XLE

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF

etf all instruments
-19.8
net board stance what this means
61.62
-0.0% · close 2026-11-06
-3% / +8% / +44%
1m / 3m / 12m
+30%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
69%
of 52w range · -12.0% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +13

Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 ▼ SHORT adjacent ×0.5 39.5 -19.8 — 64d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Friedberg
Friedberg 39% energy
9 ideas (0 live) · last heard E233
+23
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks 47% energy
11 ideas (1 live) · last heard E296
+13
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath 27% energy
11 ideas (1 live) · last heard E291
+5
pushes up
Jason
Jason 50% energy
4 ideas (0 live) · last heard E205
+4
pushes up
Donald Trump
Donald Trump guest ×0.5
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E184
+4
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 80% politics-market guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E221
+2
pushes up
Joe Lonsdale
Joe Lonsdale 50% politics-market guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E206
+2
pushes up
Aaron Levie
Aaron Levie guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E208
+2
pushes up
Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E231
+2
pushes up
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner guest ×1.0
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E264
+1
pushes up
Ryan Petersen
Ryan Petersen guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E158
-2
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2027-01-10 64d ▼ 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 40

Track record on XLE

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.5, average vs SPY +12.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
⚡ Global conflict era begins — energy and defense outperform ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +62.7% +81.1 2022-12-29
🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +5.8% -4.5 2025-06-20
⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG +4.1% -22.6 2024-12-23
🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +57.7% +43.0 2022-03-06
⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +8.3% -6.4 2023-07-08
🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +37.2% +23.6 2022-02-20
🏛️ Escalating global conflict becomes the political outlet for inflation ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +1.3% +14.8 2022-11-13
⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation ▲ LONG primary HALF +7.5% -19.6 2025-01-06
⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023 ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -0.3% -22.7 2024-01-06
⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +56.4% +30.7 2026-06-13

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding XLE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 35:50
The price of Brent crude will drop precipitously. On the day of the election, the price of Brent crude dropped 10%. Is that because something changed in the straight-of-the-move? No. It's because the market started to price in the mere possibility that the war would end sooner. We got a 10% cut in the price of Brent crude. It will go from, it's been as high as 117, it'll go from 110 to 70
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 54:41
And I think that people are sleeping on the fact that we are not nearly as dependent on oil the way that we used to be. And so even though we used to breathlessly look at Brent crude and WTI and all this stuff, I don't think it matters nearly as much as it used to.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:08:57
China has been smoothing the energy consumption globally ... we've kind of kept a damper on $200 a barrel oil. In fact, we're sub $100. ... If China somehow runs out of reserves and they need to go back into the spot market and buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E264 · 2026-03-13 ▶ 8:21
The market literally took oil from $120 a barrel to $90 a barrel, almost in, ... there is no path to a sustained conflict. ... a coordinated release of about 400 million barrels
Brad Gerstner Brad Gerstner support ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E264 · 2026-03-13 ▶ 6:14
My suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration... The United States produces 20 million barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 million barrels a day. This is a modest problem for the United States.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 1:11:04
the trend in oil is inexorable, and it's down. ... on a per-barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.
Chamath Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 30:39
It double and triples down the ability to monetize oil and start to invest those returns in future projects that have a much better ROI. All of that leads to cheaper energy.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 19:14
I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA. And I think that they've taken their first shot and I don't think it's their last.
Sacks Sacks oppose ×1 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 11:37
President Trump accomplished that. We're not in a forever war. We're not in a war with Iran.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:34:37
I mean, you could see oil double, double. What happens to the economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything, of inflation. If you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a barrel, it's not good.
Tucker Carlson Tucker Carlson support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:30:20
Their conventional weapons are fearsome and could do great damage to our allies, to Israel and to American assets in that area and also to energy production in countries that we rely on. So I think the downsides are really kind of overwhelming. I think a protracted, meaning anything over a day or two engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the presidency.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 34:19
This bill passed by one vote margin. It was hanging on by a thread. And if it failed, you get basically hundreds of billions of tax increases, which we don't need right now.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E226 · 2025-05-02 ▶ 41:41
This past week, Besson said that the tax bill will allow you to fully deduct all the PPE and all of the incidental costs of building a factory... The point is, that thing would create an absolute economic bonanza if it were to get passed.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E226 · 2025-05-02 ▶ 16:13
But I do think that this sets us up for a Trump boom in the future. It's just that a lot of these changes take time to play out.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 36:47
Well, I think the proposal that I've heard from this administration that we heard from Howard Lutnick when we met with him was they're going to cut all taxes for people making less than $150,000 a year, so get the tax rate to zero.
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 33:05
One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good. So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E215 · 2025-02-15 ▶ 27:58
And by the way, that language about dominating AI and winning the global race, that is in President Trump's executive order from week one. So this is very much elaborating on the official policy of this administration.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:52:37
So the number one thing that that EO does is rescind the Biden EO, which we talked about in this podcast, I don't know how many episodes ago, but you remember it was this 100-page monstrosity of burdensome regulation.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 16:03
And what I saw was a very broad-based embrace of business people, because I think that the president understands how important it is to make sure that economically, America is just firing on all cylinders.
Aaron Levie Aaron Levie support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E208 · 2024-12-20 ▶ 44:43
there's actually this total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 14:53
I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.
Joe Lonsdale Joe Lonsdale support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 7:28
I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 4:43
So I just think deregulation and simplifying regulations and the tax code is going to lead to an immense amount of growth
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 43:34
I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 43:16
Look, if the federal budget gets to $3 trillion and regulation gets cut, if you get 50% of the regulations in federal agencies cut, I think you unleash an economic sonic boom. I'm all in on DOGE.