📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-06-28 → 2026-06-28 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT SLG (primary play). SLG fell 12.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +12.2% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.3% → vs SPY = +12.2 − (+19.3) = -7.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +31.5% — did SLG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   ▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Ben Shapiro, Chamath, Jason, Keith Rabois | proxy-sensitive: ESRT→HIT (+32.1%); VNO→MISS (-4.5%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 48% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 20% of moves

+14.6 → net +14.6

Ben Shapiro 30% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 17% of moves

+12.2 → net +12.2

Keith Rabois 30% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 16% of moves

+11.8 → net +11.8

⏳ decay drained -60.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one