⚡ Solar wins alternative energy — nuclear and wind lose
Solar is an inexhaustible supply on an exponentially falling cost curve, and every other source is derivative of it. Nuclear dies to NIMBYism regardless of its physics, wind is a distraction — capital and installed capacity concentrate in solar.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 48.5 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG TAN
expression · bullish energy
MISS
outcome · R -14.8% · α -4.1%
2022-06-13
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TAN (primary play). TAN fell 14.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -14.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -10.7% → α = -14.8 − (-10.7) = -4.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: ENPH→HIT (+20.7%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-06-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TAN | etf | PRIMARY | global solar basket — direct expression of 'the future of alternative energy is solar' |
| ▲ LONG | ENPH | stock | adjacent | residential solar electronics, levered to installation growth |
| ▲ LONG | FSLR | stock | adjacent | US panel manufacturer, direct play on the falling module cost curve |
Mention log
Chamath
energy w=0.55 · n=22
· E70 (2022-02-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 17:52
SUPPORT
“The real solution is to actually go fully alternative and to go to renewable energy because you can today deploy solar vastly more aggressively in the United States. Look, at the end of the day, the thing that is completely abundant and has the best implications all around is solar. ... And I think our real solution is solar. It's practical. It can be done today and it can be done right now.”
Friedberg
energy w=0.78 · n=18
· E70 (2022-02-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 47:28
OPPOSE
“Just to give you one counterpoint to your statement about energy independence arising potentially from solar, to generate a gigawatt of capacity and industrial scale solar farm would take about 7,500 acres. ... So the actual amortized cost over the lifetime of that solar installation works out to something on the order of 15 cents a kilowatt hour. Whereas if you do it on an industrial scale, it works out to about 3 cents a kilowatt hour.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -41.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E35 2021-06-13 | init | +32.8 | 32.8 | E35 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.94] |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.3 | 31.5 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.3 | 30.2 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.2 | 29.0 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | reinforce | +13.4 | 22.3 | E70 Chamath support x3 (new voice) [w=0.55] |
| E70 2022-02-24 | reinforce | +8.7 | 31.0 | E70 Sacks support x1 [w=0.94] |
| E70 2022-02-24 | oppose | -9.3 | 21.7 | E70 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.78] |
| E70 2022-02-24 | reinforce | +21.1 | 42.9 | E70 Jason support x3 (new voice) |
| E71 2022-03-05 | reinforce | +5.6 | 48.5 | E71 Chamath support x3 [w=0.55] |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.9 | 46.5 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.6 | 39.5 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.6 | 37.9 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.5 | 36.4 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E82 silent |