🪙 Decentralized collateral-backed stablecoins have proven peg-resilient
Armstrong's read three weeks before Terra/Luna: over-collateralized decentralized stablecoins (DAI, Frax) run two-asset stable/collateral systems where a black-swan peg break is theoretically possible but has not actually happened, and DAI's demonstrated resiliency plus auditable smart-contract code with an inherent bug bounty makes the decentralized design a credible, trust-minimized alternative to opaque fiat-backed issuers. Scored on DAI's peg holding.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 17.5 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG DAI-USD
expression · bullish crypto
PARTIAL
outcome · R +0.1% · α +2.3%
2023-04-23
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-04-23 → 2023-04-23 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG DAI-USD (primary play). DAI-USD rose 0.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +0.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -2.2% → α = +0.1 − (-2.2) = +2.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: nobody | proxy-sensitive: cg:ethereum→MISS (-36.6%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-04-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | DAI-USD | crypto | PRIMARY | the decentralized stablecoin whose peg resiliency is the literal claim; priced by yfinance the same way tether-is-a-fraud-2021 uses USDT-USD |
| ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | crypto | adjacent | MakerDAO/DAI and Frax are Ethereum-native — the DeFi collateral stack is the second-order beneficiary if decentralized pegs are the winning design |
Mention log
BR
Brian Armstrong
(guest ×0.5)
no crypto track record
· E77 (2022-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 48:15
SUPPORT
“Now, I think stable coins like DAI and others, they've been able to create these relatively complex systems that have sort of one asset, which is intended to be stable, but another one, which is sort of the collateral. ... And you could imagine various black swan events where, you know, the peg would get broken and things like that. But it really hasn't happened yet in DAI, and it's shown a lot of resiliency, which I've been very impressed by.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E77 2022-04-23 | init | +17.5 | 17.5 | E77 born by Brian Armstrong (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.50] |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E125 silent |