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🏛️ Affirmative-action ruling propagates into corporate DEI and ESG

Chamath's first- and second-order derivative call on the June 2023 SCOTUS decision: legacy and athletic admissions get sued next, then the race-based hiring and recruiting programs at large private employers get challenged on the same civil-rights grounds, and downstream some ESG checkbox requirements become outright illegal. Changes are slow and then fast, and they land on private enterprise, not just universities.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 85.9 GREEN
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT ESGU
expression · bearish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -24.1% · α -48.7%
2024-07-01
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT ESGU (primary play). ESGU rose 24.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -24.1% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.6%α = -24.1 − (+24.6) = -48.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: +0.5% — did ESGU move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-07-01)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT ESGUetf PRIMARY largest US ESG-mandate vehicle; loose proxy for the DEI/ESG screening complex Chamath says gets legally unwound
▼ SHORT DSIetf adjacent oldest social-screen index fund; the screens themselves are what the ruling puts at legal risk
▼ SHORT ESGVetf adjacent second major US ESG fund wrapper exposed to the same mandate risk

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E135 (2023-07-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 29:01 SUPPORT
“And frankly, downstream, how ESG works, because all these ESG check boxes now, some of them will actually become illegal, right?”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E135 (2023-07-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 31:19 SUPPORT
“DEI, to Chamath's point, it is illegal to hire people based on race, gender, any of those criteria, obviously.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E147 (2023-09-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 42:31 SUPPORT
“Remember what Brian Armstrong did at Coinbase? He basically just said, listen, we have a mission here. It's around crypto. We're going to focus 100% on this mission.”
CO
Coleman Hughes (guest ×0.5) no politics-market track record · E147 (2023-09-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:40 OPPOSE
“I mean, in a word, no, because by that point, it's an intractable problem. I've talked to CEOs that ask this question to me over and over again.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E149 (2023-10-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:15 SUPPORT
“Yeah, and I would just be careful for you to add the word youthful because I think it's a get out of jail free card. It's definitely stupidity. The question is, is the cake baked? And if the cake is baked, then there's a big argument to never hiring these people.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E149 (2023-10-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 43:39 SUPPORT
“If they're going to create a cancel culture where people get canceled for their decade-old tweets and so forth, then they should be prepared to live by that standard. ... So I wouldn't cancel them forever. But look, I do think that it's fine and appropriate for someone like Belacan to say, I don't want to hire you people.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E149 (2023-10-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:22 SUPPORT
“So no, I don't think it's out of line. I think it's an important lesson for people. This is not freedom of speech.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E157 (2023-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:31:38 SUPPORT
“And the DEI stuff is a road to nowhere.... Identity politics and DEI, it's just a dead end when you start judging people based on any criteria other than their character and performance in the world.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E157 (2023-12-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:33:15 SUPPORT
“I think what Dill Ackman is doing is brave because he is taking on DEI, and that is, historically, that's been one of the most dangerous things you can do.... And finally, we have someone who's willing to take it on and challenge it, challenge it at an ideological level and then challenge it at like a just grift level.”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 10:45 SUPPORT
“My biggest political loser is the DEI movement... I think that that movement is going to take a big hit and took a big hit the end of this year and will continue to, I think, be questioned by donors and supporters of the ideologies of that movement.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:16 SUPPORT
“sustainable asset ownership and ESG ownership across the world shrank by 15%, which you may say is that a big number or not, that's $5 trillion. ... So when the money starts to scurry, I think that you can pretty much expect that people's patience and support of these kinds of movements are waning.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:12 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“My best trend is the return of colorblindness as the standard and the pushback on DEI. ... I think that this is a good trend and hopefully it continues next year because America should be a colorblind meritocracy.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:01:40 SUPPORT
“I too, Sacks, was looking at the issue of DEI and I framed mine as DEI dying and meritocracy thriving.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:15 SUPPORT
“if there is an incident or a near incident, you're going to see lawsuits that are going to focus on this issue.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:44 SUPPORT
“eventually when this stuff gets litigated, as it just did at the Supreme Court, you start to pick this apart and you see that there's a lot of evidence that they are actually engaged in overt discrimination against certain groups like Asian Americans.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 31:00 SUPPORT
“I, there is no company where I have majority control, where I have an HR department. ... And what is left over is the very dark part of HR in most organizations, which is the police person, the policeman, right? What is Sacks called? The commissar. That is why everybody hates HR. I have never met a company where that is a successful role over long periods of time.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:57 SUPPORT
“I think a lot of founders don't understand that DEI is not something they have to do. They don't have to have a DEI organization. This has somehow become a thing. It's not required. I think people are realizing, why would you do that? Why would you create this large bureaucracy in the company that undercuts the meritocracy, that adds a lot of costs, and that slows you down?”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:17 SUPPORT
“if they've been given the job DEI and they've been given the job to do trust and safety, they're looking to fill their time and make an impact. You got to, I think, maybe have less of these people. I honestly think it's about cutting people.”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 39:10 SUPPORT
“And so I'm not a huge fan of race-based metrics or gender-based metrics. I'm generally more oriented around being blind to those variables and focus much more on the variables that can actually influence the outcome of the organization.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=1.02
5 scoring events · 42% of moves
+62.0 → net +62.0
Sacks
Sacks w=0.97
6 scoring events · 25% of moves
+36.6 → net +36.6
Jason
Jason w=1.00
5 scoring events · 23% of moves
+33.8 → net +33.8
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84
2 scoring events · 7% of moves
+10.0 → net +10.0
CO
Coleman Hughes guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 4% of moves
+0.0 / -6.0 → net -6.0

⏳ decay drained -94.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E135 2023-07-01 init +42.9 42.9 E135 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.02]
E135 2023-07-01 reinforce +10.3 53.2 E135 Jason support x1 (new voice)
E136 2023-07-09 decay -2.1 51.0 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -2.0 49.0 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -2.0 47.0 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -1.9 45.1 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -1.8 43.3 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -1.7 41.6 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -1.7 39.9 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -1.6 38.3 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -1.5 36.8 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 oppose -6.0 30.8 E147 Coleman Hughes opposes x2 [w=0.50]
E147 2023-09-29 reinforce +15.0 45.8 E147 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97]
E148 2023-10-07 decay -1.8 44.0 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 reinforce +8.4 52.4 E149 Jason support x2
E149 2023-10-13 reinforce +6.9 59.3 E149 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E149 2023-10-13 reinforce +6.2 65.5 E149 Chamath support x2 [w=1.02]
E150 2023-10-20 decay -2.6 62.9 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -2.5 60.4 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -2.4 58.0 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -2.3 55.7 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 reinforce +8.0 63.6 E157 Jason support x3
E157 2023-12-16 reinforce +5.3 68.9 E157 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E158 2023-12-23 decay -2.8 66.2 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +7.7 73.8 E159 Friedberg support x3 (new voice) [w=0.84]
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +4.8 78.6 E159 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02]
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +3.1 81.7 E159 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +2.2 83.9 E159 Jason support x1
E160 2024-01-06 decay -3.4 80.6 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 reinforce +3.0 83.5 E161 Chamath support x2 [w=1.02]
E161 2024-01-13 reinforce +2.4 85.9 E161 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E162 2024-01-19 decay -3.4 82.5 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -3.3 79.2 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -3.2 76.0 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -3.0 73.0 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -2.9 70.1 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -2.8 67.3 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 reinforce +4.9 72.2 E168 Jason support x2
E168 2024-03-01 reinforce +5.1 77.3 E168 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02]
E168 2024-03-01 reinforce +4.0 81.2 E168 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97]
E168 2024-03-01 reinforce +2.4 83.6 E168 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.84]
E169 2024-03-08 decay -3.3 80.2 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -3.2 77.0 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -3.1 74.0 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -3.0 71.0 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -2.8 68.2 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -2.7 65.4 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -2.6 62.8 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -2.5 60.3 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -2.4 57.9 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -2.3 55.6 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -2.2 53.4 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -2.1 51.2 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -2.0 49.2 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -2.0 47.2 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -1.9 45.3 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -1.8 43.5 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay -1.7 41.8 E185 silent