🏦 Levered pension unwind spills into US credit
The UK being forced to bail out its LDI pension system turns levered pensions into forced sellers, and that selling spills into US debt markets - CLOs and junk debt - with contagion risk to the rest of the credit complex. Chamath's dated guess is that the next half-trillion to trillion dollars of Western public money goes to subsidizing something broken at home, the UK pension system or the high-yield credit markets, rather than to anything abroad.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT HYG
expression · bearish rates
MISS
outcome · R -7.8% · α -30.4%
2023-10-14
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT HYG (primary play). HYG rose 7.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -7.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.6%
→ α = -7.8 − (+22.6) = -30.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +14.8% — did HYG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-10-14)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | HYG | etf | PRIMARY | he names junk debt specifically as the thing that needs subsidizing |
| ▼ SHORT | BKLN | etf | adjacent | leveraged loans are the CLO collateral he names as the spillover channel |
| ▼ SHORT | JNK | etf | adjacent | second high-yield proxy |
Mention log
Chamath
rates w=0.88 · n=16
· E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:06:56
SUPPORT
“If I was a betting man, I spent the, I would guess that the next half a trillion to a trillion dollars that is spent in Western world economies will be to subsidize something that's broken internally inside of one of our countries, whether it's the UK pension system or whether it's the high yield credit markets and it will not be to finance military adventurism in Russia.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E100 2022-10-14 | init | +30.6 | 30.6 | E100 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.88] |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E149 silent |