🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 13:44 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“the Trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026 ... by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points. ... forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:59 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“we are a coiled spring. Closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI ... that will really start to show itself in 26 ... short the US economy here. It is ready to rip. ... asset prices in general, I think will do well.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 15:45 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“[2026 GDP growth?] 4.6%.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E261 (2026-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:03 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“we are at the beginning of an economic boom. ... the CapEx for this year that's expected, just from the four leading hyperscalers, is $600 billion, ... a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there. ... I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E261 (2026-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 55:03 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“We're going to print 6% [GDP]... I agree [that this is the beginning of a new golden age].”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E268 (2026-04-10) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:17 SUPPORT

“the drawdown in this period over Iran was only down about five to seven percent on S&P and Nasdaq. ... if we land the plane on these two things, I think it's off to the races in the market. ... heading into America 250, July 4th, the market could really take off.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E269 (2026-04-17) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:03 OPPOSE

“I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E272 (2026-05-08) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:01:32 SUPPORT

“80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, ... It's hard to imagine a more Goldilocks situation for the United States ... At some point, you just have to acknowledge USA is winning.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E272 (2026-05-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:58 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“I think we have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. But I think it's literally in the hundreds of days from now, 500, you're going to have to have an important reckoning moment. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see it in actual benefit.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E275 (2026-05-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:18:25 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“We're at the outset of a boom right now caused by bespoke software proliferating throughout the economy and being used by firms that never thought of themselves as tech firms... job postings for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year... 4.3 percent unemployment... that doesn't even include the blue collar boom... hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E276 (2026-06-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 40:42 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting. Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3% unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high,”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E276 (2026-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 43:48 SUPPORT

“The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to ... people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. ... an extra 15 head count to our engineering squads ... everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E277 (2026-06-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:20:51 SUPPORT

“I think the market's going to the moon.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E279 (2026-07-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 40:32 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster, it grew at 12%. ... there's just no data to support this idea that in the present, AI is causing job loss.”