📈 Quality software grows through the de-rating — Snowflake
The multiple compression is survivable for the handful of software businesses compounding fast enough: Snowflake grows free cash flow over 100% this year and 80-90% next, so it grows through a 50% multiple cut in short order. In a flight to quality the 'must-own' high-growth names keep the bid while the nice-to-own long tail gets orphaned.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 55.0 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG SNOW
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -42.1% · vs SPY -30.4%
2023-03-26
born 2022-03-26 (E73) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
IGV ·
The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
SHORT
EMBER 34.3
← stronger than this idea (11.5)
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (IGV)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SNOW (primary play). SNOW fell 42.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -42.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -11.7% → vs SPY = -42.1 − (-11.7) = -30.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-03-26)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 48% · n=22
· E81 (2022-05-23) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 31:23
SUPPORT
“Last year, we distributed over $6 billion, which was more than all the venture we raised in our first five funds. Why? Not because I didn't like Unity or I didn't like Snowflake. ... Because there we haven't sold a share of Snowflake.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 48% · n=22
· E73 (2022-03-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 23:22
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“Snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over 100% a year. Next year, probably, you know, 80 or 90% free cash flow, not just revenue, free cash flow. ... That business, so let's say we reduce the multiple by 50%, but the company's growing top line and free cash flow by 100%. Doesn't take you very long to grow through the multiple compression.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -54.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E73 2022-03-26 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E73 born by Brad Gerstner (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E73 2022-03-26 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E73 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -2.1 | 50.7 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -2.0 | 48.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.9 | 46.8 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.9 | 44.9 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.7 | 41.4 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | reinforce | +10.6 | 51.9 | E81 Brad Gerstner support x3 |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -2.1 | 49.8 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.9 | 45.9 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.8 | 44.1 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.6 | 39.0 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.5 | 36.0 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E121 silent |