for a Trump boom in the future. It's just that a lot of these changes take time to play out.
Well, I think the proposal that I've heard from this administration that we heard from Howard Lutnick when we met with him was they're going to cut all taxes for people making less than $150,000 a year, so get the tax rate to zero.
One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good. So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.
And by the way, that language about dominating AI and winning the global race, that is in President Trump's executive order from week one. So this is very much elaborating on the official policy of this administration.
So the number one thing that that EO does is rescind the Biden EO, which we talked about in this podcast, I don't know how many episodes ago, but you remember it was this 100-page monstrosity of burdensome regulation.
And what I saw was a very broad-based embrace of business people, because I think that the president understands how important it is to make sure that economically, America is just firing on all cylinders.
there's actually this total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs.
I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.
I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained
So I just think deregulation and simplifying regulations and the tax code is going to lead to an immense amount of growth
I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen.
Look, if the federal budget gets to $3 trillion and regulation gets cut, if you get 50% of the regulations in federal agencies cut, I think you unleash an economic sonic boom. I'm all in on DOGE.