🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E296 (2026-11-07) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 6:07 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“Then the second thing is that the economy is not that bad. I mean, in fact, it's quite good. Just today, we had a new jobs report. It was a very robust jobs report.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E295 (2026-10-30) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:16:24 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“So I think the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was 2.5% in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now.”

Jason macro 63% · n=30 · E294 (2026-10-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:34:19 SUPPORT

“Yeah, I agree that he is doing a great job in that, like better than any president I've ever seen in my lifetime in terms of getting the economy rocking.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E294 (2026-10-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:33:24 SUPPORT

“It pulls through massively increased wages for middle class and skilled labor.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E292 (2026-10-10) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:18:55 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“What has superintelligence created? First of all, people's 401Ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to the economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up. This is a driver right now of nothing but positive economic trends.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E291 (2026-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:12 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“You get the price of diesel down and that'll be the last remaining unlock on inflation. That'll bring rates down and the economy is going to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.”

Jason macro 63% · n=30 · E291 (2026-10-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 58:00 BRUSH_OFF

“I hate to put a little rain on this hopium parade here, but two important charts as we go into the midterms.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E291 (2026-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 54:41 SUPPORT

“But I tend to think that we're going to see a little bit more growth than that is expected. I tend to think we're going to probably see a little bit more revision.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E290 (2026-09-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:21:55 REVERSAL

“If you think that you have 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.”

Friedberg macro 46% · n=40 · E290 (2026-09-26) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 20:03 SUPPORT

“Maybe we are seeing the AI wave under way right now, the productivity wave, the productivity boom.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E289 (2026-09-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 31:02 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“There's no evidence of that. Quite the contrary, it's all been job gains.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E279 (2026-07-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 40:32 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster, it grew at 12%. ... there's just no data to support this idea that in the present, AI is causing job loss.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E277 (2026-06-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:20:51 SUPPORT

“I think the market's going to the moon.”

Friedberg macro 46% · n=40 · E276 (2026-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 43:48 SUPPORT

“The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to ... people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. ... an extra 15 head count to our engineering squads ... everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E276 (2026-06-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 40:42 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting. Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3% unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high,”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E275 (2026-05-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:18:25 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“We're at the outset of a boom right now caused by bespoke software proliferating throughout the economy and being used by firms that never thought of themselves as tech firms... job postings for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year... 4.3 percent unemployment... that doesn't even include the blue collar boom... hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E272 (2026-05-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:58 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“I think we have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. But I think it's literally in the hundreds of days from now, 500, you're going to have to have an important reckoning moment. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see it in actual benefit.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro 50% · n=10 · E272 (2026-05-08) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:01:32 SUPPORT

“80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, ... It's hard to imagine a more Goldilocks situation for the United States ... At some point, you just have to acknowledge USA is winning.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E269 (2026-04-17) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:03 OPPOSE

“I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro 50% · n=10 · E268 (2026-04-10) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:17 SUPPORT

“the drawdown in this period over Iran was only down about five to seven percent on S&P and Nasdaq. ... if we land the plane on these two things, I think it's off to the races in the market. ... heading into America 250, July 4th, the market could really take off.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E261 (2026-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 55:03 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“We're going to print 6% [GDP]... I agree [that this is the beginning of a new golden age].”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E261 (2026-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:03 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“we are at the beginning of an economic boom. ... the CapEx for this year that's expected, just from the four leading hyperscalers, is $600 billion, ... a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there. ... I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.”

Chamath macro 53% · n=47 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:59 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“we are a coiled spring. Closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI ... that will really start to show itself in 26 ... short the US economy here. It is ready to rip. ... asset prices in general, I think will do well.”

Friedberg macro 46% · n=40 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 15:45 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“[2026 GDP growth?] 4.6%.”

Sacks macro 56% · n=40 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 13:44 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“the Trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026 ... by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points. ... forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%.”