🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:17 SUPPORT

“With every single one of them, it was all about like my orientation for getting bigger, going deeper, going harder, going stronger, making this thing bigger.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:48 SUPPORT

“You're talking about the military-industrial complex is going to benefit massively from this. The longer this drags out, the more the conflict in Taiwan heats up, the more we're going to invest in our military.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:10 SUPPORT

“And so, of course, these generals have to push for war because as long as they're girding for war, they're guaranteed to have for them a very lucrative job once they leave the military.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E115 (2023-02-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:34 SUPPORT

“I think there are a lot of interests who benefit from war and I think the foreign policy establishment is funded by those interests and it's kind of wired for war”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E130 (2023-05-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:09 SUPPORT

“But the reason that broke, quite frankly, is because the lobbying power of the military industrial complex is so great in both the Republican and Democratic parties that they basically wanted the sequester over to keep raising the defense budget.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E130 (2023-05-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 57:22 OPPOSE

“This is Biden's signature legislation is creating energy independence for America, which will have an enormous peace dividend. You will not fight these stupid endless wars.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E131 (2023-06-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 11:46 SUPPORT

“Especially if the Ukraine war is still going on because we're that close to being in a direct shooting war with Russia, which could lead to a nuclear war.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E131 (2023-06-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 11:53 OPPOSE

“That war seems to be contained. I'll be more worried about the relationship with China.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E131 (2023-06-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 11:59 SUPPORT

“I don't think it's contained. It's escalating. And as of yesterday, there seems to be some conflagration between Kosovo and Serbia. That's kicking up. So all of a sudden, we're talking about a totally different European land war.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 28:49 SUPPORT

“So we are out of 155-millimeter artillery shells. We cannot produce enough. This is the crazy thing. We spent $800 billion a year plus on the Pentagon and our national defense. We're out of ammo. I mean, we must be getting so royally ripped off by the military industrial complex.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:55 SUPPORT

“we have created a very dangerous revolving door between our most critical institutions and the largest industrial companies in the United States. And that revolving door creates all kinds of conflicts of interest. And those things get sorted out via revenue and dollars and profits.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=0.86 · n=7 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 26:01 OPPOSE

“And I've yet to meet a single parent who said to me, I care so much about this Ukraine situation, I would be willing to put my children in harm's way to fight for the defense of Europe. Okay, so those data points tell me at a very minimum, we need more of this discussion, more of this debate, not less.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E135 (2023-07-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:00 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“And I think you could see now over the next few months a full mobilization in Russia.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:16:25 SUPPORT

“Now, you know who it's an asset for is the military industrial complex, because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend 2% of their GDP on defense.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:15:24 SUPPORT

“it's obviously going to require a significant influx of capital by some estimates up to $2 trillion to increase the security capacity of NATO”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E137 (2023-07-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:53 SUPPORT

“I do think that the solution is 10 more Palmer Luckeys. I mean, I think the Silicon Valley's anti-supporting the military is a crazy position that needs to change and we should make more weapons and have VC-backed companies making weapon systems”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E143 (2023-08-25) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:11 SUPPORT

“It's a combination of being trapped in legacy thinking where we have to be the policemen of the world combined with all the big donors in the party, many of whom are wrapped up with the military industrial complex, want to contribute to that.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E144 (2023-09-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:16 OPPOSE

“And the people who are attacking him now are all these neocons. It's basically the whole military industrial complex. It's all the bought and paid for politicians and think tanks who want America to be in these forever wars. So I think he's being attacked by the right people, and that's going to help him.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E146 (2023-09-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 9:07 SUPPORT

“both Republicans and Democrats want more military spending. I don't hear anybody really argue for cutting military spending ... but the Democrats are completely on board with war now”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E147 (2023-09-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:22 SUPPORT

“From 2015 to 2021, we could have gone along with efforts under the Minsk Accords to resolve this conflict in the Donbass peacefully, but we never did that. We never gave it any support.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 16:28 OPPOSE

“And I think there is growing opposition to a blank check as long as it takes policy towards Ukraine. We've already appropriated over 100 billion. What's the return on investment of that? The counteroffensive failed.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E149 (2023-10-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:13 SUPPORT

“That artillery stockpile was basically taken and given to Ukraine. Remember, we ran out of the key type of ammunition in the Ukraine War, which is 155-millimeter artillery shells. That's why we gave them cluster bombs. The US is already dangerously low on ammunition, and that's before we get potentially another war or another front in this larger global conflagration that's happening.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E151 (2023-10-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:49 SUPPORT

“our industrial capacity is so hollowed out that it's going to take us five plus years to replace our stockpiles of artillery ammunition, of javelins, of stingers”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E151 (2023-10-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 22:02 SUPPORT

“there's significant material and industrial production shortages, not just in the US, but around the world, to support rising conventional wars that seem to be scaling all over”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E152 (2023-11-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:39 SUPPORT

“I've shared my point of view for a couple of years now. I think the US is in a, call it subconscious conflict escalatory state that would continue to drive us into these sorts of conflict”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E152 (2023-11-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 15:06 SUPPORT

“Will policymakers in Washington change their tune or change their perspective on this? Probably not, the uniparty of both Republicans and Democrats are still seems to be a majority who want to fund another 61 billion for Ukraine.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 11:43 SUPPORT

“The problem is that with every war, the mainstream media starts propagandizing for the wars, and they'll basically demonize whoever it is that we're going to go to war with and explaining why they're a huge threat. They'll engage in threat inflation, and so the American people end up supporting it.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E161 (2024-01-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 12:48 OPPOSE

“I can't imagine anybody would want to do more military action at this point in time when the American public is exhausted from it.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E163 (2024-01-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:37 OPPOSE

“The majority of people don't want to be involved in foreign wars. That's across both parties.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E164 (2024-02-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:49 SUPPORT

“And when it does happen, you get this lunatic fringe who unfortunately are some of the leaders of the Republican Party calling for a larger war against Iran.”