Alphabet Inc.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 2:41

these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed-source alternatives and open-source alternatives, probably within the next three or four months ... we are seeing the cost of that incremental unit of intelligence being driven further and further down

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 5:28

the market structure that we have right now is there's two markets ... And then there's Commodity Intelligence, which is everybody else, including all the open models. And they're not competing on being at the frontier. They're competing on price

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 30:44

I think Jensen is going all in on open source based on these two acquisitions, Hugging Face and Poolside... He is going for it. He is going to own open source. And that is a really interesting moment in time for us to look at, because we were sitting here six months ago, 12 months ago, open source would never catch up.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 35:08

go? It goes up into the cloud and then comes back down into Silicon Valley, polarizing more wealth. And that's where ... I will predict it now, they're going to ban Waymos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 41:39

If you think you are bringing about the singularity — and let's face it, he probably is in the lead to do that, to bring about recursive self-improvement — he should defend this future.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 45:03

I happen to believe, having looked at this and thought about it, I think that it is possible. I think it is likely to happen soon. People I've talked to in industry do think it's real. ... which is why I think RSI is probably the future.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 27:46

wrap it in its own harness, it decays in capability. When you take an open source model and you use any other open source model, it improves ... there are all kinds of ways of using open source technologies that are meaningfully more performant and dramatically cheaper than the closed source alternative.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 44:07

I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable, ... a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence. ... their lead is growing because they're on the way to

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 23:17

You just look at the pricing here of GLM 2 versus Claude Opus, and it is 90% cheaper ... increasingly, corporate America is going to embrace these solutions. ... open-source is the safer bet for us. And that's what's happening in corporate America today and inside of startups.

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 49:12

can orchestrate these open source 150 IQ intellects. ... a very plausible outcome is one which frontier tokens are 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume. And that's good for everyone.

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 23:17

I think Anthropic's growth rate is going to slow considerably next year, ... There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year. I think maybe they could triple, get to 300 or 400

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 51:47

I actually was going to say 4-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable... the over-under really is 500 billion exit ARR for next year, and I think they think they'll do the over... the Anthropic IPO is really important for the market — everyone's going to be looking to Anthropic's quarterly earnings as the pace car.

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 8:01

[On $2T:] these leaks are always coming from the bankers who probably lost lead left... if it comes out at two trillion, it probably means the roadshow went incredibly well. People do want to own this. [I said 3 to 4 trillion] was a market clearing price... Whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that... 4-500 billion is within the zone of realistic and achievable.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 16:11

it is way too early to count Gemini out on building incredible specialized models. They have the best video data. They have the best life sciences data. ... if you can be the cloud service provider with that mixture of models, which is what Google GCP can now be, I'm going to sign up for working with GCP

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 12:32

I still think Google will be the number one AI company because they have so many people using AI inside of their products already... They will be the number one AI company in terms of consumer usage by far, I think, this year.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 9:54

Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. ... it had forecast 100 billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that ... Now it looks like they're going to do it with a couple of months to spare. So their estimates are going up, I mean, 110, 120 or higher for end of year ARR.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 29:54

I hear a lot of people saying 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars. ... it's going to be run rating over 100 billion maybe by the end of the year. That's like 10 to 15 times revenue. That is not that much for a company that just grew 10x and is rumored to be profitable in Q2.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 18:13

Elon comes out and says, not so fast. We're entering the singularity and the frontier models are way further ahead than people think. I believe that to be true. ... Jensen came out this week and said, closed models are actually cheaper. ... explains why they continue to run away with it on the revenue side

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 12:32

the difference between the open source models I'm using ... the Frontier models are not necessary anymore. They're just not necessary. ... I'm still going with open source and Gemini being the leaders in this space.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E284 · 2026-08-08 ▶ 9:54

the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly. I think it's a very powerful duopoly. I don't think it's being commoditized. ... Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. Started the year at 10, ... people are willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E283 · 2026-07-31 ▶ 45:03

You're going to see some of the major customers of Anthropic and OpenAI — the eight and nine-figure customers, people spending 50 million, 100 million a year — they're leaving... Eleven Labs, Figma, Lovable... they're all working on their own models... my team has installed Kimi. It is 80% or 90% cheaper already... [and] a friend of ours in the inference space has a customer who just moved nine figures off the Frontier Labs onto GLM 5.2... that's going to be a massive headwind against these companies, massive.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E283 · 2026-07-31 ▶ 38:13

Peter Thiel once said that monopolies pretend to be commodities... the market for Frontier AI is already a duopoly... the AI duopoly has a big incentive to promote anything that suggests that they're not actually in complete control of this market, but I think they are... Anthropic breaking into 70 plus billion of ARR [with 80%+ gross margins improving], OpenAI did more net new ARR in July than all of Q2... [per Dwarkesh] demand 10x-ing while compute builds at 3x means compute prices rise — only the most lucrative algorithms can afford to compete for compute. It's a self-reinforcing flywheel... like Apple and Android — Android got the share, Apple got the monetization.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution E282 · 2026-07-24 ▶ 1:12:40

If you want to bet on AI, I think the best public market stock to own is Google... GCP is probably the best suited enterprise layer to capture value with AI... they're model agnostic... worst-case scenario, they have the lowest cost infrastructure in the world to run other people's models... they just took $100 billion mark-to-market on Anthropic in one quarter, plus 10% of SpaceX, plus Waymo... The multiple is kind of ridiculous right now.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution E282 · 2026-07-24 ▶ 1:09:31

Google's 25 year average return on invested capital ... you give these guys the benefit of the doubt. ... an incredible silicon business. The best thing that can happen to them is 500 different models proliferate and they support all of them because they will make so much money at the silicon layer,

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E282 · 2026-07-24 ▶ 34:59

I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. ... they're going to get caught in a trap. ... They overspend. They don't have the same profitability and it doesn't pencil out. ... have all moved en masse, GLM 5.2, making their own models. ... They are going to start losing a lot of customers to open source,