📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash
A democratic-socialist mayoralty in New York — rent freeze, $30 minimum wage, city-run grocery stores, police replaced by social workers — pushes out the top decile that pays roughly two-thirds of the city's tax base, so New York property marks down and the fiscal base cracks rather than absorbing the program. Chamath's tradeable expression is an outright short of New York real estate; Jason's mechanism is voting with your feet to Austin and Miami.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 56.4 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT SLG
expression · bearish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +12.2% · α -7.1%
2026-06-28
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-06-28 → 2026-06-28 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SLG (primary play). SLG fell 12.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +12.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.3%
→ α = +12.2 − (+19.3) = -7.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +31.5% — did SLG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Ben Shapiro, Chamath, Jason, Keith Rabois | proxy-sensitive: ESRT→HIT (+32.1%); VNO→MISS (-4.5%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-06-28)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | SLG | stock | PRIMARY | SL Green is the pure-play Manhattan landlord — NYC office values and tax-base flight hit its NAV directly |
| ▼ SHORT | ESRT | stock | adjacent | Empire State Realty is NYC-only across office and residential, so a rent freeze plus outmigration hits both segments |
| ▼ SHORT | VNO | stock | adjacent | Vornado's Manhattan office and retail book carries the same city-specific policy risk |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E233 (2025-06-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 46:40
SUPPORT
“two thirds of the tax base in New York is paid for by the top 10 percent who are leaving. People will leave. They will see that Austin and Miami are fantastic cities to live in at half the price, a third of the price, and you get a tax break.”
KE
Keith Rabois
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.60 · n=5
· E235 (2025-07-11) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 2:14
SUPPORT
“It's safe. Yeah. It's safe right now. We'll see on November 4th. You know, as you probably heard, on July 4th was the first time in recorded history that there were no shootings or no murders in New York on that day. So right now, things are in pretty good shape, but we may be leaving New York quickly.”
BE
Ben Shapiro
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.60 · n=5
· E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:02:39
SUPPORT
· horizon 24mo
“It'll take a year, two years for those policies to actually hit and destroy all of New York.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -51.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E233 2025-06-28 | init | +34.0 | 34.0 | E233 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.97] |
| E233 2025-06-28 | reinforce | +12.4 | 46.4 | E233 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.9 | 44.6 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | reinforce | +7.5 | 52.1 | E235 Keith Rabois support x2 (new voice) [w=0.60] |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -2.1 | 50.0 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -2.0 | 48.0 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | reinforce | +8.4 | 56.4 | E238 Ben Shapiro support x3 (new voice) [w=0.60] |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -2.3 | 54.2 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -2.2 | 52.0 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -2.1 | 49.9 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.9 | 46.0 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.8 | 44.2 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.8 | 42.4 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -1.7 | 40.7 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.6 | 39.1 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -1.5 | 36.0 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E278 silent |