🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:04 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“the trend in oil is inexorable, and it's down. ... on a per-barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E264 (2026-03-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 8:21 SUPPORT

“The market literally took oil from $120 a barrel to $90 a barrel, almost in, ... there is no path to a sustained conflict. ... a coordinated release of about 400 million barrels”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) no commodities track record · E264 (2026-03-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 6:14 SUPPORT

“My suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration... The United States produces 20 million barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 million barrels a day. This is a modest problem for the United States.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E276 (2026-06-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:08:57 OPPOSE

“China has been smoothing the energy consumption globally ... we've kind of kept a damper on $200 a barrel oil. In fact, we're sub $100. ... If China somehow runs out of reserves and they need to go back into the spot market and buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.”